Predictions 2024

China’s automakers will defy the great uncoupling

22 Dec 2023

There are industries, like microchips, where American trade warriors can cleave friendly supply chains from China. Cars aren’t one of them. Despite $80 bln of announced investments, lagging tech holds US champions back. In 2024, that will prove the limits of protectionism.

The United States will go from MAGA to MAWA

21 Dec 2023

‘Make America Worse Again’ won’t be a campaign slogan, but it’s a vibe. Joe Biden’s policies brought jobs onshore, helped the energy transition, and delayed a downturn. But 2024 will bring infighting that worsens the nation’s financial standing and an electoral test of democracy.

Disney’s 2024 lifeline leads to Tim Cook

21 Dec 2023

Boss Bob Iger is seeking a partner for sports network ESPN. Tim Cook’s Apple would be a nice co-owner. The brands are aligned, the executives have a history with movie studio Pixar, and the iPhone maker is getting deeper into sports.

Green investors will learn the art of stockpicking

21 Dec 2023

Wind and solar stocks had a torrid 2023, as stars like Orsted crashed. But renewables investment is strong, input cost inflation is abating and rates may have peaked. Investors able to pick developers in the right sector, or suppliers in the right regions, may find bargains.

Ahmedabad will be India’s next Silicon Valley

21 Dec 2023

So will Mysuru, Jaipur and Coimbatore. Global firms are leaning on employees in India to execute more complex tasks. They’ll find a cheaper, reliable workforce beyond the country’s traditional tech hubs. The rise of AI will see more cities become the workplaces of the world.

China’s Huawei could be the surprise IPO of 2024

21 Dec 2023

Ren Zhengfei has long insisted the telecoms giant and chip designer he founded will never go public, but the company is now central to Beijing’s technology ambitions, which require heavy funding. A Huawei listing would also breathe life into China’s ailing stock market.

US defense minnows will storm the barricades

20 Dec 2023

Even as conflict in Ukraine leads American arms makers to boost production, the political mood is turning against giants like Lockheed Martin. With half the $415 bln handed to American defense contractors not receiving a competitive bid, newcomers will make battlefield gains.

Big companies will raid government for future CEOs

20 Dec 2023

There’s a long history of businesspeople going into politics. Now sanctions and subsidies are showing boardrooms the value of diplomatic skills. Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and Legal & General Chairman John Kingman worked in government. Others will follow through the revolving door.

BP and Equinor will find common ground

20 Dec 2023

The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.

The Li clan will deal their way out of value trap

20 Dec 2023

The Hong Kong-based empire founded by Li Ka-shing is unloved by investors. Despite his son Victor’s efforts to boost value, the $20 bln CK Hutchison trades at a big discount to its net assets. With 80% of revenue outside Greater China, it makes sense to explore a sale or breakup.

Biofuels comeback will give West a rare energy win

20 Dec 2023

Propellants from plant waste and animal fats have lost out amid an e-mobility push. Yet the difficulty of using electricity for planes and ships, and the rise of non-edible crops as feedstock, will offset food supply fears. Western groups like BP, Total and Eni will benefit.

Backlogged M&A pipeline will burst in 2024

19 Dec 2023

Even normally chipper bankers are wary as merger activity heads for a second straight drop from its $5.7 trln peak in 2021. And yet stabilizing capital costs, bulging cash reserves and adjusting valuation mindsets should help spark enough pressure to ignite a deals resurgence.

Blockchain’s rebirth will pass United States by

19 Dec 2023

Regulators are cracking down on digital asset firms while Congress dithers over passing rules to govern them. Financial hubs like London, faster to set guidelines, will capture the value created not just by crypto, but by potentially powerful distributed ledger technology.

Saudi’s best foreign investment will be in Gaza

19 Dec 2023

The kingdom is known for flashy punts on Western sports and blue chips. But its real need is foreign cash to help diversify away from oil. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were to use Saudi money to help Palestinians rebuild post-war, US goodwill may prompt an FDI spike.

Swiss pharma mega-deal has healthy prognosis

19 Dec 2023

In 2001 Novartis took a stake in Roche, yet a deal never happened. Over two decades later, the mooted acquirer is stronger and could gain from vast synergies and more heft in oncology. Making the $440 bln union a reality means overcoming family pride, and antitrust issues.

StanChart M&A theory will finally become reality

19 Dec 2023

For years, the bank run by Bill Winters was cheap but dysfunctional. Now, it’s producing significantly higher returns on tangible equity but the valuation remains low. If that persists in 2024, it will be hard for suitors like First Abu Dhabi Bank to resist launching a bid.

Ozempic overshoot will plump up bargain-hunters

18 Dec 2023

New weight-loss drugs are highly effective, but investors risk overestimating how fast change will occur and how many people will take the therapies indefinitely. Some companies regarded as victims, such as Zimmer Biomet, may even benefit. Contrarian investors may profit in 2024.

Altice’s best hope will be a Middle East lifeline

18 Dec 2023

Telecoms tycoon Patrick Drahi is dismantling his empire to cope with a $60 bln debt wall. Attracting new investors may be tricky given low growth and a corruption scandal. Luckily Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are flush with cash and keen to grab Western assets.

Stellantis will cruise with GM and Ford

18 Dec 2023

The maker of Jeeps and Opels run by Carlos Tavares is one of Europe’s lowest-valued carmakers. Yet it generates much of its income in the US, and boasts industry-leading profit margins. Keeping a single New York listing could see its valuation match Detroit rivals.

Polls may imperil emerging Asia’s policy stability

18 Dec 2023

India and Indonesia have had a decade of relative predictability under leaders Narendra Modi and Joko Widodo. Elections in 2024 could upend that and undermine the lofty valuations of local stock markets. Global investors, and 1.7 bln people, should temper expectations.