Politics

India starts resembling China in unflattering ways

19 Dec 2024

Growth is slowing and allegations of interference in the West’s affairs are rising. Part of the narrative weighing on the world’s second-largest economy is applicable to its fifth largest. Even if similarities are exaggerated, the connection poses a threat to India’s moment.

Saudi’s sports M&A splurge will get smarter

18 Dec 2024

The kingdom has so far focused on mature markets like golf and men’s soccer, including spending $400 mln on English team Newcastle. Rugby and women’s soccer arguably have greater growth potential. Saudi will make the switch in 2025 and provide some much-needed investment.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.

Watchdogs finally detect scent of hedge-fund risk

18 Dec 2024

The Financial Stability Board proposed ideas including leverage caps that may affect Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Israel Englander’s Millennium. The new US administration will balk. Yet with hedge fund borrowing surging to $5 trln, it’s worth fleshing out rules ahead of any blowup.

Green energy will be a smart contrarian trade

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s dislike of offshore wind and threats to axe subsidies imply the renewable sector is one to swerve in 2025. Yet the US president-elect is primarily focused on keeping energy costs low. If permitting gets sped up, Big Tech-driven demand could help green power too.

Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance

16 Dec 2024

Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

AstraZeneca lacks good medicine for Chinese limbo

13 Dec 2024

Executives at the $205 bln drugmaker have been detained by Beijing, hitting its shares. One way for CEO Pascal Soriot to ringfence China risk from the rest of AstraZeneca might be to list or spin off the unit. Yet that might just highlight fresh reasons to mark down the stock.

French political stalemate threatens its economy

12 Dec 2024

The country is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. That will make it hard to cut the large budget deficit. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth.

Korea’s value push is getting a much-needed spark

11 Dec 2024

President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched coup adds urgency for Seoul to curb the power of family businesses. Even before the political crisis, the KOSPI was one of the world's worst performing major stock indices. That makes $22 bln Korea Zinc's upcoming shareholding meeting a key test.

Syrian regime change puts focus on Trump and Iran

9 Dec 2024

The overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad is the latest setback for his supporters in Tehran. President-elect Donald Trump had already pledged to get tougher on the Islamic Republic. Its weakness may embolden him further, with volatile results for the region and the oil price.

Putin faces hard choices if Ukraine war drags on

9 Dec 2024

Though Russia can probably keep fighting for a long time, the costs will mount – especially if inflation rises or the oil price falls. A credible Western plan to support Kyiv could bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and help secure a decent ceasefire.

Months of chaos will cripple France for years

6 Dec 2024

PM Michel Barnier’s budget was only the first step in a plan to stabilise public debt at 116% of GDP by 2028. His government’s collapse will make businesses and households even more reluctant to invest and spend, hitting growth. The country is headed for long-term economic pain.

Tariff turnabouts send US corporate heads spinning

5 Dec 2024

Donald Trump has threatened import levies ranging from 10% to 100% on Mexico, China, South Africa and everywhere in between. Based on recent earnings calls, CEOs see the president-elect’s gyrations as negotiating tactics. They’ll nevertheless be forced to prepare for the worst.

Drugmakers brace for US political side effects

5 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s health agency nominee, Robert Kennedy, brings dangerous views on vaccines as well as skepticism about sky-high medicine prices. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists discuss the impact on giants like Novo Nordisk and how other countries might react.

ECB approach to French storm can be a Gallic shrug

4 Dec 2024

The risk premium on France’s debt is at its highest since the 2012 euro zone crisis. Yet even if it worsens, the European Central Bank is unlikely to deploy knee-jerk rate cuts or bond-buying. It also has the tools to address spillover effects on other member states.

UK is now risky lab rat for rich tax-perk reform

4 Dec 2024

Thousands of Britain-based families look to have moved to the UAE. One key driver is the abolition of ‘non-dom’ rules that in 2022 shielded 37,800 residents’ offshore cash from tax. The UK may be right that the reform will raise revenue – but it’s on the hook if it doesn’t.

South Korea curveball adds new 2025 risks

4 Dec 2024

Fallout from Great Power tensions tends to dominate the minds of political and financial leaders. So the abortive coup in the $2 trln economy may seem just a domestic issue. But ructions within the major US ally and chipmaking hub may yet reverberate in Asia and beyond.

Macron’s options all spell trouble for French debt

3 Dec 2024

The country’s government may collapse, putting the ball in President Emmanuel Macron’s court. He can appoint another centrist prime minister, pick a leader sympathetic to the far right, or call a presidential vote. None of those moves shrink a budget deficit hitting 6% of GDP.

New Stellantis CEO’s first job is a US reset

2 Dec 2024

Carlos Tavares’ abrupt exit comes after the $34 bln carmaker hiked prices and lost market share. The ideal new CEO – able to steer a course around Trump, EU emissions rules and new tech – may not exist. Stellantis could settle for a US expert who can get car dealers back on side.