Semiconductors

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

AI models’ slowdown spells end of gold rush era

13 Dec 2024

Rapid progress from building bigger systems set off a dash for data centers and chips. But progress may be slowing. Microsoft and Alphabet face less existential pressure but also new competitors, putting a question mark over the $8 trln rise in Big Tech’s market value since 2022.

Bain’s Japan chip IPO is a tough sell

3 Dec 2024

The US private equity firm will list Kioxia six years after leading the memory unit's $18 bln carve-out from Toshiba. The roughly $5 bln equity valuation means poor returns for sellers. And convincing new investors to look past Kioxia's crippling debt pile will be a slog.

Intel’s independent streak will come to an end

2 Dec 2024

Boss Pat Gelsinger is exiting the once-revolutionary chipmaker as it struggles to find a place in the future. It missed chances with Apple, Nvidia and OpenAI while its gross margin halved to 32%. A management shakeup portends a strategic one, which probably leads to a new owner.

Nvidia’s next move is to hit the road

22 Nov 2024

The $3.5 trln chipmaker gleans only 1% of sales from carmakers. Yet the unit grew 72% in the third quarter, a similar pace to rival Qualcomm. Stuffing silicon into cars could be a $140 bln market by 2028 and a crucial diversifier from relying on a few colossal data center buyers.

Nvidia’s growing cash hoard points to M&A

18 Nov 2024

The chip designer could have $175 bln on hand in two years, surpassing even Apple’s giant pile of liquidity. Combined with a more deal-friendly US president, it opens up acquisitions. Founder Jensen Huang’s broad ambition means optics, healthcare and robotics are possible.

ASML’s sunny AI destination has a cloudy roadmap

15 Nov 2024

The $270 bln semiconductor equipment maker has stuck to its 2030 sales guidance, thanks to growing data centre needs. But chipmakers’ strife, politics, and weak smartphone demand remain near-term headaches. Investors may like ASML’s destination, but the route there looks bumpy.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

ASML’s weakness flags limits of the AI boom

15 Oct 2024

The 260 bln euro chip-machine maker’s shares plunged again amid flaky demand from smartphone customers. ASML already has separate issues with Intel and China. The struggles of a key sector stock are a timely reminder that the AI wave doesn’t lift all boats.

Qualcomm’s Apple threat explains interest in Intel

8 Oct 2024

Most of the $190 bln wireless firm's revenue comes from designing chips for phones, and Apple chafes at hefty royalties. Acquiring bits or all of Intel would offer diversification and make Qualcomm a more “American” company. Mulling such a risky deal shows the company’s weakness.

Beware hallucinations in AI chipmaker IPO

2 Oct 2024

Cerebras, a wannabe Nvidia challenger, may seek a valuation as high as $8 bln, or some 29 times sales. ChatGPT hype and Arm’s success will help, but the company’s growth hinges on one customer, Abu Dhabi’s G42. Their broader circular relationship also warrants sober scrutiny.

Intel’s tempting discount is less-than-solid state

23 Sep 2024

The languishing chipmaker’s $95 bln market value might seem far below the worth of its pieces. That’s drawn interest from Qualcomm and Apollo. Thing is, Intel’s woes mean it may not be as cheap as it appears, while regulators could nix a sale of the US chip policy cornerstone.

Chip halt flags EU’s also-ran status – and Intel’s

20 Sep 2024

The troubled US chipmaker has paused a 30 bln euros semiconductor factory in Germany. Weak demand is hampering Europe’s hopes to close the semiconductor gap between itself and the US. But another leg of the problem is that Intel itself lags rivals like Nvidia and TSMC.

Intel forges path to probable capital incineration

17 Sep 2024

The troubled $90 bln chipmaker landed an Amazon contract that could catapult manufacturing and is taking steps to free up cash. Investing $20 bln at a return on capital matching rival TSMC is worth a 40% share bump today. Snag is, there are many ways Intel could be a money pit.

ASML faces bigger problems than China

16 Sep 2024

Fears of US tech export curbs have pummelled the $320 bln Dutch firm’s shares. A longer-term worry is that the growth of AI leads to new technologies, and less need for ASML’s machines that make chips smaller and efficient. That, more than trade wars, may hurt its rich valuation.

Nvidia has nothing to fear but a lack of fear

4 Sep 2024

A sell-off in the $2.6 trln chipmaker’s shares, the third this year, has little basis in industrial reality. Customers still plan to spend billions on its chips. Fickle markets and antitrust probes are risks, but a bigger one is complacency – as modeled by forebearer Intel.

Nvidia drives path Tesla would find familiar

29 Aug 2024

Like Elon Musk’s carmaker at its peak, the $3 trln chip giant has a huge lead in a transforming industry, dented only by production glitches. Unlike Tesla, Nvidia’s valuation by some measures looks fairly sane. The bigger it gets, the higher the stakes of even small hiccups.

Intel will be forced to find a plan B

26 Aug 2024

The US chipmaker staked everything on erasing rival TSMC’s technological lead. But the Taiwanese firm will invest $30 bln this year to stay ahead. That’s 15% more than Intel, and as its business shrinks, the gap will grow. Boss Pat Gelsinger is fighting a losing battle.

AMD’s $5 bln deal solidifies AI runner-up status

19 Aug 2024

The $250 bln chipmaker’s data center business will double revenue this year due to demand for artificial intelligence. Buying server maker ZT Systems should help tame rising complexity, allowing speedier deployment of AMD’s chips. Even so, it’s miles behind $3 trln leader Nvidia.

Tech stocks await AI’s real reckoning

7 Aug 2024

Some $3 trln has been wiped off US technology firms’ value, hammering artificial intelligence champions like Alphabet and Nvidia. It may be more a case of feelings and flows than shifting assumptions about the value of silicon smarts. If that changes, the true pain begins.