Politics

New Stellantis CEO’s first job is a US reset

2 Dec 2024

Carlos Tavares’ abrupt exit comes after the $34 bln carmaker hiked prices and lost market share. The ideal new CEO – able to steer a course around Trump, EU emissions rules and new tech – may not exist. Stellantis could settle for a US expert who can get car dealers back on side.

Why Mexico’s global trade sweet spot may turn sour

2 Dec 2024

The country has hugely benefitted from the 'nearshoring' trend, and last year surpassed China with $475 bln of US goods exports. President-elect Donald Trump’s 25% tariff plan would undermine that progress. And the new Mexican government has little room to soften the blow.

Currency drop worsens Moscow’s stagflation fears

29 Nov 2024

The Russian central bank may have to hike interest rates from an already high 21% after this week’s rouble meltdown, caused by US sanctions on a key bank. But its real problem is that inflation keeps rising as the economy is slowing, deepening fears of a crash-landing.

France faces long-term pain more than debt crisis

28 Nov 2024

Fears that PM Michel Barnier will be ousted by parliament after failing to pass his budget sent French spreads to a 12-year high. The country’s size and resources shield it from a sharp fiscal crunch, but six months without a proper government would weigh heavily on its finances.

European pharma’s growth prescription: pivot to US

28 Nov 2024

Novartis, Novo Nordisk and regional rivals lost $86 bln in value over concerns about tariffs and other possible measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Stateside M&A and manufacturing moves could ease the pain and boost revenue. But hopping across the pond will mean paying up.

Oil’s geopolitical risk premium is still there

27 Nov 2024

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have struck a peace deal brokered by the US and France. In theory, a calmer Middle East plus weaker demand forecasts should prompt a tangible slide in the price of crude. But a tougher US policy on Iran merits an ongoing risk premium.

Big Tech’s Irish grip is immune to election shocks

27 Nov 2024

Sinn Féin wants Ireland to ditch its centre-right coalition. If their hard-left policies win, it would give the likes of Google a fright. But with a cadre of multinationals providing 60% of corporate tax receipts, policy will continue to be weighted towards them regardless.

Indian business may learn wrong lesson from Adani

27 Nov 2024

US corruption charges against tycoon Gautam Adani have cast a shadow over Narendra Modi’s war on graft. The prime minister has made progress. But rather than spurring a cleanup in the $4 trln economy, the saga might just make its capitalists warier of tapping global markets.

Italian bank M&A circus risks sidelining investors

26 Nov 2024

Andrea Orcel’s UniCredit offered 10 bln euros for Banco BPM, irking Rome and potentially eliciting a rival swoop from the target’s 9.2% owner Crédit Agricole. Meanwhile BPM may launch its own bid for Monte dei Paschi. The risk is that shareholder interests get lost in the noise.

Trump’s tariff gambit doesn’t have to make sense

26 Nov 2024

Economists pencilled in maximum levies of 20% but the president-elect is now promising 25% for Mexico and Canada and a fresh 10% for China. His linking of those to fentanyl flows to the US shows taxes are a cudgel to use at will, not just a tool for rebalancing global trade.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

Trump Treasury pick is a Rorschach test, for now

22 Nov 2024

Hedge funder Scott Bessent is a Wall Street veteran, yet a fierce loyalist to a tariffs-and-tax-cuts agenda. The idea of a safe pair of hands may soothe market fears over less conventional potential picks. But that image can only last if he blunts Trump’s most out-there impulses.

Hong Kong regains some lustre amid China’s gloom

22 Nov 2024

Top mainland officials made a rare appearance alongside CEOs like David Solomon at a conference in the city. It's a sign Beijing will lean on Hong Kong more to tap global capital and navigate looming US tariffs. Potential market reforms could benefit the finance hub, too.

There are few good ways out of China’s stock slump

21 Nov 2024

Despite a recent bounce driven by stimulus hopes, the country’s benchmark equity index is down by nearly a third in the past three-and-a-half years. Though valuations look cheap, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to even worse outcomes for investors.

Bitcoin’s $100,000 moment will be a perfect storm

21 Nov 2024

The digital currency’s price is inching towards the six-figure threshold. Between buying from crypto whale MicroStrategy, the launch of options contracts on spot ETFs, and potentially looser regulations under President-elect Donald Trump, the euphoria is becoming self-sustaining.

Europe’s Starlink-lite is a worthwhile also-ran

21 Nov 2024

EU satellite players like Eutelsat are debt-laden minnows compared to Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned behemoth. But given Starlink now owns more than 60% of all working satellites, Europe has to start somewhere. Investors shouldn’t count on galactic returns, though.

US oil spigot bypasses the White House

19 Nov 2024

President Trump promises to 'drill, baby, drill'. Yet the correlation between US oil production and the occupant of the Oval Office appears close to zero. With investors demanding dividends, consumption flat, and the world oversupplied, wishes for new wells may go unfulfilled.

Ukraine support is cheaper option for Europe

19 Nov 2024

New US President Donald Trump could cut aid to Kyiv. But the Old Continent has the means, and reasons, to pay up. Letting Russia win would mean more defence spending, a refugee crisis and geopolitical strife. That’s a bigger toll than the 0.4% of GDP the bloc would need to spend.

Trump’s ideal Treasury pick: squarer of circles

18 Nov 2024

The president-elect wants tariffs that could up inflation by 75 bps, but also booming stocks and calm bonds. Jostling is underway between banker Howard Lutnick, investor Scott Bessent and others to be this agenda’s key emissary. But personnel cannot resolve policy tension.

Trump 2.0 will see more European firms do a Holcim

18 Nov 2024

The $56 bln Swiss building materials group is splitting off its US unit and listing it separately. Some CEOs may think President-elect Donald Trump will spur a growth spurt. Fear of missing out, and a huge valuation gap, will make other European companies ponder similar moves.