Politics

Colombia wises up to perils of direct democracy

16 Nov 2016

President Santos and FARC rebels tweaked a peace deal that was narrowly nixed in a Brexit-style plebiscite. The new pact looks likely to go to Congress for approval rather than another referendum, a prudent move given voters' inscrutability. The economy needs an end to war.

IBM understands the art of the deal

16 Nov 2016

Boss Ginni Rometty pitched President-elect Donald Trump with a job-training program, IT efficiency and a tax cut. They'd be good for IBM, and maybe even America. Conspicuously missing from her letter, however, is any mention of how Watson is bound to displace many workers.

Canada a small, vulnerable blip on Trump radar

15 Nov 2016

Markets up north have barely budged on America's surprising election outcome. Investors appear to be gambling Trump's call to rip up NAFTA won't affect the export-dependent economy. Perhaps, but Canada is susceptible to other forms of turbulence emanating from Washington.

Mexico’s greatest defense against Trump is time

11 Nov 2016

The U.S. president-elect's victory sent the peso plunging. His trade and immigration policies could, if enacted, turn Mexico into the poor, unfriendly country Trump's overheated rhetoric decried. But economic and political reality suggest patience could pay off.

Chancellor: Trump victory upsets the rent-seekers

11 Nov 2016

A belief that elites are taking an ever larger slice of the economic pie is what got the real-estate mogul elected. This conforms to political scientist Mancur Olson's theory that growth declines when "distributional coalitions" are maintained. Trouble is, Trump is one of them.

Trump’s team puts new economic theory to test

9 Nov 2016

The reality-TV star appealed to voters by railing against the establishment. And yet a range of financiers from Goldman Sachs, KKR and various hedge funds may wind up advising him. It's time to see whether a group without Washington experience can improve on America's fortunes.

Pollsters make an all-too-easy punching bag

9 Nov 2016

Pollsters have had a terrible 2016, missing Brexit and now the U.S. election results. But factor in margins of error and the picture looks better. The risk is that high-profile failures lead to voter cynicism, fewer polls, and less transparent data.

Trump gives Europe’s iconoclasts fresh credibility

9 Nov 2016

Anti-establishment politicians in Germany, France and the Netherlands hailed the next U.S. president. He shows inexperience and nationalism are no barrier to victory. Mainstream parties could borrow their rivals' clothes before elections next year. But time is not on their side.

Putin gains Trump card in geopolitical poker game

9 Nov 2016

The election of America's new president leaves Ukraine, the Baltic states and Russian sanctions up in the air. A falling oil price and Syrian engagement limit Russia's options, and Trump's true views are unclear. But the electoral outcome leaves Putin with more freedom to act.

Needless Chinese haste risks Hong Kong waste

7 Nov 2016

Beijing has preempted the territory's courts by interpreting the Basic Law to prevent two independence activists from taking office. Markets are shrugging as black-clad youths protest, but long-termists in the financial sector should be more rattled about Hong Kong's future.

UK government court loss is no bar to hard Brexit

3 Nov 2016

Prime Minister Theresa May needs parliament's approval to trigger the EU exit process, judges ruled. She could win the vote even if she loses any appeal, and restricting May's negotiating position risks weakening her hand. The legal ruling is no roadblock to a damaging divorce.

Russia austerity budget is no antidote to low oil

2 Nov 2016

Moscow wants to freeze spending to cut the country’s deficit amidst a low oil price. Yet the three-year budget doesn’t tackle Russia’s dismal growth, or wasteful spending on damaging conflicts. And President Vladimir Putin may not stick to the cautious plan.

Scandal in Seoul masks bigger economic problems

3 Nov 2016

A furore over a quirky confidante is buffeting South Korean President Park Geun-hye. The regularity of such crises attests to poor governance. But that's only part of a larger challenge: avoiding Japan-style stagnation despite heavy debts, weak exports and an ageing population.

South Africa, land of the limping buffalo

2 Nov 2016

President Jacob Zuma faces a new probe over corruption allegations, just days after inflated charges against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan were binned. Graft worsens South Africa's challenges, from unemployment to slow growth. Zuma himself is central to the problem.

Merkel’s climate-change zeal turns into hot air

2 Nov 2016

The German chancellor fought hard for tough global carbon reduction targets. Yet at home, implementation of the Paris accord is gridlocked by fears of job losses, and an important plan has been delayed. If Angela Merkel cools on fighting climate change, the world is in trouble.

MPS’ best bet is faulty Plan A

1 Nov 2016

The troubled Italian lender rebuffed a rescue plan from banker Corrado Passera, who says the board obstructed his efforts. With the clock ticking, MPS had good reason to stick with its current rescue plan. Yet Passera’s criticisms are valid.

Saudi finance minister reshuffle reflects reality

1 Nov 2016

Outgoing Ibrahim Alassaf served for 20 years in an increasingly disempowered ministry. Replacing him now is a nod to the more centralised control of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and that reducing Saudi's budget deficit is indivisible from wider policy on oil.

Hadas: The left behind can’t blame globalisation

31 Oct 2016

Has the rise of cheap labour in poor countries harmed unskilled workers in rich lands? Sure, but it’s a new twist of an old story - technological unemployment. Even though the problems are fairly easy to solve, governments continue to fail many of the latest losers.

South African U-turn on Gordhan is Pyrrhic victory

31 Oct 2016

The rand has recovered after the national prosecutor dropped fraud charges against the finance minister. Relief that Pravin Gordhan will stay on to repair the stuttering economy may be short-lived. The case has revived concern about political interference in state institutions.

Britain better off if Carney stays

31 Oct 2016

The governor’s tenure has become a test of the Bank of England’s status. If he left in 2018 the decision would spook foreign investors and embolden the bank’s domestic critics. Extending his term would signal that the British government still values independent monetary policy.