Politics

Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

13 Feb 2025

President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may end Moscow’s war. For the EU this won’t mean lower defence spending. The likely end of the US security blanket, and an emboldened Russia, will force Europeans to accelerate their military overhaul.

Ending US aid will heat up sovereign debt fights

13 Feb 2025

There’s a strong case for reforming the global foreign-assistance industry. But President Donald Trump’s approach is blunt and deadly. It may also trigger a crisis in low-income countries that are heavily dependent on aid before it provides Washington any extra leverage.

Sticky inflation is a quagmire for tariff plans

12 Feb 2025

A surprisingly high 3% annual rise in US prices threatens to halt interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and that’s before new tariffs go into effect. Policymakers seem to see gutting spending as the preferred fix. Scrapping inflationary trade barriers is a better bet.

Global trade tantrum will yield diminished returns

11 Feb 2025

President Trump’s early pattern is to threaten trade sanctions then yank them back after winning concessions. But new 25% steel duties and reciprocal levies are trickier to nix. A face-off against the whole world makes achieving strategic goals harder, risking bigger ruptures.

The long haul to reviving Britain’s economy

11 Feb 2025

Productivity has slowed, real wages are stagnant, and investment has dried up. The new UK government also faces high debt and rising interest rates. In this episode of The Big View podcast, newly appointed minister Torsten Bell makes the case for radical but incremental change.

The end of the West may be nigh

10 Feb 2025

China’s rise had already put the world’s rich democracies on the defensive. Now Donald Trump is swinging a wrecking ball at the alliances, values and institutions that underpin Western power. While it may be possible to salvage something, the omens are not good.

Disappearing US data dims economic outlook

7 Feb 2025

Every industry relies on government facts and figures, some of which Donald Trump is purging. Heavy users generated $750 bln of revenue in 2022, growing their share of GDP by 50% in a decade. If official information is less available or trusted, expect more garbage in – and out.

US tariff posturing is dangerous game of chicken

6 Feb 2025

Donald Trump’s hastily enacted and retracted trade wars are ratcheting up global tensions as Europe, China and Latin American countries prepare to retaliate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the motivation for trade wars and why there will be no winners.

Tesla and SpaceX are ideal trade war hostages

5 Feb 2025

If President Trump makes good on tariff threats, smaller nations can amplify any retaliation: target his allies. The $1.2 trln carmaker and $350 bln satellite firm’s sky-high valuations benefit from Elon Musk’s political ties. They aren’t pricing in risks to hefty overseas sales.

TikTok has a simple exit from US ban maze

4 Feb 2025

Attempts to force a sale of the social media app keep getting stuck. One solution: spin most of it out to existing owners of parent ByteDance, with new investors taking a stake. It would mean ceding founder control, but at least capture some of the implied $100 bln value.

How US presidents imposed their will on CEOs

4 Feb 2025

Tycoons like Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg bent the knee to Donald Trump. They’re not the first to bow to the Oval Office. In this episode of The Big View podcast, former White House aide Tevi Troy explores the shifting balance of power between corporate and political leaders.

Trade war brinksmanship reveals US vulnerability

3 Feb 2025

A one-month pause on tariffs against Mexico may pull the continent back from spiraling retaliatory levies. Abrupt hostilities would slam farmers and carmakers, both used to government protection, immediately. It’s a tactical weakness that President Trump risks running right into.

Markets send Trump a risky message on tariffs

3 Feb 2025

The US president’s 25% levies against Canada and Mexico have prompted carmakers and other stocks to slump. But neither equity nor bond investors look to be yet pricing in a long-lasting trade war or inflationary spiral. That implies less pressure on Trump to be more conciliatory.

India’s tax cuts grasp at a fleeting growth fix

3 Feb 2025

By hiking the income-tax exemption threshold, Narendra Modi’s government hopes the middle class will go out and spend. But that leaves the state relying on 1% of the working age population to help pay its bills. It throws the urgency to tackle stagnant wages into sharp relief.

Unsung rebels fend off US policy whiplash

30 Jan 2025

Legal authorities nationwide helped block the White House’s $3 trln funding freeze, a reminder of how federalism curbs power even if one party rules Washington. During Donald Trump’s first term, states won 83% of cases against him. It’s a valuable political, and economic, buffer.

Excessive belt-tightening risks choking US economy

28 Jan 2025

A budget edict citing 'wokeness' and 'transgenderism' claims to temporarily freeze $3 trln in federal grants and loans. Chipmakers, small business owners and medical researchers are among those probably affected. If no one stops the overreach, the consequences may be dangerous.

Renault and BMW have best airbags for auto crash

28 Jan 2025

European carmakers face carbon fines at home and trade duties in the US and China. Operating profit probably fell 26% on average last year. Valuations are low across the board, but France’s Renault and Germany’s BMW have less to fear than their rivals from the coming storm.

Colombia spat is pyrrhic start to Trump trade wars

27 Jan 2025

The US president declared victory after threatening a trade war with the country over deportation flights. But to prove it’s no bluff may mean following through on promised levies on Canada and Mexico that risk real domestic harm - before even getting to the big issue of China.

Mediobanca’s best M&A defence is the market

27 Jan 2025

The 13 bln euro bank is facing a hostile bid from MPS. CEO Alberto Nagel could in theory court a white knight, like Intesa, or try a deal of his own. But his own rebel shareholders and the Italian government make that tricky. Attacking the merger’s logic looks like his best bet.

Europe will have to accommodate Trump for now

27 Jan 2025

If the bloc was strong, it could hit back against the new White House resident’s bullying on tax, trade and business. But since it needs US arms to help Ukraine, Brussels will have to cut deals with Donald Trump – while building its strength to gain longer-term independence.