Pharmaceuticals

Flu-remedy shortages sap investor misperceptions

21 Dec 2022

Drugmaker GSK spun off $35 bln Haleon in July with legal issues, high debt and low expectations, but strong demand for children’s Advil and other medicines are providing a salve. Similar splits in media, oil and tech have defied the odds, too. Contrarian bets can be therapeutic.

Big Pharma will find right formula for M&A binge

20 Dec 2022

Pfizer, AstraZeneca and peers have nearly half a trillion dollars of firepower to deploy on deals in 2023. Looming loss of exclusivity on key drugs gives them little choice. Luckily targets like Ascendis or Incyte are trading on depressed valuations, and less likely to resist.

Takeda’s bold skin care deal shows fresh M&A itch

14 Dec 2022

The Japanese pharma giant is paying at least $4 bln for a psoriasis treatment still in trial, its biggest transaction since splashing out $62 bln on Shire in 2019. There’s a risk the drug fails, but Takeda has cash and needs new money spinners. More deals may follow.

Amgen’s $28 bln deal is a reasonable gamble

12 Dec 2022

The $150 bln biotech company is buying smaller peer Horizon after the target’s big drug suddenly stalled. Horizon’s shares look expensive if growth remains derailed. But there’s a good chance, based on past deals, it will resume. If so, Amgen looks calculated and opportunistic.

Sinopharm’s second Chinese herb shot is potent

8 Dec 2022

The pharma giant may revive a $4 bln buyout of its Hong Kong-listed traditional medicine arm. Valuations for rivals on the mainland have risen in the two years since the last try. A growing disconnect between the markets allows for a bigger premium and a lucrative relisting.

Big Pharma’s heartburn win is a valuation salve

7 Dec 2022

GSK, Haleon and Sanofi’s combined worth rose $14 bln after a U.S. judge dismissed claims that a drug causes cancer. It frees up cash for new research and deals. The victory also helps lay to rest the ghost of Bayer’s Roundup legal thwack, which has haunted the sector since 2020.

Big Pharma will muscle in on obesity gold rush

28 Nov 2022

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s weight loss drugs are swelling their valuations, and give them a lead in a potentially $50 bln market. Yet rivals like Pfizer are not far behind, and others can snap up biotechs like Altimmune. An increasingly crowded sector may lead to lower returns.

Capital Calls: Roche’s risky big drug bets

14 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: Shares in the Swiss drugmaker fell 4% after a treatment for dementia produced disappointing results in a late-stage trial, reminding investors of the downsides of pursuing potential blockbusters.

Pfizer’s heft smacks Moderna’s one-hit wonder

3 Nov 2022

Moderna warned of manufacturing woes this year and a move to a more cut-throat commercial market. Its production of the Covid vaccine is increasingly competing against Pfizer’s strengths. Regaining its gloss means success in developing new vaccines.

J&J’s heart deal pumps up post-breakup prospects

1 Nov 2022

The healthcare firm will get a measly return in the near term from paying $16.6 bln for heart-pump maker Abiomed. But J&J is buying growth: Abiomed’s 20% revenue growth can probably continue for several years. That provides ballast as J&J prepares to spin off its consumer arm.

Capital Calls: Anti-woke ETF’s progressive cause

11 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: The God Bless America fund seeks to be an antidote to BlackRock and other big asset managers that focus on environmental, social and governance principles. Yet one investing principle aligns with more enlightened values.

Biogen’s $11 bln Alzheimer’s gain has cushion

28 Sep 2022

The U.S. biotech firm has developed a drug that may slow dementia, sending Biogen shares surging 40%. The assumptions it takes to validate the gain don’t seem crazy. Decades of failure to find a cure explain why investors are gun-shy. That may mean opportunity for the bold.

Capital Calls: Novartis

22 Sep 2022

Concise views on global finance: The Swiss drugmaker hopes to fix its growth problem by listing its generic drug business and focusing on the U.S. market.

U.S. drug price cap hurts Big Pharma twice over

15 Sep 2022

President Biden’s plan to curb medicine bills could cost drugmakers like Pfizer or GSK $29 bln a year in lost sales. To cope, companies may focus on blockbuster therapies, and shun niche treatments. More competition in hot areas like cancer may mean lower prices and poor returns.

Little pharma gets big boost from drug regulators

8 Sep 2022

A drug that treats a fast-killing neurological disease received a green light from an FDA panel instead of waiting for further trial results. That lifted shares of the maker, Amylyx, 60%. The unusual decision can be justified in this case. But such fast-tracking should be rare.

AstraZeneca’s Soriot on cures for pharma ills

30 Aug 2022

The $208 bln drugmaker’s CEO is celebrating 10 years at the helm. In this edition of the Exchange podcast, he explains why after quadrupling the company’s share price, there is more to do. He also delves into Chinese competition and the consequences of caps on U.S. drug prices.

Moderna patent fight about feathers, not goose

29 Aug 2022

The $53 bln biotech firm says Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine uses its intellectual property. The drug may bring in $30 bln this year, so it’s potentially a giant suit. Moderna’s direct claim is probably tiny. But mRNA technology is its lifeblood and worth fighting to protect.

Big Pharma should brace for worst cancer outcome

18 Aug 2022

Investors have wiped $36 bln off Sanofi, GSK and its consumer spinoff on fears heartburn remedies cause cancer. The science implies an overreaction. But the scope for U.S. juries to see the saga as akin to Bayer’s Roundup weedkiller debacle could actually make the hit bigger.

Pfizer and Moderna react well to cash boosters

12 Aug 2022

The Covid-19 vaccine makers combined may generate an extra $110 bln through 2024. With its bounty, younger Moderna would be wise to double down on R&D. Mature Pfizer is better off pursuing acquisitions like Global Blood Therapeutics. The trick for both will be to stay focused.

Cancer scare leaves GSK castoff adrift

11 Aug 2022

Shares in Haleon have fallen by nearly a fifth on fears of litigation linked to a heartburn drug. It’s another worry for the $28 bln business which GSK spun off after loading it up with debt, amid recession fears. The uncertainty means investors can’t even hope for a takeover.