Real Estate

Blackstone’s apartment deal has only so much room

8 Apr 2024

A $10 bln buyout of AIR Communities and its 27,000 US rental units is the biggest of its ilk in a while. It hews to COO Jon Gray’s plan to invest before a market recovery. But unlike his firm’s post-2008 spree, deep pockets aren’t enough. The Fed and the economy loom larger now.

Ping An and Vanke look made for each other

26 Mar 2024

Pressure is mounting on China's financial giants, including the $90 bln insurer, to support the beleaguered property developer. That is a big ask for Ping An, whose own earnings just slumped 23%. Still, helping Vanke could limit the pain for its own hefty property exposure.

Hong Kong property tycoons send warning by waiting

22 Mar 2024

A home price slump has left blue-chip real estate firms like New World trading at their lowest valuation since 2003. Back then, it sparked a rash of shareholder buyouts. This time round, property magnates remain on the sidelines, suggesting the market has further to fall.

AI hype will be hard to puncture

20 Mar 2024

Short-seller Hindenburg is attacking $80 bln Equinix, whose data-center investments have been pumped up by artificial-intelligence exuberance. US regulators are also starting to target some of the hot air. Even so, the valuation bubble is more likely to deflate slowly than pop.

China property’s Enron damp squib may yet surprise

19 Mar 2024

Markets shrugged as a watchdog accused Evergrande of inflating sales by $78 bln over a two-year period. The US firm’s 2001 demise, by contrast, had broad impacts. More fallout in China is likely, potentially ensnaring banks and auditors like PwC. Investors are too sanguine.

Lower rates, office return will ease property pain

7 Mar 2024

The post-pandemic boom in hybrid work is causing trouble for banks that have lent heavily to office developers. But in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how losses may be limited if central banks bring borrowing costs down and bosses call employees back.

European bank property buffers rest on two big ifs

28 Feb 2024

Lenders like BNP and ING sit on $1.5 trln of commercial property loans, which look vulnerable to high interest rates. Longer leases give EU players more breathing space than US counterparts. Yet averting a crisis requires a mixture of falling inflation and a revival of offices.

Shenzhen offers glimpse of China’s housing future

28 Feb 2024

The tech hub’s plan to put 60% of its 18 mln residents in subsidised homes answers President Xi Jinping’s call for a “new development model” prioritising affordability. The state is reclaiming a lead role in the property market of the world’s second-largest economy, at huge cost.

Central banks’ waiting game plays with fire

21 Feb 2024

Western policymakers fret that if they cut rates too soon inflation may rebound. But keeping monetary policy tight has costs. Staying put as price growth abates means rate-setters squeeze consumers and companies, raising the odds of blowups in areas like commercial real estate.

Capital Calls: S&P/Visible Alpha

20 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The financial analytics firm’s $500 mln bid for alternative data provider underscores the importance of bringing proprietary data to funds that trade on momentum. But as Lyft’s rally after a typo showed, automation has its limits.

US real estate is a micro-drama set to turn macro

15 Feb 2024

So far, loans on isolated buildings by individual banks and funds have gone bad. As mortgages worth $1.5 trln come due in the next two years, strains will also spread from offices to apartment blocks. A correction is inevitable, but its impact can still be contained.

Capital Calls: Disney

7 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: Boss Bob Iger nabbed Taylor Swift’s movie for his company’s streaming service, took a $1.5 bln stake in Epic Games and shipped more money to shareholders. But traditional TV is declining, and a new sports partnership makes for an awkward fit.

Julius Baer pops myth of private bank prudence

1 Feb 2024

CEO Philipp Rickenbacher is leaving the $12 bln Swiss wealth manager after bad lending led to a $700 mln writedown. It’s a reminder that serving rich clients is not risk-free. Money managers will have to provide more clarity on loan books or give up lucrative but dicey practices.

Fractured world is changing investment geography

23 Jan 2024

Washington and Beijing’s quasi-Cold War, and rising protectionism, are already hurting foreign direct investment. Though some states are gaining from China’s falling FDI, overall cross-border flows are down. If Trump becomes US president, they will take another hit.

Capital Calls: UK real estate merger

11 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: LondonMetric’s all-share move for domestic peer LXi isn’t a bargain, but creates a 4 bln pound landlord with benefits for both sides.

Capital Calls: UK homebuilders

10 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: Expectations of mortgage rate cuts helped Persimmon exceed sales targets, giving another lift to its resurgent stock price. The optimism, however, warrants a reality check.

Blackstone partly cracks new private equity code

9 Jan 2024

Buyouts have been a drag on big asset managers whose investors now prize steadier income. The firm led by Steve Schwarzman wants to square the circle by raising capital with no expiry date from rich individuals. A risky outcome is that it perversely incentivizes a spending spree.

Beijing will build safety net around housing hole

18 Dec 2023

China’s debt-stricken developers have left 20 mln homes unfinished. Local governments can turn the crisis into an opportunity by taking on stalled projects and converting them into public housing. State firms will increase their presence in the property market in the process.

Hong Kong’s property pain may soon get real

13 Dec 2023

The city’s leader John Lee is talking tough on illegal structures, a hot topic in the world’s most unaffordable housing market. Tackling the issue will frustrate the rich and may hit government revenues but it would please Beijing and the public. The necessity to act is growing.

Wanda tycoon pays price for overexpansion

13 Dec 2023

Once Asia’s richest man, Wang Jianlin has been forced to give up control of his mall operator to avert a $4.1 bln funding crunch. To avoid further problems at China’s biggest landlord, Dalian Wanda now needs to prove its assets are attractive to both shoppers and investors.