Politics

Most of U.S. economic might keeps faith with Paris

2 Jun 2017

Cities and states representing 60 pct of the nation’s GDP have pledged to support the climate accord despite Donald Trump’s withdrawal. They have a big say over local energy policies. Their stance can sustain a shift to a low-carbon economy despite the president’s cold shoulder.

Hadas: Climate not real loser from Trump tantrum

2 Jun 2017

The decision to quit the Paris climate-change accord won’t have a big effect on either global warming or the fight against it. What is truly dangerous is the U.S. president’s frontal attack on the still underdeveloped system of global governance. A vigorous defence is now vital.

Top U.S. CEOs revolt against reality TV version

2 Jun 2017

Donald Trump’s rejection of the Paris climate pact drew swift opposition from corporate bosses, including those of GE and Goldman. The Tesla and Disney chiefs quit his advisory council. Losing business support this early bodes poorly for the administration’s economic promises.

Viewsroom: Donald Trump can’t melt Paris accord

1 Jun 2017

The president is pulling America out of the climate pact signed by 195 countries in 2015. But the continued commitment from cities, companies, investors and other states will limit the damage. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs steps into a Venezuelan mess. Plus: advertisers as activists.

Trump climate exit has bright silver lining

31 May 2017

U.S. support for anti-warming measures will be missed, if its withdrawal from the Paris accord is confirmed. But states, cities and businesses remain on board. And for nearly 200 other countries, including top polluter China, progress may be smoother free of D.C. foot-dragging.

Italian early election is least bad option

30 May 2017

Growing political backing for a voting law makes a 2017 election more likely. The new system may produce a weak coalition that would struggle to reform. But it would allow elections to be held before a tough budget stirs up anti-EU sentiment or ECB policy tightening hits growth.

Trump’s Paris accord call will be anticlimactic

26 May 2017

Even if the president pulls the U.S. out of the 2015 agreement, the impact should be limited. Cities, states, companies, investors and other countries will keep the anti-climate-warming momentum going. The bigger hit will be to America’s soft power and, potentially, its economy.

Jared Kushner conflicts hang on White House wall

26 May 2017

Donald Trump's son-in-law is under FBI scrutiny over Russian contacts. He and Ivanka Trump also didn't disclose their art collection. And the Kushner family used Jared's name to drum up Chinese business. The entanglements undercut his role in the administration, and its agenda.

UK Labour Party’s soft Brexit would still be hard

26 May 2017

The opposition is gaining in polls ahead of Britain’s June 8 vote. Leader Jeremy Corbyn is more pro-immigration than Tory Theresa May. Yet he is less pro-EU than he looks, and is less likely to be business-friendly – which could allow European negotiators to be tougher.

Review: A premature requiem for the liberal order

26 May 2017

Globalisation is in retreat and democracy under attack. Two new books foresee a gloomy future for the Western-led economic and political system. Yet just as some were too quick to proclaim its triumph in 1989, the obituaries sparked by Donald Trump’s election may prove too hasty.

Viewsroom: Trump budgets his way to la-la land

25 May 2017

Basic economics - and decency - fall by the wayside in the administration’s pitch that it can create $2 trln of revenue by cutting $3.6 trln of costs. OPEC and U.S. fields battle for oil supremacy. Zimbabwe invents the zollar. And Bill Ford escapes his CEO’s crash unscathed.

French telecoms merit a Macron premium

25 May 2017

The new president has indicated he might sell some of France’s corporate shareholdings. A 23 pct stake in telco Orange looks a logical selloff candidate, which could spark domestic market consolidation. That would give peers like Bouygues, SFR and Iliad a boost as well.

Post-election Merkel might change her spots

25 May 2017

Angela Merkel may have the option to pick the right-of-centre FDP as her new coalition partner in September, polls suggest. The FDP advocates low taxes, fiscal discipline and a euro zone without Greece. That could be an obstacle to euro reform, or a grand bargain with France.

Trump budget is schizophrenic on infrastructure

24 May 2017

This week's White House plan adds $200 bln of federal money over a decade. On the flipside, though, it slashes several existing infrastructure-related programs. There are some practical suggestions but, as in the overall budget, smoke and mirrors hamper any real analysis.

Sovereign downgrade will keep Beijing on its toes

24 May 2017

Moody’s has downgraded China for the first time since 1989, now ranking it below Taiwan. It is mostly symbolic as foreign debt ownership is minimal and local corporate ratings follow their own logic. But the public reprimand will check Beijing's ambition to attract funds onshore.

Brazil’s economy teeters at the abattoir gates

23 May 2017

Laws and sausages alike are famously messy to make. That Brazil's President Temer, a master of the dark legislative arts, may lose his job over meatpacker JBS's corruption charges is perhaps fitting. But pension reform still needs forcing through Congress, whoever's in charge.

Trump’s oil-reserve selloff plan is too hasty

23 May 2017

With U.S. crude imports decreasing, rethinking the size of the government's 688 mln barrel stockpile may make sense. But flattering the White House budget by $17 bln isn't a good reason for selling nearly half of it. Strategic and market factors should be the drivers.

Euro rally is on probation

23 May 2017

The single currency is at six-month highs above $1.12. The euro zone economy’s improving health is being acknowledged, and French political risk has diminished even as it has risen in the United States. Yet options prices show little conviction that the gains will continue.

Suicide bombing brings tragic twist to UK election

23 May 2017

The attack that killed at least 22 concertgoers in Manchester is Britain’s deadliest in more than a decade. Its aftermath will dominate the remaining two and a half weeks of campaigning. As in other European countries, economic issues will take a back seat to security concerns.

Only Russia can make OPEC great again

23 May 2017

Moscow is giving the cartel more pricing clout. A mooted deal to extend output cuts and drain global crude stockpiles can only succeed with the continued support of the world’s biggest crude producer. With U.S. drillers recovering, it may be time to make the alliance permanent.