Renewable Energy

Data centre boom reveals AI hype’s physical limits

4 Jul 2024

The investor frenzy over artificial intelligence assumes there will be enough infrastructure to support apps like ChatGPT. But a $1 trln rush to build data centres faces planning restrictions and energy constraints. That will limit processing power and push up costs for users.

A South Korean EV reversal would inspire copycats

27 Jun 2024

Splitting out electric-car related assets was a popular ploy for firms like Renault and Geely to charge up valuations. But now conglomerate SK might go the other way by merging its loss-making battery business with another unit. As EV demand slows, similar reversals may follow.

Mining M&A stokes coal race against cleaner power

20 Jun 2024

Anglo American will soon offload dirty deposits used to make steel as part of CEO Duncan Wanblad’s overhaul. Rival sales suggest there should be plenty of suitors. Coking deals can pay off for buyers if prices stay high and green options develop slowly, but neither is assured.

Net zero arbitrage is large, but no one-way bet

14 Jun 2024

There’s a big gap between the rich world’s ambitions to reduce carbon emissions and the ability of governments to achieve that goal. Investors can try to exploit that disconnect. However, economic, technological and geopolitical constraints can quickly change in unexpected ways.

Biden’s hydrogen goals are like oil and water

4 Jun 2024

The White House wants to foster production of the abundant element as an alternative to fossil fuels, but oil and gas companies want a chance to pitch in. Environmentalists see that as a trap. Even so, there may be no choice but to extend oil majors like Exxon an olive branch.

AI will power up buyout barons’ green-energy spree

30 May 2024

Brookfield offered $6.6 bln for French solar and wind firm Neoen after EQT and KKR struck renewables deals worth $4.6 bln. Buyout barons have cash to meet the investment requirements of energy-hungry artificial intelligence, and future rate cuts mean valuations may have bottomed.

Inflation saps Inflation Reduction Act mini-me

16 May 2024

Australia is following the US with long-term support for greening the economy. But it's peanuts by comparison with just $15 bln for industry and nothing to boost sales of EVs and heat pumps. Fear of price rises and rate hikes ahead of an election has deflated ambition.

China tests EU resolve on export trade fight

14 May 2024

France’s Emmanuel Macron got little to show from President Xi Jinping’s European tour this month. In this Exchange podcast, MERICS expert Grzegorz Stec explains the difficulty of managing ties with Beijing and why balancing risk and business opportunity is so tricky.

Oil groups’ AGM rebels may lose even if they win

13 May 2024

Shell’s annual shareholder meeting will be a showdown between CEO Wael Sawan’s climate strategy and an activist group’s emission reduction proposal. Investors are unlikely to turn against the UK oil major. But the results may be disappointing even if they do force change.

Microsoft’s AI land grab becomes costly power game

1 May 2024

The tech giant is splurging on artificial intelligence models and chips. Now it’s made a big commitment to buy renewable energy for data centres, enabling Canadian investor Brookfield to build a massive 10 gigawatts of capacity. It’s another long-term bet on nascent technology.

Exxon and gas markets tell different stories

26 Apr 2024

CEO Darren Woods denies fossil fuels are in decline, thanks to growing populations and rising petrochemicals demand. Yet a glut of natural gas – which reined in quarterly profit at Exxon and rival Chevron – is a real problem, and one that could weigh on prices for a long time.

Anglo American has grounds to play hard to get

25 Apr 2024

The London-listed miner has received an all-share $39 bln bid from BHP. Anglo’s recent woes explain why, but its jumble of assets could be worth more. If boss Duncan Wanblad can show as much by outlining a plan B, he may yet see its $149 bln rival off – or extract a higher offer.

Shell’s value gap is more strategy than geography

19 Apr 2024

CEO Wael Sawan may shift the $230 bln UK oil giant’s listing to New York if a discount to rivals like Exxon Mobil persists beyond 2025. But Shell’s shifting priorities, slower growth, and unreliable dividends weigh on its valuation. Those factors defy a superficial fix.

Spain’s utility saga calls for tough balancing act

18 Apr 2024

The UAE wants to buy 40% of 22 bln euro Naturgy from its private equity owners. That would usually require a full takeover, but Madrid has form on protecting key infrastructure. Spain will have to balance its desire to retain control with the need not to scare its bidder away.

Prysmian finds sparky US fix for dim cable outlook

15 Apr 2024

The world’s biggest maker of telco and power lines is buying a cash-rich US rival. At $4 bln, the deal is not cheap, and heavy investment in grids has slowed. Still, adding heft to the more attractive North America market should improve the $15 bln Italian company’s prospects.

Next Chinese trade war could benefit the planet

8 Apr 2024

As Beijing floods the world with cheap green goods, the West will put up trade barriers. That will delay the energy transition in the United States and EU. But the glut of EVs, solar panels and the like will speed it up in China and much of the Global South.

AI’s power surge short-circuits longer-term plans

1 Apr 2024

Data centers account for 2.5% of the US grid, and machine learning is supercharging growth. Where and how to build megaplexes consuming as much electricity as a small nuclear plant are the immediate problems, but they’re solvable. Calculating future demand is the real conundrum.

Eni’s green shoots are taking time to blossom

28 Mar 2024

Italy’s $53 bln energy major trades at a discount to rivals. An overhang from Rome’s potential stake sale and falling gas prices are drags. But CEO Claudio Descalzi’s plan to raise cash by spinning off energy transition-focused business units is also yet to fully shape up.

Europe’s green giant is focusing on safer bets

21 Mar 2024

Iberdrola is upping investment on ageing power grids. The $79 bln Spanish utility is also buying out US unit Avangrid and allocating its biggest chunk of capex to the States. Both bets look likelier to pay off than renewable power and geographies with less generous subsidies.

Like Rome, oil demand won’t be destroyed in a day

18 Mar 2024

Oil producers attending the big industry confab in Houston this week recognize they are under pressure. US firms are merging; Saudi is reinventing itself. Like in any dwindling empire, many leaders will want to take over rivals. Rewarding investors with cash is a better strategy.