Predictions 2020

The Exchange: Jeffrey Ubben

24 Feb 2020

ValueAct Capital has shaken up some of the biggest companies, from Microsoft to Rolls-Royce. But its founder, who sat down for a Predictions event in New York, is focused on a new form of activism with the Spring Fund. Firms that neglect the E and S of ESG should take heed.

Cox: Consensus long on Trump, short on Facebook

31 Jan 2020

Those are two conclusions gleaned from polls of Breakingviews Predictions event goers. From Paris to Mumbai to Hong Kong, the U.S. president appears poised for re-election. New Yorkers had a different take. Plus, India and BlackRock look good and Apple’s iPhone is built to last.

Mark Zuckerberg can be his own activist investor

6 Jan 2020

Keeping shareholders happy isn’t necessarily compatible with cleaning up data abuses and toxic content. But Facebook’s CEO needn’t change his professed ideals. He could change the company’s legal form so it can better serve society – and put his supervoting power to good use.

Predictions: The heat’s rising everywhere in 2020

6 Jan 2020

Expect investors and banks to join the climate-change fight; pain in Russia and South Africa; heightened risk in Hong Kong; and U.S. elections testing Wall Street nerves. Opportunities will abound, too. All this and more awaits in a pivotal year for politics, profit and planet.

An ever-drier world will unleash investment flood

6 Jan 2020

By 2030 humans will be using 56% more water than is sustainable, a new report shows. Closing the gap may cost $1 trln a year. But companies and investors are showing more interest in preventing a global water crisis. That bodes well for finding solutions – and making a profit.

Predictions 2020: Turning up the heat

6 Jan 2020

Expect investors and banks to join the climate-change fight; pain in Russia and South Africa; heightened risk in Hong Kong; and U.S. elections testing Wall Street nerves. Opportunities will abound, too. All this and more awaits in a pivotal year for politics, profit and planet.

Europe will emulate Japan’s foreign takeover binge

6 Jan 2020

A shrinking domestic market and cheap money prompted Japanese firms to ramp up abroad. Their EU counterparts already have greater international exposure but face similar stagnation and demographics at home. Watch the shopping habits of Siemens, Eni, Roche, ING, SocGen and others.

Beijing steers green cars in a new direction

6 Jan 2020

Subsidy cuts exposed tepid demand for electric vehicles in a country that accounts for 40% of global sales. Hybrids will gain stronger state support instead. China’s sway spells trouble for the likes of Tesla and Nio while giving a charge to others including Toyota and Honda.

Hong Kong poised to reclaim IPO crown

6 Jan 2020

It has been a decade since the Asian financial hub beat the Big Apple in new equity issuance. Violent protests are a challenge, but Alibaba provided some reassurance. The U.S. backlash against China and a stable of mainland unicorns will help make Hong Kong No. 1 again in 2020.

Beyond Meat readies for a difficult second course

3 Jan 2020

The meatless burger maker was a capital markets star in 2019, and sports triple-digit revenue growth. But it also bears the risks of uncertain demand, dependence on retailers and fierce rivals. Founder Ethan Brown could learn from another once-racy consumer brand: Under Armour.

Argentina debt do-over is even chancier than usual

3 Jan 2020

The country will need to restructure at least $100 bln of its borrowings, not just tweak terms as the Fernandez government favors. The novel features attached to Argentine debt after its last default may bring unexpected twists. The results will shape future sovereign debt deals.

Deutsche, Commerz get 30-year reunification bonus

3 Jan 2020

New businesses flourished after East Germany rejoined the West in 1990. Their founders are now approaching retirement, and heirs may have no interest in running the family firm. That’ll spark a Mittelstand M&A boom, bringing much-needed fees for the country’s embattled banks.

Underdog will take home Japan’s casino jackpot

3 Jan 2020

Malaysia’s Genting is not the bookies' favourite as it competes for a coveted licence in the new market, worth $10 bln or more. But while it lacks Galaxy’s glitz or the scale of Las Vegas Sands, the betting group’s success in super strict Singapore will give it a winning edge.

Viewsroom: Green M&A in 2020

2 Jan 2020

CEOs increasingly talk a good game on climate change, but the financial implications of global warming have played a small role in dealmaking so far. That will change in the year ahead. Also: why the video-game industry should be bracing for a political backlash.

Hotter inflation is the best surprise to hope for

2 Jan 2020

The absence of much price pressure is a head-scratcher for the Fed given the tight U.S. labor market. It’s behind debilitating negative interest rates in Europe and Japan. It’s a problem for pension funds, insurers, savers and banks. A mild return would be unexpected but welcome.

Greta Thunberg will clog EU budget-airline engines

2 Jan 2020

Climate change will make regulators rethink free carbon credits and impose fuel taxes, hitting easyJet and Norwegian Air hard. More pain would come if the teen activist-inspired drop in Swedish air travel spreads across Europe. All in, 48 bln euros of industry value is at risk.

Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold

2 Jan 2020

Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.

Mukesh Ambani’s empire will be cast in fresh light

2 Jan 2020

India’s richest man can reap two big benefits from carving up his sprawling Reliance Industries. First, he would fulfill a promise to make the $130 bln oil-to-telecom conglomerate almost free of debt. It also should help achieve a higher, tech-like valuation from investors.

A health craze for 2020: Chinese medicine

2 Jan 2019

A locally-developed cancer therapy from the People's Republic has won U.S. approval for the first time. For pharmaceutical giants, discovering a made-in-China blockbuster drug may be within reach. Cross-border deals will follow, as will some unexpected side effects.

HR nous will make or break CEOs’ tech ambitions

31 Dec 2019

Bosses from fashion to financial services love talking about big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They list Alphabet and Amazon as rivals for talent. That makes for an extremely tight tech-job market, bringing creative hiring and retention skills to the fore.