Predictions 2024

‘Polluter pays’ doctrine will take on new meaning

3 Jan 2024

Carbon-intensive throwaway fashion and ubiquitous plastic waste are dirtying the globe. That may change as governments start to crack down on discarded textiles and polymer-based items. Companies and their investors face a costlier journey to a more sustainable world.

Green backlash will spread to European Parliament

3 Jan 2024

Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.

Convertibles will be 2024’s hot financial model

2 Jan 2024

Hybrid bonds, which fueled hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin’s rise, sputtered after a $370 bln Covid-era boom. Refinancing needs are revving them back up as interest-cost savings lure new issuers like Duke Energy. New features should tempt investors to ride off with them again.

The world’s paradigm shift will create a busy 2024

2 Jan 2024

Surprise IPOs, a wave of M&A activity and changing recruitment patterns are just a flavour of predictions from Breakingviews. In this Viewsroom podcast, columnists explain how a better understanding of the rates environment and inflation will make it easier to get things done.

Rival narratives will battle for supremacy in 2024

2 Jan 2024

As inflation peaks, war rages and trade conflicts harden, new ways of thinking about how and why the world has changed are emerging. The lessons drawn by voters, central banks, tech titans and bureaucrats will shape economies, companies and markets for years to come.

Aussie tycoon will blaze new green activist trail

2 Jan 2024

Atlassian co-CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes has already used some of his billions to tackle climate change, like battling the country’s top carbon emitter. Quitting the software firm would make him more effective. Other wealthy moguls may then join him in the activist trenches.

Jay Powell could land on the ballot in 2024

2 Jan 2024

Central banks’ fight against inflation may produce slower growth, joblessness and recession in the US, Europe and the UK, just as elections loom. The Fed chief and peers argue their mandate is to slay high prices, not to appease voters. They shouldn’t assume it will always be so.

Deflation will help big grocers gobble up minnows

29 Dec 2023

Supermarkets like Walmart and Tesco are expecting goods prices to finally fall. That will help larger chains to cut shoppers’ bills by putting pressure on suppliers such as Unilever. Smaller rivals may find it harder and end up losing customers, making them ripe for takeovers.

Microsoft will finally make its mark in mobile

29 Dec 2023

The software giant has famously tripped itself up in smartphones for years, but boss Satya Nadella is primed to play catchup. His Activision and OpenAI deals pave the way with ‘Candy Crush’, Xbox and ChatGPT. Bruising app wars at Apple and Google may exact a high price, however.

Goldman’s partnership is too much of a good thing

28 Dec 2023

The arcane and elite 420-member group bolsters the bank’s cachet, but sometimes exerts power that’s out of sync with other shareholders. Boss David Solomon already answers to his board, clients and 45,000 other employees. He would do well to cut the inner circle down to size.

Dear Chancellor: inflation will fall…when it falls

28 Dec 2023

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has to write to the UK finance minister when consumer price growth is above or below 2%. Yet it’s clear mere central bankers can’t influence the behaviour of people or firms. Breakingviews imagines a letter in 2024 which says as much.

Mega-bank M&A goes from impossible to imaginable

28 Dec 2023

After 2008, CEOs saw investment-bank deals as risky while regulators saw them as dangerous. UBS will prove otherwise if it safely and profitably absorbs Credit Suisse. Imitators will not get the same sweet deal, but targets like SocGen and Barclays at least come cheap.

EU tech rules will create clicks, not competition

27 Dec 2023

Brussels wants to force Google, Meta and Apple to open up app stores, messaging networks and search engines. The US giants will have to let startups compete and offer consumers more opt-outs. It’s likely to result in lawsuits and hassle for users rather than rivals for Big Tech.

Toyota will engineer a half-electric renaissance

27 Dec 2023

The world’s largest carmaker is playing catchup with electric upstarts like Tesla and China’s BYD, just as global demand for EVs slows. But boss Koji Sato will capitalise on the Japanese giant’s edge in hybrid vehicles as the tech enjoys a sudden renaissance.

Sony Activision riposte will involve mobile gaming

27 Dec 2023

Microsoft’s $69 bln Activision deal threatens its Japanese rival’s console dominance. But it also establishes a bridgehead for the US firm in the $90 bln mobile gaming space. Recent mobile weakness and an expected return to growth mean 2024 is a good time for Sony to plug in too.

Gen Alpha will tire of living online

26 Dec 2023

As kids born since 2010 age into the digital world, their fatigue from being forced online will prompt backlash similar to Gen Z. Both will become smarter about the implicit agreement of trading services for data and make life more difficult for companies from Alphabet to OpenAI.

Kim Kardashian will be kicked off Instagram

22 Dec 2023

The influencer is worth $1.7 bln, which could climb with her shapewear brand’s IPO. That’s value that doesn’t flow to the owners of platforms sustaining content creators’ fame, like Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg. The best way for them to pull some back: suspend her privileges.

Restaurant deals will be back on the menu in 2024

22 Dec 2023

With the pandemic receding, US spending on dining out has topped $1.3 trln. Inflation has eaten into any exuberance, but as costs moderate and restaurants recoup margins, dealmaking will return, giving long-held investments like Panera a shot at cashing out.

Artificial intelligence will embark on a data dash

22 Dec 2023

Text and photos produced by professionals are key to training and improving AI models. But accessing this information is getting harder and pricier. AI firms will have little choice but to pay for data, pushing up already-high costs – and delivering a windfall to publishers.

Western support for Ukraine will wobble – but hold

22 Dec 2023

Foreign donors have given $66 bln in fiscal aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. A prolonged conflict will test the US and Europe’s solidarity with Kyiv. But allies will keep backing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once they consider what will happen if they don’t.