Politics

Where Berlin’s voters go, Germany may not follow

19 Sep 2016

Angela Merkel's grand coalition lost power in the city, while right-wing populists won their first seats there. But an easing refugee crisis, and western Germans' loyalty to mainstream parties, suggest that the 2017 national election will bring less of an upheaval.

Globalisation needs better cheerleaders

13 Sep 2016

Free trade and capital flows are often blamed for disadvantaging workers in the West. A new study suggests they have not all fared as poorly as many believe, and that domestic policies can make a difference. Still, statistics and studies alone won’t shake globalisation’s bad rap.

Dear candidate: a letter to David Cameron

13 Sep 2016

The former prime minister is leaving the world of politics. His predecessor Gordon Brown now advises fund manager Pimco; Tony Blair before him took a role at JPMorgan. Cameron, who instigated Britain’s referendum on leaving the EU, may find the job market a harsher place.

Fed governor’s rate view helps her Treasury pitch

13 Sep 2016

Lael Brainard struck a dovish note on interest rates ahead of the central bank’s next meeting. She’s also a leading candidate to be Treasury secretary in a Clinton administration. Her soothing words could help mollify progressives suspicious of her past role in trade deals.

Chancellor: No hyperinflation, just Weimar malaise

13 Sep 2016

Central-bank money printing hasn't produced the spiralling prices that plagued the Weimar Republic. It has, though, delivered some of the social disquiet of 1920s Germany. Policymakers urging more extreme monetary actions need to exercise caution lest they get what they wish for.

Five Star scandal could boost Italian assets

7 Sep 2016

The radical political movement’s Rome mayor is on the ropes. That could reduce the risk of a 5-Star win at a national level, and encourage Prime Minster Matteo Renzi to consolidate power by calling elections. It could also reduce Italian debt’s penalty compared to Spain.

Global leaders test limits of spreading wealth

6 Sep 2016

“Inclusion” was the buzzword at the G20 conflab. A fairer distribution of the fruits of growth is urgent when globalisation is under attack in the West. The challenge for politicians is to reduce inequality within rich countries without the rest of the world suffering.

German protest vote could entrench Merkel

5 Sep 2016

In a regional election on the chancellor's home turf, the far-right Alternative for Germany won more votes than her own CDU. The populists' rise will increase political noise. Yet it also makes a continuation of Angela Merkel's current coalition after 2017 more likely.

Spain’s driverless economy will run out of gas

1 Sep 2016

The acting prime minister just lost a confidence vote; Spain has gone all year without a government. Yet the economy is doing remarkably well, even with no one at the wheel. It’s unlikely that can continue through 2017. Dysfunctional politics will take its toll.

Review: The limits of predicting China’s demise

19 Aug 2016

The country's prospects are bleak, David Shambaugh argues in "China's Future". His critique of the Communist Party's political flaws goes far deeper than most forecasts of economic collapse. Yet foretelling doom at some indeterminate point in the future still has limited value.

Emperor makes worrying emblem for ageing Japan

8 Aug 2016

Japan's 82-year-old Emperor Akihito suggests he might want to step down. His situation is unique but his people are greying rapidly too. That shift is shaping everything from workplace practices to monetary policy. An ageing world will need to watch Japan's experience closely.

Greece will prove if IMF mea culpa is genuine

29 Jul 2016

The international lender's handling of the Greek 2010 bailout is censured by an internal report. Some of the critique is dated and IMF boss Christine Lagarde says lessons were already learnt. The litmus test will be how trenchantly she insists on new debt relief for the country.

Theresa May may have saved EDF from itself

29 Jul 2016

The state-owned French utility’s 12 bln pound investment in nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point could unravel after the UK’s new prime minister initiated a surprise review of the high-risk, high-cost project. Pulling the plug would do UK taxpayers and EDF shareholders a big favour.

Dixon: Stock markets too sanguine about Brexit

28 Jul 2016

Investors think the UK will settle easily into a new deal with the European Union. More likely there will be cabinet wrangles, tortuous negotiations with the EU, and an unsatisfactory conclusion.

Trump chooses fear mongering over economic promise

22 Jul 2016

The White House hopeful was anointed at the GOP convention. He and other speakers, like tech investor Peter Thiel, presented a dire picture. The economy is stable but violence at home and abroad has unnerved voters. The grim message, coupled with populist appeal, could resonate.

Hadas: The realist’s approach to Brexit

20 Jul 2016

It's easy to think of things Britain might want to keep if it leaves the European Union. But an alternative approach is to work out what aspects it most wants to cast off. That leads to a difficult conclusion: what the UK really wants is what it already has.

Turkey will pay high price for political stability

18 Jul 2016

President Tayyip Erdogan is reasserting control after seeing off a military coup. He offers stability of sorts, which explains why Turkish assets pared knee-jerk losses. But his crackdown also engenders uncertainty, which investors loathe. Luring foreign money will be harder.

Turkey’s failed coup leaves no victors

16 Jul 2016

President Tayyip Erdogan’s government survived an attempted military coup but has few reasons for triumphalism. Much-needed foreign capital is likely to flee, and all the faster if there are harsh reprisals. Economic damage risks making this key U.S. and EU ally less reliable.

Kurdistan oil bust is study in underestimated risk

14 Jul 2016

Creditors will take control of Gulf Keystone after falling prices, excessive debt, unreliable payments and unrest left a company once worth nearly 4 bln pounds essentially bankrupt. Huge oil majors can afford such risks, but most investors should avoid wannabes that take them.

Assault on UK privilege has many possible targets

14 Jul 2016

Theresa May wants to focus on more than the "privileged few". If Britain's new prime minister is serious, the most glaring disparities are in pensions, savings, housing and infrastructure. Action in these areas would go some way to healing north/south and young/old rifts.