Society

Trump trades will run into Trump reality

14 Nov 2024

The president-elect’s victory sparked wild euphoria in markets. Now comes the realization that tariffs and immigration crackdowns threaten major costs, including the return of inflation. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the globe-spanning concerns.

China consumer is epitome of delayed gratification

4 Nov 2024

Beijing says it wants to boost consumption’s 53% share of GDP as investment-led growth fades. Yet central planning is hard to square with free-spirited spending. Rebalancing without a period of stagnation is not easy. Recent policies also suggest the old model is hard to ditch.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

Nobel prize brings global inequality back in focus

14 Oct 2024

Economist Daron Acemoglu and two colleagues shared the Swedish award for showing why some countries are rich and others poor. Their findings – democracy and rule of law matter – are a reminder that huge disparities in income among, and within, nations remain a festering issue.

Hey team: Weaker hiring means back to the office

8 Oct 2024

About 100 mln people in North America and Europe now work remotely at least some days. More CEOs, like Amazon’s Andy Jassy, want to end the practice altogether. The tension is upsetting staff and spurring defections, but a rise in joblessness would shift power back to employers.

New UK government is mired in unreal vibecession

2 Oct 2024

After winning the election, Labour leaders repeatedly warned of financial pain ahead. That helped drag consumer confidence to a six-month low in September. The economy is actually improving but this month’s budget will have to raise both much-needed money and rock-bottom morale.

Copycat drugmakers will be low-key obesity winners

25 Sep 2024

Sandoz and other generic drugmakers are preparing to make cheap versions of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drugs. They could grab a large chunk of a potentially $150 bln market. Unlike the Danish group and peer Eli Lilly, their valuations do not yet reflect the potential opportunity.

Under-fire workers spell trouble for US and Europe

17 Sep 2024

Unemployment remained low in both blocs even as interest rates rose. Staff hoarding and healthy profits averted layoffs. Now, though, US job vacancies are at the lowest since 2021 and euro zone CEOs want to hire less. If labour markets crack, recessions will be harder to avoid.

Beijing’s pension plan grasps at a utopian reality

17 Sep 2024

China is raising the retirement age for the first time since the 1950s, and increasing the number of years workers must contribute to receive payouts. Both thresholds remain low but policymakers are right to tread cautiously. Boosting the workforce in a slowing economy is risky.

The European Union risks a sad, bad future

16 Sep 2024

The EU economy is stagnating, while Russia, China and even the United States may bully the bloc. There are potential fixes, as former European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi set out last week. But the EU and its members are currently in no position to implement them.

Telegram and X expose tech platforms’ new reality

12 Sep 2024

The arrest of Pavel Durov, founder of the controversial messaging app, and the ban of X in Brazil shows state officials are not afraid to intervene in Big Tech. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what it means and how CEOs should manage the threat.

Big Pharma lacks motive to prep for new pandemics

10 Sep 2024

The WHO warned the next outbreak may be 20 times more deadly than Covid-19. Moderna’s Corona surge should encourage drugmakers to build up vaccine units for the next virus. But with investors giving little credit for one-off jabs, there’s not much incentive to invest.

Far-right’s vote win is a loss for German economy

2 Sep 2024

PM Olaf Scholz’s coalition parties got trounced in regional elections, with the extreme right-wing AfD winning more than 30% in Thuringia and Saxony. That could prompt Berlin to double down on fiscal discipline and tighten immigration rules, deepening the country’s growth woes.

Raw economics will trump migration’s sour politics

2 Sep 2024

Nearly 900 mln people would like to live in another country, but most can’t move due to political and social opposition to foreigners. These attitudes are hard to shift. But deepening demographic crises mean a migration-fuelled boost to labour supply is critical for growth.

UK’s housing mess requires costly fix

29 Aug 2024

PM Keir Starmer has pledged to build many more houses. Yet homebuilders’ shares are not pricing in a boom. Private players may prefer to sell fewer, pricier properties. More government funds would help, at the risk of further squeezing Britain’s finances.

Missing Chinese spenders deal Macau a losing hand

20 Aug 2024

Mainlanders are tightening their purse strings amidst a sluggish economy and preferring to stay closer to home. That’s weighing on the $23 bln casino enclave and companies such as SJM and Sands, which are relying on middle-class holidaymakers for a long drawn-out Covid recovery.

Mpox drugmaker’s shares may provide false comfort

16 Aug 2024

Bavarian Nordic, which makes a vaccine for the virus, gained $1 bln in value over the past week as the disease spread beyond Africa. The increase is equivalent to several million extra doses. That view, which implies a contained outbreak, may be too benign if mpox keeps mutating.

UK riots present ‘gilet jaune’ threat to Starmer

8 Aug 2024

Britain’s anti-immigration riots pose a big challenge to new PM Keir Starmer. Spending his limited budget on prisons and police is his best hope of avoiding future violence. If he fails like France’s Emmanuel Macron did with anti-tax protesters, his premiership may never recover.

Bangladesh becomes global firms’ next big unknown

6 Aug 2024

Protests may ease now Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled. But her ouster after 15 years of iron-fist rule leaves the economically struggling country of 170 mln vulnerable. Companies like H&M and Inditex that depend on it for garment-making face an anxious time ahead.

UK ratesetters can stop worrying and start cutting

31 Jul 2024

Markets are split on whether the Bank of England will lower borrowing costs from a 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday. Governor Andrew Bailey worries about services prices, wages and growth. But a glimpse into the future shows that those bugbears are less scary than they look.