Regulation

UK mistakes City liberalisation for a growth plan

15 Nov 2024

Finance minister Rachel Reeves wants to unleash the 153-bln-pound financial sector to boost the economy. It’s not clear that her reforms so far, like a share-trading venue for private companies, will do that. Meatier deregulation, meanwhile, would raise the risk of future crises.

China developers’ survival fight gets litmus test

15 Nov 2024

Sunac has given investors four options for restructuring $2 bln of onshore bonds, including an 82% haircut and a debt-for-equity swap. How they vote will reveal their views on both the $3.1 bln firm’s chances of survival and Beijing’s attempts to end the property slump.

Shein margin wobble takes bite out of IPO value

14 Nov 2024

The e-commerce giant’s revenue growth slumped in the first half of 2024, and the net margin fell to 2% per The Information. Even if the business recovers, it creates uncertainty that’s compounded by a protectionist US government. Investors may struggle to see the upside.

Prosus catches a moment of relief in India

13 Nov 2024

The Mumbai listing of Swiggy, one half of a food delivery duopoly, crystallizes gains in a priority market for the $100 bln Dutch tech investor. The stock market debut of the startup is decent but Prosus' other bets in fintech and e-commerce in the country look harder to monetise.

Shell’s legal win flags need for new green metrics

12 Nov 2024

A Dutch court has nixed a 2021 ruling forcing the $204 bln oil major to cut emissions by 45% by 2030. Such metrics had already been undermined by Big Oil asset sales, which don’t stop climate change. Drillers’ spending on low-carbon energy is a better gauge of green credentials.

Vaccine makers exposed to political pathogen

7 Nov 2024

President-elect Donald Trump wants Robert Kennedy to ‘run wild’ on public health policy. Details, as usual, are sketchy, and it may be hard to put the anti-jab activist in an official administration role. Even with him as a senior adviser, though, Moderna and GSK lack immunity.

China wields weak hand in Trump’s Trade War II

7 Nov 2024

The country would suffer a severe blow if the self-styled ‘Tariff Man’ imposes a 60% US levy on Chinese goods. Trade tensions will be harder to de-escalate this time, and Beijing’s reliance on exports to offset slowing GDP growth leaves the $18 trln economy highly vulnerable.

Global banks are nearing peak regulation

31 Oct 2024

Sixteen years after the financial crisis that triggered bailouts and new rules, CEOs like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon are pushing back. Sympathetic politicians and competition from shadow banks help their case. The best hope for watchdogs is to stop the system from fragmenting.

Robust banks impair pleas for lighter regulation

31 Oct 2024

Lenders on both sides of the Atlantic are doing relatively well, despite concerns over the effect of shifting rates. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what is driving growth, and why CEOs are simultaneously bemoaning increased scrutiny from watchdogs.

China is reshaping, not choking, private business

30 Oct 2024

Tech giants and property developers have tumbled, while party support lifted electric carmaker BYD and solar powerhouse Longi. A blurred line between state-backed and private firms does not preclude innovation or competition in the $18 trln economy. Disdain for market forces can.

China’s SOEs bulk up for market heavy lifting

29 Oct 2024

Guotai Junan and Haitong's proposed merger to form a mega-brokerage is the latest in a raft of deals. Beijing wants its state-owned enterprises to be larger to boost its $11 trln stock market. But unlocking cost savings and cutting overcapacity will be the real challenge.

China can help itself with a stronger stock market

22 Oct 2024

President Xi Jinping wants companies worth some $11 trln to deliver better returns. Boosting long-term value would reassure anxious savers and help bring down government debt. Taming volatility, though, will require Beijing to cede some control.

Swiss finish would take shine off UBS’s M&A gift

21 Oct 2024

The bank’s $3.8 bln takeover of Credit Suisse was described as the 'deal of the century'. But $19 bln of extra capital charges so far, and another looming hit from local regulators, will lower the returns. The next time a bank rescues a rival, it may push for even sweeter terms.

BHP’s dam disaster dealings leave a bad taste

21 Oct 2024

The miner and partners are offering Brazilian authorities $23 bln in damages for a 2015 catastrophe, but with most of it paid over 20 years. And BHP was in hot water trying to hinder a related $47 bln lawsuit in London. Both take the argument of protecting shareholders too far.

UK’s bad tax on share trading looks hard to kill

18 Oct 2024

Britain’s stamp duty on equity transactions hampers and distorts investment. Yet abolishing it probably won’t revive the fortunes of the country’s shrinking stock market. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has little cash to spare, and cheaper ways to boost domestic share ownership.

Neither precedent nor Trump can save Big Tech

8 Oct 2024

Epic Games’ victory in a suit against Google means the search giant must open up its app store. Tech honchos may be hopeful for a change of administration. But even if a new president softens stance, the past four years and lawsuits elsewhere will do permanent damage.

China’s EU reply cuts odds of damaging tit-for-tat

8 Oct 2024

Days after Brussels voted for electric-vehicle tariffs, Beijing penalised European brandy. Pork, dairy and pricey cars may be next. Yet the moves are well-flagged. And more damaging retorts, like hitting luxury or $9 bln of aircraft-linked imports, seem unlikely for now.

EV tariffs are only the first step in EU-China war

4 Oct 2024

Despite internal squabbles, member states voted for levies on imported Chinese battery cars. That may help onshore production, but doesn’t tackle China’s clout in hybrid vehicles and batteries. New trade battles are likely: autos and their supply chains are in the firing line.

Hong Kong economic pain is marginal gain for LME

4 Oct 2024

Port activity and land prices have fallen so far that the London Metal Exchange is eyeing warehouses in the financial hub. That may spur more Chinese buyers to use the bourse. But despite more than a decade of Hong Kong ownership, storage in mainland China remains out of reach.

Commerzbank fight is stress test for EU bank union

27 Sep 2024

Regulators spent years trying to level the playing field for euro zone banks. That should clear the way for UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel’s mooted bid for the $20 bln German lender. If Chancellor Olaf Scholz thwarts the Italian group, new barriers may soon spring up elsewhere.