Politics

Hadas: Castro’s mourners show distress of the left

29 Nov 2016

The Cuban strongman's death would have passed almost unnoticed, if he had not been the last communist revolutionary idealist standing. He is unlikely to have successors on the left, which has been ideologically exhausted by success. The nationalist right is another matter.

Italian assets too sanguine on referendum risks

29 Nov 2016

Bruised Italian markets are clawing back some losses even though Prime Minister Matteo Renzi risks losing a constitutional referendum. Rejection would usher in a period of weak government. The rebound is premature and shows markets' struggle to prepare for extreme outcomes.

Zimbabwe’s new quasi-currency fails the smell test

29 Nov 2016

The sub-Saharan state is issuing dollar-backed "bond notes" as a means of payment. It's an attempt to ease the huge trade deficit which is sucking hard currency out of Zimbabwe. But it requires citizens to trust the central bank responsible for the country’s hyperinflation.

Brexit transition headache has EEA painkiller fix

28 Nov 2016

UK courts could rule that Britain can stay part of the European Economic Area when it quits the EU.  If so, ongoing single market access could numb Brexit's impact. If lawmakers also pledged to quit the EEA in, say, 2025, the more rational Brexiteers might even support it.

Francois Fillon is test of French reform appetite

28 Nov 2016

The former prime minister's win in conservative primaries makes him a theoretical shoo-in to become president in 2017. But his economic platform is more radical than anything French voters have been willing to countenance up until now. The race will be closer than anticipated.

S&P faces Catch-22 over South Africa downgrade

28 Nov 2016

The rating agency will soon decide whether the emerging economy's debt merits junk status. President Jacob Zuma's weakening of state institutions strengthens the case. Yet a downgrade could further undermine respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan - making the situation worse.

Castro embodied the weakness of strongmen

26 Nov 2016

The charismatic Cuban leader resembled other paternalistic caudillos of right and left in his outsized ego, which ultimately stymied his people. Cubans, like other Latin Americans, need institutions more than saviors like Fidel. Venezuela's leaders are another example.

Too soon for Spain to be a role model for others

25 Nov 2016

The country's deputy prime minister thinks others see the domestic economy as a case study for its rapid recovery. GDP has risen and Madrid deserves credit. But with growth likely to slow and unemployment and a big budget deficit both problems, there's no room for complacency.

Britain’s productivity fund is a long shot

24 Nov 2016

As in other Western countries, output per worker is growing less quickly than before the financial crisis. There is little agreement about the reasons for the slowdown, however. That means the UK government's new 23 billion pound productivity fund is throwing darts at a board.

Overdue market renovations bite UK estate agents

24 Nov 2016

Letting agents’ share prices plunged as the government said it might stop tenants from being billed directly for admin fees. Agents don’t have much chance of passing those costs on to landlords. Even if the government is micromanaging, the effect will be a more efficient market.

Brexit means UK is wise to defer budget handouts

23 Nov 2016

Leaving the European Union means lower growth and more borrowing. Dumping previous constraints enabled Chancellor Philip Hammond to invest a bit more in housing and research. Though he has wiggle room, Brexit negotiation uncertainty means there are grounds to hold back for now.

EU’s “Chapter 11” bankrupts Brexit assumptions

23 Nov 2016

Brussels wants to introduce protection for bust companies, similar to the U.S. model. British lawyers have tended to be dismissive of continental restructuring laws. If these changes go through, the UK may have to copy its neighbours to keep up. So much for sovereignty.

Hadas: Trump effects might reach to finance theory

22 Nov 2016

The next U.S. president may not be interested in the conceptual underpinnings of the risk-free rate of return. But his election could expose the idea's fundamental flaws. Financial risk is unavoidable and no asset is truly safe. Radical policies would make that painfully clear.

Britain’s brave new world hits post-Brexit reality

21 Nov 2016

Prime Minister Theresa May wants capitalism to work for the little guy. But in a speech to UK business she softened ideas like putting workers on boards, while promising low corporate taxes. Pressure to rein in the deficit and migration leaves less room for policy innovation.

French far right can make hay if Fillon shines

21 Nov 2016

Unabashed economic reformer Francois Fillon has a good chance of becoming the opposition centre-right's presidential candidate. His proposals risk alienating swathes of voters and give far-right leader Marine Le Pen a better chance of capitalising on her statist manifesto.

Merkel can win new term, but won’t finish it

20 Nov 2016

The German chancellor's decision to run for re-election in 2017 is a gesture of much-needed stability. Angela Merkel is likely to win despite the rise of the right-wing AfD party. After that, her best bet is to quit while she is ahead.

Trump’s four phases will guide next four years

18 Nov 2016

The reality-TV star is upending the global order in real time. As CEOs, world leaders and investors try to interpret what's in store, a new Breakingviews e-book chronicles Trump the businessman, candidate, populist and president-elect. Who he surrounds himself with is paramount.

Fake-news vortex envelops Corporate America

18 Nov 2016

Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg is no longer alone with the problem. In the days after the U.S. election, New Balance, Pepsi and Ford have been caught out by the spread of bogus information. Donald Trump's willingness to distort the truth creates a boardroom risk that is all too real.

Viewsroom: Should Facebook root out fake news?

17 Nov 2016

The social network is under fire for allowing erroneous and downright misleading media reports on its platform that may have swayed the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico prepare for a Donald Trump presidency. And Warren Buffett eats his words on airlines.

Guest view: Trump’s contempt clouds Supreme Court

17 Nov 2016

His list of possible successors to Antonin Scalia and other justices may reassure conservatives. Trump's temperament and seeming disregard for the rule of law, however, should worry both ends of the political spectrum, says Columbia Law School senior fellow Reynolds Holding.