Predictions 2023

East-West battleground will shift to metals

23 Dec 2022

After clashing with gas producer Russia, Europe has scrambled to diversify energy supplies to prop up its industries. Western companies will soon feel uneasy relying on China for lithium and nickel, key to a $5.3 trln green push. Expect a pile-up of mining and recycling deals.

Female fans will fuel Formula One in 2023

23 Dec 2022

Liberty Media’s testosterone-powered franchise is ready to shift gear. A docuseries following its drivers was among Netflix’s best-watched shows and lured more women to the racing stands. Forget Lewis Hamilton: finding a Louise Hamilton could rev up that trend and boost revenue.

Weed’s next frontier is in Asia

23 Dec 2022

The cannabis market is estimated to be a $100 billion industry by 2026, but largely confined to the U.S., Canada and parts of Europe. While legalising ganja has been a slow burn in Asia, official attitudes are shifting. Demand from regional consumers will slowly light up.

Climate change will become a CEO dealbreaker

22 Dec 2022

For corporate chieftains who profess to recognize the threat of climate change, the balancing act between pursuing shareholder value and helping the planet avoid a crisis is becoming unsustainable. Breakingviews imagines a missive from a CEO who opts to put values before value.

Bowling Green, Kentucky is the next big U.S. city

22 Dec 2022

So is Syracuse, N.Y.; and Dayton, Ohio; and Normal, Ill. That’s where manufacturing of semiconductors and electric cars is going, thanks in part to existing old infrastructure and new policies under Joe Biden. It means less profit – but a more evenly distributed U.S. workforce.

Putin’s Russia will look more like North Korea

22 Dec 2022

The Kremlin leader will strengthen his hold over the ailing economy, from banking to industrials. Massive nationalisation, along with the end of U.S. and European investments, could soon be followed by strict capital controls. The complete closure of the Russian economy is next.

Private lending will grow up by slimming down

22 Dec 2022

The industry led by Ares and Blackstone reached over $1.3 trln in assets, but now faces a reckoning. Lenders that took risky bets to compete with banks face difficult negotiations with private-equity borrowers. Bigger, more sophisticated players should still thrive.

Venture capitalists’ pain could be humanity’s gain

22 Dec 2022

Rate hikes have sapped enthusiasm for crypto, metaverses and gimmicky startups, with funding down 27% year-on-year. That will free up money to focus on nanotechnology and AI, which can boost lifespans and productivity but take longer to commercialise. Less frivolity is welcome.

Mark Zuckerberg will split Meta, take the ‘verse

21 Dec 2022

The Facebook founder’s belief in the promise of a virtual world is failing to sway investors. He may control the company, but capital flight is a problem. The solution will be to break off his pet project and find someone else to run and rebuild the social media empire.

Divided America will unite under economic duress

21 Dec 2022

A split U.S. government in 2023 will mean gridlock on topics like social spending and clean energy. But to continue operating, Congress must lift the ceiling on government debt. To do that, moderates will unite Democrats and Republicans against a common enemy: inflation.

How Ana Botín can defeat the Santander sceptics

21 Dec 2022

The Spanish bank suffers from a lower valuation, relative to its return on tangible equity, than rivals. If its executive chair can keep costs low and show the group is worth more than the sum of its parts, that might change. If not, it’s time to sell assets, starting in the U.S..

Vietnam’s Elon Musk challenger turns heads in 2023

21 Dec 2022

Le Thi Thu Thuy is steering VinFast onto Western roads to race the entrepreneur’s premium marque, Tesla. She’ll have to convince investors in its New York IPO to look past niggles at its powerful parent. It’s a complex route, and puts the former Lehman banker in the spotlight.

Quiet quitting China will start with the Chinese

21 Dec 2022

Western companies have had a hard time dealing with Beijing’s zero-Covid policy, rising labour costs and U.S. tariffs. But uprooting and finding suppliers elsewhere is tough. Local partners could help by building factories elsewhere, like Tesla’s suppliers are doing in Mexico.

Netflix will be next on Microsoft’s shopping list

20 Dec 2022

The video-streaming service is expanding into gaming as the software titan fights for Activision Blizzard. Ever-bigger deals, including LinkedIn and Nuance, have been a staple of boss Satya Nadella’s tenure. And there’s logic behind fortifying its Xbox even more.

Buyout barons will court the panicking masses

20 Dec 2022

KKR and rivals may have maxed out with traditional backers like pension plans for now. Blackstone’s $236 bln in private-wealth assets shows a fresh source: the common rich. The disarray at its flagship retail fund exposes the risks, but managers will chase the lure of new money.

Big Pharma will find right formula for M&A binge

20 Dec 2022

Pfizer, AstraZeneca and peers have nearly half a trillion dollars of firepower to deploy on deals in 2023. Looming loss of exclusivity on key drugs gives them little choice. Luckily targets like Ascendis or Incyte are trading on depressed valuations, and less likely to resist.

Economic chaos will break Orbán’s strongman spirit

20 Dec 2022

The Hungarian leader needs EU funds to prop up his country’s struggling economy. With inflation at 20% and the forint in free fall, social unrest is brewing. Backing down on civil rights restrictions and tackling corruption would be a small price to pay for the EU’s support.

Apple finds a happy home in India

20 Dec 2022

IPhone makers Foxconn, Pegatron and Wistron are ramping up factories: $30 bln of official handouts help to make India an attractive place to set up. Trade tensions between Beijing and Washington only speed up a shift that will place India at the core of Apple’s supply chain.

Intrepid bankers will find Boutique Blvd jam-packed

19 Dec 2022

Slower periods of M&A often inspire rainmakers to hang up their own shingles. Independent shops already pocket 36% of a $35 bln fee pool, up from 14% two decades ago. The cutthroat deal advice business leaves less room to muscle in on the likes of Blair Effron and Simon Robey.

Central bankers will shift inflation goalposts

19 Dec 2022

The Federal Reserve, ECB and others insist they’re determined to get price increases back down to 2% a year. Though the target is arbitrary, changing it is tricky. But stubborn inflation means monetary authorities will have to find ways to tolerate rising prices for longer.