Politics

Gulf’s delicate US-China balance can easily flip

15 May 2025

Saudi and the UAE’s reliance on Silicon Valley’s talents and tech makes it easier to adhere to Washington's new Huawei chip curbs. But Beijing remains a big trading customer and is making headway in AI. The Gulf states may be in the West's camp, but they may not stay there.

Pauses, tweaks and can-kicking are new trade norms

15 May 2025

The US inked a deal with the UK and agreed to freeze triple-digit tariffs on China. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what these agreements reveal about the Trump administration’s negotiating hand, and what trade is likely to look like in the future.

UK pension private-market punt is acceptable risk

13 May 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is cajoling retirement funds to pour more money into domestic private equity, infrastructure and the like. The risk is higher losses, and a lack of the right sort of assets to invest in. Yet easing UK investors’ low-returns problem is a laudable aim.

Europe’s self-defence is battle on multiple fronts

13 May 2025

Leaders are scrambling to shore up defences against Russia while also becoming less dependent on the US. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Bruegel Senior Fellow Guntram Wolff talks about the need for a joint European body to make the increase in spending more effective.

Apple’s China detox is painful and overdue

13 May 2025

Geopolitics and trade wars have upended the iPhone maker's lucrative dependence on the People's Republic. As CEO Tim Cook seeks other supply chains, Beijing has reason to keep the giant onside. Spreading the $3 trillion company’s risks will be costly and time-consuming.

US-China truce cools down trade war, for now

12 May 2025

Traders bought stocks and the dollar after the duo removed triple-digit tariffs. Beijing deflected much of the threat to its growth and showed Donald Trump will back off when consequences bite. Uncertainty and damage to US credibility endure, but it’s a significant de-escalation.

Record backlogs signal defence industry fragility

9 May 2025

Shares in European weapons makers are soaring on hopes NATO countries will boost military spending to 3% of GDP. But a mushrooming order book highlights the difficulty firms like Rheinmetall may face in meeting demand. Governments will need to help the sector build more capacity.

US exceptionalism becoming a matter of perspective

8 May 2025

American stocks trounced the rest of the world for years, as Berkshire Hathaway’s outgoing CEO Warren Buffett likes to point out. But for foreigners, it was partly thanks to a surging dollar. If those days are over, Uncle Sam’s outperformance may only persist for US investors.

US-UK trade deal offers fuzzy blueprint for others

8 May 2025

Donald Trump waived tariffs on British steel and granted quotas on car imports in return for lower levies on American beef and other products. The modest first win for the president’s trade policy represents the lowest of low-hanging fruit. It only gets harder from here.

Trump mineral plan will create bigger problems

8 May 2025

The US wants to produce more minerals like rare earths and apply tariffs on Chinese imports. Hiking production in the $325 bln market makes sense but opening new mines will take decades. In the meantime, Washington will have to scramble for limited supplies from other countries.

India hands Global Britain another second-rate win

7 May 2025

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has inked a trade pact with New Delhi, a sign the UK can strike deals quickly outside the EU. Yet some terms look skewed to India’s benefit, and the economic gains are slight. Its main appeal is to show trade upheaval has not left Britain friendless.

Why US-China decoupling will be hard to reverse

6 May 2025

Trade between the two economies is collapsing. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Christopher Beddor of Gavekal explains where relations could be repaired, where they could deteriorate further, and why Washington and Beijing may tacitly agree on the need to pull apart.

Beijing’s firm yuan nudge can cool Asia FX rally

6 May 2025

The central bank is keeping its dollar trading band steady, suggesting President Xi won't throw exporters under the bus. Issues like de-dollarisation fears mean Asian currencies’ rise may not reverse. But China's approach can help anchor the region during Sino-US trade talks.

China’s economy sails into dense trade war fog

6 May 2025

Trump’s levies will blast $440 bln in direct exports to the US - 3% of GDP. But the full hit is probably worse, as many Chinese manufacturers have reconfigured supply chains and shipments to other markets that also face tariffs. That makes Beijing's growth goal a moving target.

Australia tops winners from anti-Trump elections

5 May 2025

The country joins Canada and Singapore in handing incumbent parties a strong mandate amid US global trade uncertainty. Anthony Albanese’s government faces less tariff pressure, however. He can use his mandate to push for change Down Under on everything from housing to climate.

Trump chaos offers funding win for Europe

2 May 2025

German bonds are now yielding less than before incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a 500 bln euro fiscal binge. One reason: the tariff war is driving money away from dollar assets in search of safer homes. That means cheaper borrowing costs for Merz, and Europe.

Gold’s golden moment dazzles better-value rivals

2 May 2025

The price of the yellow metal has soared 25% this year as investors fret about inflation and the future of the dollar. It has left metals like silver and platinum far behind. Though they lack gold’s strong brand, other commodities offer better long-term prospects for investors.

BBVA’s $15 bln deal is dicey despite antitrust OK

1 May 2025

Chair Carlos Torres Vila won trustbusters’ approval for his planned Sabadell merger after promising to keep branches open and other concessions. Yet Madrid can impose tougher conditions, and the target’s investors may reject the price. A higher offer looks necessary in any case.

US Bretton Woods stance is wiser, but still flawed

1 May 2025

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to work better. Some of his critique is fair, and advice is preferable to a US exit. But persuading other big countries to agree after upending the world with tariffs will now be much harder.

CK Hutchison deal is test of Chinese hospitality

1 May 2025

The Li clan is facing political hurdles as it tries to offload the docks business to BlackRock for $23 billion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why China objects, and why it might create bigger problems for inward investment.