Pharmaceuticals

Vaccine makers exposed to political pathogen

7 Nov 2024

President-elect Donald Trump wants Robert Kennedy to ‘run wild’ on public health policy. Details, as usual, are sketchy, and it may be hard to put the anti-jab activist in an official administration role. Even with him as a senior adviser, though, Moderna and GSK lack immunity.

Lilly’s weight loss let-down is all about timing

30 Oct 2024

The obesity drug maker shed $50 bln of market value after sales disappointed the assumption that rising supply would meet endless demand. It may be a blip due to slow marketing. But a valuation triple industry norms leaves Eli Lilly no room to fumble its window to extract value.

Sanofi sale is critical health check for mega LBOs

10 Oct 2024

The French pharma company is deciding whether to sell its consumer drugs unit to Clayton Dubilier & Rice or PAI for $17 bln, says Bloomberg. It helps that volatile equity markets make an alternative listing riskier. A successful deal could give large buyouts a shot in the arm.

Pfizer’s M&A disease brings activist cure

7 Oct 2024

The pharma giant generated over $30 bln of extra cash during the pandemic, then spent over twice as much on questionable deals. With shareholders sitting on a loss under CEO Albert Bourla, Starboard will push for a return to former CEO Ian Read’s parsimony.

CVS surgery would provide little if any relief

1 Oct 2024

As part of a strategic shakeup, the healthcare supermarket may try amputation. A $90 bln acquisition binge has left it indebted and worth less than $80 bln. The breakup math is flimsy, meaning the prescription for boss Karen Lynch is to stop buying and nurse the existing parts.

Copycat drugmakers will be low-key obesity winners

25 Sep 2024

Sandoz and other generic drugmakers are preparing to make cheap versions of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drugs. They could grab a large chunk of a potentially $150 bln market. Unlike the Danish group and peer Eli Lilly, their valuations do not yet reflect the potential opportunity.

Big Pharma lacks motive to prep for new pandemics

10 Sep 2024

The WHO warned the next outbreak may be 20 times more deadly than Covid-19. Moderna’s Corona surge should encourage drugmakers to build up vaccine units for the next virus. But with investors giving little credit for one-off jabs, there’s not much incentive to invest.

Mpox drugmaker’s shares may provide false comfort

16 Aug 2024

Bavarian Nordic, which makes a vaccine for the virus, gained $1 bln in value over the past week as the disease spread beyond Africa. The increase is equivalent to several million extra doses. That view, which implies a contained outbreak, may be too benign if mpox keeps mutating.

L’Oréal’s tardy skin care facelift may backfire

5 Aug 2024

After sitting out its IPO, the cosmetics giant is buying 10% of $19 bln dermatology specialist Galderma, which it sold in 2014. The Swiss firm’s fast-growing injectable business is attractive. Yet the move risks making a potential full takeover overly expensive.

Novo Nordisk obesity feast no longer a free lunch

18 Jul 2024

The $603 bln drug group’s shares have more than trebled since 2021 on the back of booming sales of weight-loss treatment Wegovy. To justify that, it will need to keep coming up with new, even better products, and fend off rivals like Pfizer. Neither looks certain.

Drugmaker’s US listing journey starts with failure

9 Jul 2024

Shares in $2 bln Indivior, which in June switched its primary venue from London to New York, fell 42% after flagging slower opioid-treatment sales. Investors may fear that CEO Mark Crossley took his eye off the ball. With little broker coverage, it risks becoming an orphan stock.

Smith & Nephew faces long and painful activist fix

4 Jul 2024

Cevian has taken a 5% stake in the $11 bln underperforming London-listed medical equipment maker. Curing its depressed share price will require deep operational surgery. While that may take time, a breakup could be a second treatment further down the line.

Moderna stock is lone omen of bird flu pandemic

17 Jun 2024

The $56 bln Covid vaccine maker’s stock is up 40% since March after an avian flu outbreak. A new jab might be worth trillions for society. The uncertainty about another pestilence, however, means its value to Moderna is probably less than what investors have already gained.

New Pharma will crowd out Big Pharma

11 Jun 2024

For decades the likes of Pfizer have ruled the industry, gobbling up tech-driven players. But former upstarts are no longer bite-sized, as Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ $125 bln market cap proves. Their new strength will create more M&A competition and undermine established leaders.

Investors prescribe harsh medicine for GSK’s boss

3 Jun 2024

Shareholders wiped $9 bln off the UK drugmaker’s market value after a US judge approved lawsuits over heartburn drug Zantac. It may be an overreaction given the company’s win in another state and previous settlements. But it adds pressure on CEO Emma Walmsley’s turnaround plan.

AI will help treat Big Pharma’s looming illness

15 May 2024

Drug discovery is a long and costly process with success rates below 10%. Caps on prices and shorter patent periods in the US will also make life harder for the likes of Pfizer, AstraZeneca and rivals. Despite patchy results, betting on machines may be the best hope of a cure.

Anti-obesity drugmakers savor pandemic leftovers

1 May 2024

The main obstacle to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk selling more weight-loss treatments is the ability to produce them. It turns out Covid-vaccine infrastructure has useful capacity. Quickly solving supply concerns gives both a shot at bigger slugs of the potential $100 bln market.

Vote no to bashing proxy advisers

25 Apr 2024

Corporate leaders at JPMorgan and AstraZeneca bridle when ISS and Glass Lewis criticize their governance. No wonder: Some high-stakes shareholder votes this year will be uncomfortable for feather-bedded bosses. Proxy firms are problematic, but they do more good than harm.

Blackstone cures two ailments in one Moderna shot

27 Mar 2024

Higher costs of capital are pressuring CEOs into tough spending decisions, while buyout shops flush with cash want to deploy it. This dynamic makes a $750 mln deal to fund a biotech project a crafty solution. The hard end of the bargain: ceding value from promising flu research.

Capital Calls: Wegovy gets a booster

22 Mar 2024

Concise views on global finance: The US government’s decision to pay for weight-loss drugs for some older patients is a big step for makers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Not because it will boost their share prices, but because it makes current valuations less far-fetched.