Predictions 2018

The Exchange: Italy’s finance boss

8 Feb 2018

Pier Carlo Padoan, who has run Rome's Ministry of Economy and Finance for the past four years and under its last two prime ministers, says Italy must continue economic reforms no matter who wins elections in March. Padoan also predicts no "Italian surprise" at the polls.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future

7 Feb 2018

Even so, Reuters Breakingviews attempts it each year. The latest effort, “Froth and Frustration,” inspired a series of events and discussions. We also polled audiences from North America to Asia and beyond on key issues. Here’s the outlook for 2018 in text, video and graphics.

Cox: Sliding stocks don’t surprise our readers

5 Feb 2018

From Mumbai to Milan, we polled participants at our Predictions 2018 summits. Even before last week's rout, most thought investors are too exuberant, bitcoin is a bubble and Donald Trump is doing poorly. More surprising were regional takes on NAFTA, Italian elections and Brexit.

Breakingviews predicts a frothy, frustrated year

5 Jan 2018

Money is cheap, the global economy is motoring, and tech is reshaping the world. Populism is still driving discord and uncertainty, but markets are ebullient. From elections to electric cars, we offer a series of insights into what 2018 has in store for companies and economies.

Electric cars will catch up with gas guzzlers

5 Jan 2018

Plans to ban dirty vehicles are stoking investment in clean transport, driving down costs. Consumers could find battery power as cheap as combustion engines for the first time in 2018. But it will be harder to drive up profitability. Automakers will struggle as margins tighten.

Canada will export its pension model to U.S.

4 Jan 2018

Canada’s retirement funds are well funded and governed, run most of their money in-house, shun rosy assumptions and post good returns. As the need to lift returns increases, expect struggling U.S. public pensions to adopt at least some of their northern neighbors’ approach.

Verizon will be one of 2018’s few mega-dealmakers

4 Jan 2018

As the ground shakes more strongly under the media and telecom industries, the U.S. wireless titan has only reacted tentatively. Owning Yahoo hardly qualifies as pivotal. Buying Dish, however, could make a difference. Big mergers are on the wane, but Verizon will buck the trend.

Germany will follow money in EU top jobs carve-up

4 Jan 2018

Jockeying to replace the region’s most powerful people, including European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi, will begin in earnest in 2018. Proposed new posts like a euro zone finance minister complicate the contest. Berlin will prefer control of purse strings to interest rates.

Hong Kong will start atoning for missing Alibaba

4 Jan 2018

The city lost many Chinese tech listings to New York. But it is building a critical mass of stocks, analysts and investors, and is poised to weaken governance rules in favour of founders. That sets the stage for the IPOs of rising stars Didi, Toutiao and Meituan-Dianping.

Clothing retailers will struggle to resize

3 Jan 2018

E-commerce isn’t the only thing plaguing outfits like Macy’s. U.S. apparel inventories have risen sharply since the financial crisis while prices and sales have fallen. Ripping the pattern requires slimming down and cutting back on discounts, but deal-seeking consumers may balk.

Tech salad will come with a side of SLAW in 2018

3 Jan 2018

Spotify, Lyft, Airbnb and WeWork are all potentially going public in the coming year. None of them may ever match the scale of a FAANG or BAT. But each is disruptive in its own way, and offers investors a unique play on the future of cities, mobility, work and play. Bon appetit!

China’s small-fry banks will start merging in 2018

3 Jan 2018

Squeezed by tighter money, cooling property and anxious regulators, the country’s 4,399 lenders will begin to consolidate. Some deals will boost efficiency; others will force crummy assets into healthier banks. For foreign buyers, the challenge is telling which is which.

Predictions 2018

2 Jan 2018

From elections to electric cars, we offer a series of insights into what 2018 has in store for companies and economies. Read our predictions online or download the book  

TV content wars will have grisly season finale

2 Jan 2018

Netflix plans to hike its spending on programming by 33 pct this year. Add in Apple, Amazon and Hulu, and a fightback by traditional media, and budgets are rising faster than video-streaming revenue. It’s a golden age for viewers, and a nail-biter for the companies themselves.

Activists’ guide to 2018 (sponsored by P&G)

2 Jan 2018

Investors seeking new strategies, more dividends or board seats aren't going away. The siege of the Pampers maker by Trian, which ultimately won a board seat, will embolden others to take up the cause. Resistance isn't futile, but needs to be more carefully considered.

Passive funds will claim a CEO scalp in 2018

2 Jan 2018

Index trackers keep winning market share but companies can’t take their passivity for granted. State Street campaigns for gender diversity, Vanguard and BlackRock defied Exxon on climate change, and the latter backed Nelson Peltz at P&G. Firing a poor manager is the next step.

Italy will go back to its old ways in 2018

2 Jan 2018

The country’s flawed electoral law will produce a hung parliament in national polls. Reformist forces will be weaker while former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will gain traction. A return to the frail coalitions of the past makes it harder to cut public debt and red tape.

What we got right – and wrong – in 2017

2 Jan 2018

Breakingviews foresaw a dip in mega-deals; bank bailouts in India; and a “Chinese” turn in U.S. governance. But columnists overestimated the pace of change in America, and some fantasy M&A stayed precisely that. With 20/20 hindsight, silence was not always golden either.

Our 2018 predictions on Reuters TV

31 Dec 2017

From the CEOs who should run for U.S. president, to the banks that ought to be sizing up mergers, our writers give their take on the coming year in a series of Reuters video reports.

Wanted: Italian-American carmaker seeks new driver

29 Dec 2017

CEO Sergio Marchionne will soon head for FCA’s off ramp. A blizzard of well-timed deals helped spark stellar returns, but the group has low margins and big gaps. Marchionne also wears too many hats. Breakingviews imagines a consultant advising the board on picking his successor.