Property

Lower rates, office return will ease property pain

7 Mar 2024

The post-pandemic boom in hybrid work is causing trouble for banks that have lent heavily to office developers. But in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how losses may be limited if central banks bring borrowing costs down and bosses call employees back.

European bank property buffers rest on two big ifs

28 Feb 2024

Lenders like BNP and ING sit on $1.5 trln of commercial property loans, which look vulnerable to high interest rates. Longer leases give EU players more breathing space than US counterparts. Yet averting a crisis requires a mixture of falling inflation and a revival of offices.

Capital Calls: S&P/Visible Alpha

20 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The financial analytics firm’s $500 mln bid for alternative data provider underscores the importance of bringing proprietary data to funds that trade on momentum. But as Lyft’s rally after a typo showed, automation has its limits.

US real estate is a micro-drama set to turn macro

15 Feb 2024

So far, loans on isolated buildings by individual banks and funds have gone bad. As mortgages worth $1.5 trln come due in the next two years, strains will also spread from offices to apartment blocks. A correction is inevitable, but its impact can still be contained.

Capital Calls: Disney

7 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: Boss Bob Iger nabbed Taylor Swift’s movie for his company’s streaming service, took a $1.5 bln stake in Epic Games and shipped more money to shareholders. But traditional TV is declining, and a new sports partnership makes for an awkward fit.

Julius Baer pops myth of private bank prudence

1 Feb 2024

CEO Philipp Rickenbacher is leaving the $12 bln Swiss wealth manager after bad lending led to a $700 mln writedown. It’s a reminder that serving rich clients is not risk-free. Money managers will have to provide more clarity on loan books or give up lucrative but dicey practices.

BoE can counter banks’ unfriendly rate fire

12 Jan 2024

UK lenders like HSBC think lower borrowing costs are coming and have slashed five-year mortgage payments below 4%. That makes it harder for the Bank of England to slay inflation and, in fact, may delay any cuts. Governor Andrew Bailey could ask the City to reward savers as well.

Capital Calls: UK real estate merger

11 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: LondonMetric’s all-share move for domestic peer LXi isn’t a bargain, but creates a 4 bln pound landlord with benefits for both sides.

Capital Calls: UK homebuilders

10 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: Expectations of mortgage rate cuts helped Persimmon exceed sales targets, giving another lift to its resurgent stock price. The optimism, however, warrants a reality check.

Beijing will build safety net around housing hole

18 Dec 2023

China’s debt-stricken developers have left 20 mln homes unfinished. Local governments can turn the crisis into an opportunity by taking on stalled projects and converting them into public housing. State firms will increase their presence in the property market in the process.

Hong Kong’s property pain may soon get real

13 Dec 2023

The city’s leader John Lee is talking tough on illegal structures, a hot topic in the world’s most unaffordable housing market. Tackling the issue will frustrate the rich and may hit government revenues but it would please Beijing and the public. The necessity to act is growing.

Wanda tycoon pays price for overexpansion

13 Dec 2023

Once Asia’s richest man, Wang Jianlin has been forced to give up control of his mall operator to avert a $4.1 bln funding crunch. To avoid further problems at China’s biggest landlord, Dalian Wanda now needs to prove its assets are attractive to both shoppers and investors.

Muddy Waters sticks a pin in Blackstone’s rump

8 Dec 2023

The short-seller says a mortgage fund run by Steve Schwarzman’s firm is doomed by struggling office properties. The reality may be more nuanced. But Muddy Waters is challenging a fundamental Blackstone selling-point: its ability to outrun the market, in real estate or elsewhere.

Capital Calls: Monte dei Paschi

21 Nov 2023

Concise views on global finance: The Italian Treasury raised 920 mln euros by selling a 25% stake in the bank on the open market. So far, it looks like a better outcome for taxpayers than submitting to the onerous sale conditions offered by UniCredit in 2021.

Private equity superstores overstock the shelves

8 Nov 2023

Blackstone and Apollo say diversification into credit, real estate and beyond makes them better investors. They have been outraised and often outperformed, however, by more focused buyout shops like CD&R. It will take consistently higher returns to justify the conglomerate model.

Canary Wharf may yet avoid once-a-decade upheaval

6 Nov 2023

The main landlord of London’s key office district has tended to have a new owner every 10 years. The 300 mln pounds of equity injected by incumbents Brookfield and Qatar suggests they may buck the trend. That gives Canary Wharf scope to address its issues in a stable manner.

Hong Kong property stares into the abyss

24 Oct 2023

Secondary sales prices in the world’s least affordable housing market fell 19% since a 2021 peak, the biggest slump since the global financial crisis. High interest rates are a pain and slashing stamp duties may not help. The city’s image problem will keep hurting sentiment.

Country Garden default will serve a bigger purpose

17 Oct 2023

China’s top property developer may miss a debt payment. Creditors have an incentive to quickly agree on a restructuring for its $11 bln of offshore bonds after rival Evergrande’s process flopped. Beijing needs to show the highly leveraged sector can get onto a healthier path.

Hong Kong buyout leaves property woes clear as mud

10 Oct 2023

Haitong Securities offered a 114% premium for shares it doesn’t already own in its ailing subsidiary. At some 60% of book value, that could have set a benchmark for other brokerages laid low by their China real estate holdings. The lack of transparency on assets prevents that.

China has reason not to let Evergrande rejig rot

3 Oct 2023

Its chairman is suspected of crimes. Offshore creditors may hope a proposal to restructure their $19 bln holdings is still on the table. A forced liquidation will see them recover as little as 2%. Their fate will offer a clue to whether Beijing still values overseas debt markets.