Predictions 2023

UAE will look to a world beyond OPEC

19 Dec 2022

The United Arab Emirates suffers from the oil cartel’s output restrictions. Distancing itself from the club would boost revenue and potentially attract more Western capital. President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan has a good moment to do so when he hosts the COP28 climate meet.

Traders will anxiously watch the Bank of Japan

19 Dec 2022

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s retirement and rising inflation may prompt the central bank to revisit ultra-low interest rates. Gyrating bond yields could force domestic investors to dump some of their $6 trln in overseas assets. Though a panic looks unlikely, rebalancing is certain.

Chip dilemma will buy Beijing precious time

19 Dec 2022

America is pushing Asian and European allies to stifle semiconductor progress in China. But antagonising the $466 bln market will be costly for South Korea's Samsung and Dutch ASML as global demand slows. Their hesitancy to fully embrace the blockade will benefit Beijing.

Hong Kong IPOs go back to a less luminous future

12 Dec 2022

Bankers and officials see the end of China’s Covid-19 restrictions as crucial to reviving the hub’s once-booming IPO market. That understates the city’s challenges. After vying for the hottest listings, the way investors and companies traverse the gateway to China is changing.

China Covid ills go from bad to chronically worse

28 Nov 2022

Nationwide protests will pressure Beijing to ease strict lockdowns. Yet officials have dragged their feet for the past two years: some 27 mln elderly are unjabbed and they face a shortage of hospital beds. These failures are quickly narrowing China’s reopening options.

Piyush Gupta might be banking’s boldest boss

15 Nov 2022

Buying banking assets is complex at the best of times. Singapore’s $65 bln DBS added a geopolitical twist when it agreed to acquire Citi’s Taiwan consumer bank. As tensions rise, Gupta is holding his nerve on the deal due to close next year. Then again, he has little choice.