Predictions 2022

Live now, pay later is fintech’s latest extension

21 Dec 2021

Instalment financing, rebranded as “buy now, pay later,” has been the hot consumer financial innovation powering groups like Klarna and Afterpay. Look for the next iteration to entice consumers beyond shopping and leisure, including doctor’s visits, utilities and even taxes.

The Exchange: Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg

21 Dec 2021

With an election looming early next year, the Liberal Party’s deputy leader discusses everything from booster shots to Big Tech, climate change to China, immigration to inflation, and more. He tells Jeffrey Goldfarb how his country can overcome the many economic challenges ahead.

Booze to batteries will measure China’s transition

21 Dec 2021

Distiller Kweichow Moutai overtook lender ICBC as the country’s biggest company by market cap in 2020. President Xi Jinping’s policy upheaval, along with rapidly changing investor attitudes, augur a new champ for 2022. Look for CATL to ride the electric-vehicle craze to the top.

Data hunters will be Big Pharma’s next prey

20 Dec 2021

Drugmakers such as AstraZeneca spend $160 bln annually trying to unearth new treatments for diseases like cancer. The winners will be those who can source and analyse data quickly. That makes artificial intelligence experts like Relay Therapeutics and Exscientia targets.

Big Meat will channel VW-Tesla in alt-protein war

20 Dec 2021

Elon Musk stole a march on automakers, forcing them to play catchup on electric cars. A similar dynamic could play out in real and plant-based meat. The likes of Impossible Foods have a Tesla-like lead, but old hands like Tyson and JBS can use M&A to play tortoise to their hare.

Xi’s 2022 GDP target will be moment of truth

20 Dec 2021

One of the Chinese president’s signature policy initiatives was to curb property-related risks. That implies slower but higher quality growth: 4% or so in 2022. Outside advisers are pushing for more. The final economic decision will signal the extent of Xi Jinping’s power.

Aussie climate ambition will restart at ballot box

20 Dec 2021

The $1.4 trln economy has all it needs to be an energy-transition leader, except a proactive government. The 2022 election will change that, making independent, global warming-savvy candidates the kingmakers. Stronger policy also will be lucrative for domestic and export markets.

TSMC can fix Taiwan’s stalled green transition

17 Dec 2021

Referendums on a nuclear power plant and a fossil-gas terminal spotlight the island’s 20% renewables target. Bureaucracy and red tape, though, have held up wind and solar projects. The local chipmaking champion’s voracious appetite for cleaner power offers a much-needed spark.

Toyota will send its hybrids to the breaker’s yard

14 Dec 2021

The $250 bln carmaker is dramatically increasing its electric ambitions after lagging for years. It could help defend its earnings multiple lead over Ford and GM. But Toyota still lobbies against tougher emissions standards. Powering down its hybrids will add carbon clarity.

Inflation genie will be hard to banish

10 Dec 2021

Consumer prices will rise at a less hectic pace in 2022. But they’ll still overshoot targets that Fed Chair Jay Powell and his peers aim to hit. Policymakers are less apt to hit the brakes on stimulus than in years past. Also, businesses and workers are behaving differently.

Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm stumbles out of block

9 Dec 2021

Renaming Square to Block should have been bottom on his to-do list. Bigger priorities include integrating its $29 bln purchase of Afterpay, improving profitability and fending off rivals. Dorsey is more of a visionary. When it comes to Square, he’ll have to get his hands dirty.

Jack Dorsey’s exit puts Twitter in play

1 Dec 2021

Dorsey’s departure sets up the social network as an attractive target for his other firm Square in the race to build a super-app. Even PayPal or Salesforce may take another stab. Regulators may get in the way but China’s WeChat shows why the effort may be worth the headache.

Cox: French finance will take an electoral pause

30 Nov 2021

Parisian executives who want President Emmanuel Macron to win another term will avoid deals that could become political hot potatoes for the former M&A banker. Shopping abroad is chic but domestic takeovers and synergy-squeezers are out for now. After the election, le déluge.

Fed will have to put inclusive jobs on back burner

23 Nov 2021

Chair Jerome Powell wanted a labor market recovery to filter through to women and minorities before hiking interest rates. But tighter monetary policy is the surest way to contain inflation, which is at a 31-year high. Price stability will trump the job prospects of these groups.

TSMC’s global expansion will chip away at its edge

12 Nov 2021

The world’s biggest semiconductor maker is building a $7 bln plant with Sony in Japan, and it has similar U.S. plans underway. Diversifying production outside Taiwan offers a useful geopolitical hedge. The trade-off is higher costs, which threaten to erode its valuation premium.

Forget COP26. The world needs COPPER 26

5 Nov 2021

The climate shindig is all about cutting demand for fossil fuels. The required flipside is a 2020s surge in production of metals for all those extra wind turbines and electric cars. Stay tuned for a separate forum in which governments and miners thrash out how that might happen.