Predictions 2022

The Exchange: Hydrogen wave

27 Jan 2022

Can green hydrogen decarbonise big chunks of our economies? Air Products CEO Seifi Ghasemi, who’s backing the carbon-free gas in a major Saudi Arabia project, thinks so. He tells Lisa Jucca how his $61 bln group plans to be the world’s top green hydrogen producer in five years.

The Exchange: Zurich CEO takes on 2022’s big risks

13 Jan 2022

Failure to reduce carbon emissions is top of mind for Mario Greco, who has run the 65 bln Swiss francs insurer for the past six years. But other hazards, like loss of social cohesion and geopolitics, are also on the horizon, he tells Rob Cox in a Breakingviews Predictions chat.

Big transitions are better embraced than resisted

4 Jan 2022

The extraordinary actions required to make epochal shifts, like eradicating hydrocarbons or vanquishing Covid-19, are being taken now. Central banks are removing punch-bowl money. Digital is crushing everything. And without social inclusion, it all falls apart. Welcome to 2022.

Shop spree will stuff landlords in bargain bin

6 Jan 2022

Ikea and Amazon are among the many retailers opening new locations. In theory, it’s a good sign for mall owners like Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, which trade at steep discounts to their assets. Cheap rents and other freebies, however, mean they’re effectively giving away the store.

KPN could be buyout barbarians’ next telco target

5 Jan 2022

The Dutch operator rebuffed takeover approaches in May. But KKR’s $37 bln Telecom Italia tilt shows the scale of private equity raiders’ appetites. Spain’s Telefonica and Britain’s BT are probably too big. Without a government shareholder, the $13 bln KPN looks vulnerable.

The Aussies are coming! The Aussies are coming!

5 Jan 2022

Two pension fund managers Down Under are buying a New Zealand hospital chain for $500 mln. It’s a small sign of things to come. As the country’s $2.4 trln superannuation sector grows, consolidates and invests more directly, it will sail beyond the Tasman Sea for takeover targets.

Microsoft and Satya Nadella to be tech standouts

4 Jan 2022

The $2.5 trln software giant has outpaced most Silicon Valley peers over several years. A slowdown might seem inevitable. But the company’s CEO since 2014 is poised to deliver again. That could make him the most successful second-generation tech boss ever in market value terms.

Financial products we’d rather not see in 2022

4 Jan 2022

Breakingviews is readying a new metaverse-based buy-now-pay-later digital-asset trading platform. Here are a few of the shiny new opportunities that could pop up in the coming year, from a melding of SPACs with NFTs to a new crypto-churn account.

Nio’s European road trip will earn bragging rights

4 Jan 2022

The Chinese electric-car maker will win foreign fans with a marketing splurge. While it may take years to grab a big share of the $120 bln global market for battery-powered rides, even modest success abroad can put it ahead of rivals, boosting its sales and stock in 2022.

Disappearing students drag down U.S. higher ed

3 Jan 2022

What once seemed like a pandemic-driven downturn in college enrollment now looks like the start of a broader slump for all but the most elite schools. In 2022, the winners in the education business will be those attending to the Ivy League.

Great CEO Resignation invites the Great Agitation

3 Jan 2022

Bosses are retiring at a record clip, leaving companies scrambling for experienced leaders. At the same time, activists are revved up. As companies grapple with restless staff, supply chain challenges and economic uncertainty, investor cage rattlers will ramp up their campaigns.

Macau watchdogs will double down on digital yuan

3 Jan 2022

As casino operators prepare bids for new licenses in the $37 bln gambling hub, investors fear regulators will tighten their grip on Sands, Wynn and MGM. One clever way to start would be by forcing them to adopt China’s new virtual currency.

Wall Street will find ways to satisfy crypto envy

3 Jan 2022

Banks have mostly been shut out of the $2 trln digital asset craze. Many want in, but they will have to deal with murky regulation, a 24/7 market and patchy legal protections. A fight for profit and customers may also obscure other risks in a market untested by the mainstream.

What our columnists got right and wrong in 2021

31 Dec 2021

We look back at a year as unpredictable as its predecessor. We foresaw an M&A surge, even if some of the deals we called for, like Tesla buying Daimler, failed to materialize. But we nailed a few biggies, like Grab’s moment in the limelight, inflation’s return and mRNA’s success.

Not all merger boutiques will be equal in 2022

30 Dec 2021

The crackdown on big deals will put a crimp on fees for shops that advise large companies, like PJT or Goldman. The most successful ones will be those that focus on transactions worth less than $1 billion, like Moelis, or big private equity. Houlihan Lokey tops that list.

Viewsroom: More 2022 predictions and prescriptions

30 Dec 2021

M&A bankers will need to think small, in size, but big when it comes to helping clients meet net-zero climate targets. Watch for Big Pharma to tool up in the data arms race. And the Great Resignation will hit executive suites because running companies remotely is no fun.

Banker pay surge prompts rise of the robot analyst

30 Dec 2021

Junior dealmaker salaries blew past $100,000 in 2021 as Morgan Stanley, UBS and others vied for talent. That gives banks a reason to use machines rather than twentysomethings for gruntwork. Old-school bosses may resist, but financial incentives to automate will prevail in 2022.

China is the ghost at the U.S. antitrust feast

29 Dec 2021

A move to slow consolidation could be a gift for Chinese competitors – or so Lockheed Martin says about its purchase of Aerojet Rocketdyne. Expect those arguments to spill out of the defense sector as CEOs facing adversarial watchdogs play the superpower-competition card.

Red-hot startups face a year of down rounds

29 Dec 2021

Venture capitalists invested more than $600 bln in 2021, an all-time high. The flood of money has boosted private-company valuations. Even a small correction would lower prices, alienating employees. Cash-burning upstarts in areas like rapid grocery delivery are most at risk.

Climate M&A will shift from risk to opportunity

29 Dec 2021

Defensive and green-signalling plays dominate ESG-touted deals, like BHP’s coal sales and Santos’ Oil Search swoop. SPACs are active, too. Next will be more ambitious, impactful tie-ups, from banks upping their skills to firms like Autodesk and Ecolab being predator or prey.