Predictions 2019

Italy’s woes could spell LVMH moment for Moncler

2 Jan 2019

Italian luxury brands have so far resisted becoming conglomerates like the French behemoth and rival Kering. But generational shifts by founders, combined with an aversion to political risk by global investors, may afford Moncler boss Remo Ruffini his opportunity to change that.

E-book: Predictions 2019

2 Jan 2019

Equities look overvalued, economies are slowing, and the world’s two biggest economies are at loggerheads. In 2019 there will be high flyers, high jinks, and more people getting high. But there are too many high-stakes situations for there not to be plenty more left high and dry. Read online or download the PDF.

Breakingviews predicts a year of High Anxiety

2 Jan 2019

Equities look overvalued, economies are slowing, and the world’s two biggest economies are at loggerheads. In 2019 there will be high flyers, high jinks, and more people getting high. But there are too many high-stakes situations for there not to be plenty more left high and dry.

Superapps will starve the rest in Southeast Asia

2 Jan 2019

Cash is being lavished on giants, Grab and Go-Jek, which dabble in everything from ride-hailing to groceries. It’s a Chinese approach to snaring online consumers. As investors follow SoftBank and Tencent’s seal, the gap will widen between these “do it all” outfits and the rest.

Blockchain will finally make itself useful

31 Dec 2018

The distributed-ledger technology associated with bitcoin is due a breakthrough in 2019. Banks and companies are gradually applying versions of it to tasks like settlement. Demonstrating blockchain’s utility, though, will say little about the value of cryptocurrencies themselves.

A made-in-America market will be a distorted one

31 Dec 2018

An all-U.S. iPhone X, if even feasible, could double the current $1,000 price tag. Argentina's cellphone experiment early this decade is a useful comparison. It shows how Donald Trump's import restrictions, taken to their logical end, will only create a dysfunctional economy.

Euro faces tough adulescence

31 Dec 2018

The currency enters its third decade with flaws that date back to conception. They were fully exposed after early market successes gave way to a teenage existential crisis. These weaknesses have the power to ruin adulthood as the drug of cheap central bank money slowly runs out.

A plucky local upstart will take on Macau’s moguls

31 Dec 2018

Regulators in the world’s largest gambling hub could allow new players onto the casino floor when licenses expire in 2020. With frayed U.S.-China relations dealing American giants Sands and Wynn a weak hand, homegrown names like Suncity and Golden Dragon will try their luck.

Tallying our 2018 predictions hits – and misses

31 Dec 2018

Looking back at last year’s forecasts, our crystal ball produced some hits: Presidents Trump and Xi unsettled global growth, bitcoin bombed, scandals rocked Japan, and #MeToo broke into the boardroom. But halting Saudi reforms and drooping Apple shares were among the bloopers.

Brazil will get energy mostly right; Mexico won’t

28 Dec 2018

New regimes of opposing ideologies in Latam’s two biggest economies will wrestle with balancing 1970s-style nationalism against the need to open up to foreign and private capital to exploit their oil and gas resources. Brazil’s far-right president-elect has the better prospects.

Boardroom brawls will be child’s play to politics

28 Dec 2018

Starbucks’ founder, hedgie Tom Steyer, Mike Bloomberg and Mark Cuban are mulling U.S. presidential runs. Billionaires selling coffee, data or stocks may not find their skills useful in a bruising political race with 30-some Democratic candidates calling out their immense wealth.

EU investment banks face the regulatory microscope

28 Dec 2018

With the region’s bad-debt crisis on the wane, supervisors will shift their focus to probing lenders’ risk models and 132 billion euros of hard-to-value assets. For banks which had previously relied on their own guesstimates, that could mean higher capital charges.

China will outdo U.S. in scramble for Africa

28 Dec 2018

Beijing will cement its position as the leading power on the continent, countering a U.S. pushback. Besides flexing muscles from Djibouti, its first overseas base, China will squeeze U.S. firms out of commercial and mining deals as tensions take on a Cold-War tinge.

ByteDance will take over B in China’s BAT

28 Dec 2018

The fast-growing startup behind AI-powered news and video apps Toutiao and TikTok is valued at $75 bln, on par with Baidu. Marketing and tech synergies would benefit both if ad spending falls. A 2019 merger will help rebalance the power with acronym partners Alibaba and Tencent.

Expect a Macquarie 50th anniversary deal

28 Dec 2018

The Aussie financial conglomerate has routinely embarked on strategy-shifting acquisitions, including asset management and energy trading, since it began in 1969. Local banks are hurting now. Buying one will be new boss Shemara Wikramanayake’s half-century gift to shareholders.

Welcome the new AI investment overlords

27 Dec 2018

Man vs. machine will replace active vs. passive as the dominant battle in the $80 trln money-management war. Pressure to cut costs keeps mounting while artificial intelligence gets better at systematic trading, crunching data and identifying trends. Logic favors the computers.

Small nations will lose most from U.S. WTO fight

27 Dec 2018

The global trade body’s appeals panel may become paralyzed because of U.S. obstinacy. America, China and the EU can wring commerce concessions without filing complaints. Minnows like Panama and Moldova lack other recourse and will suffer if trade turns into a free-for-all.

Deutsche Bank will be unlikely 2019 trading star

27 Dec 2018

Europe’s largest investment bank is undergoing its second restructuring in as many years under new boss Christian Sewing. Torrid trading means the lender trades at a fraction of book value. But its business mix should do especially well from currency volatility and rising rates.

Investors will swap City offices for Euro sheds

27 Dec 2018

Yields on shiny London real estate are on the floor, and Brexit could affect sky-high capital values. Luckily, those looking to invest in property in 2019 have a Plan B. European warehouses are both cheap and likely to gain from an ongoing surge of online commerce.

Asia’s tech titans face Nissan-style key-man risk

27 Dec 2018

Startup founders have flourished in the region, taking over where old-school tycoons left off. Yet after Carlos Ghosn and a storm at JD, shareholders see charismatic bosses as liabilities too. Such concerns may mean unwanted attention at SoftBank, Foxconn and others in 2019.