Oil & Gas

Backlogged M&A pipeline will burst in 2024

19 Dec 2023

Even normally chipper bankers are wary as merger activity heads for a second straight drop from its $5.7 trln peak in 2021. And yet stabilizing capital costs, bulging cash reserves and adjusting valuation mindsets should help spark enough pressure to ignite a deals resurgence.

Global energy fissures are a risk for the West

12 Dec 2023

Falling oil prices despite recent cuts imply a weak OPEC+. Yet the producer group may increasingly align with other emerging market states on areas like Russia and climate change. In this Exchange podcast commodities expert Helima Croft says that’s an issue for Europe and the US.

Occidental ratchets up race to tame the shale boom

11 Dec 2023

The oil giant’s $12 bln CrownRock deal further consolidates the Permian, where rich finds have helped increase US oil production by a fifth since 2020. A focus on returns will restrain growth in the driller’s output. As more buyers crowd in, the shale explosion will be tempered.

COP28 oil-fest still has a path to credibility

8 Dec 2023

Unlike Glasgow’s COP26, Dubai’s version of the global climate meet has involved polluters like Exxon Mobil. COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s dual role as an oil boss has also come under intense scrutiny. Yet his renewables goals also imply global crude output may soon wane.

COP28 wrestles with the nuances of binning oil

7 Dec 2023

The global climate conference in Dubai has seen its fossil fuel-rich UAE host criticised for appearing to contest the need to phase out crude. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how the picture is a bit more complex.

OPEC+ is a weird club for Brazil to want to join

30 Nov 2023

Latin America’s largest economy is mulling joining the 23-strong oil producer group. But OPEC+’s latest 2 mln barrels of daily cuts are not needed to balance the market, will rile the US at a sensitive time, and may increase internal strife. It seems more like a club to leave.

ADNOC German oil deal has bad timing, good logic

28 Nov 2023

Abu Dhabi’s energy giant may bid for BASF-owned Wintershall, in a deal worth $11 bln. As the UAE prepares to host the COP28 climate shindig, that’s a bad look. But buying the German group’s pipeline network may suit ADNOC’s wider aim to bulk up in European petrochemicals.

Shell’s shrinking green pledge risks backfiring

2 Nov 2023

The $217 bln oil major has upped by 40% a quarterly buyback plan while curbing unprofitable low-carbon activities. CEO Wael Sawan’s focus on fossil fuels has shielded him from the troubles ensnaring BP and Orsted. The strategy can work only if volatile energy prices stay high.

Sluggish BP earnings exacerbate its green dilemma

31 Oct 2023

The $105 bln UK giant missed quarterly net profit forecasts by 20% after weak gas results and a big wind writedown. That casts doubts on its clean energy division’s profitability while adding pressure to up its oil and gas game. Tackling both challenges requires creativity.

US oil deals create big fish in vast ocean

30 Oct 2023

Exxon’s $60 bln deal for Pioneer and Chevron’s $53 bln Hess offer will make the giants even bigger. But they will only have 12% of US petroleum production and 5% of global share. Success depends on higher commodity prices. Big Oil may not control as much as it wants.

Capital Calls: Big Oil, Intel

27 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: Exxon returned $8 bln of cash to investors in the quarter, while Chevron returned some $6 bln. With investment rising and M&A on the table, investors are competing with new priorities; Intel shares jumped 10% after slowing declines in revenue.

Qatar can weather latest foreign stress test

27 Oct 2023

The Gulf emirate is under scrutiny for its links to Hamas, six years after a blockade by neighbours. One risk is that its $450 bln sovereign wealth fund gets a frostier reception. But Doha’s giant gas reserves and its role as mediator and US ally should protect its clout.

Real big energy: Exxon and Chevron swim upstream

26 Oct 2023

The two US oil titans unveiled acquisitions worth more than $100 bln combined within weeks of each other. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what’s powering the renewed consolidation push, as well as the threats posed to the industry by a greener market.

Europe’s oil majors are stuck as M&A party-poopers

26 Oct 2023

Exxon Mobil and Chevron’s respective decisions to double down on oil have put European peers Shell, BP and Total on the spot. Yet their lower valuations complicate share deals. The most obvious big targets for lower-carbon M&A are invitingly cheap, but look hard to get at.

Hess deal would be higher-octane with cash added

25 Oct 2023

The takeover target’s rich valuation grants it a chunky stake in an enlarged Chevron. But the $53 bln merger now offers no premium and only shares in an underperforming acquiror. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth may have to bid against himself by throwing in a sweetener with hard currency.

Chevron’s $53 billion deal is risky Exxon copycat

23 Oct 2023

The all-stock offer for Hess is more speculative than rival Exxon’s massive plunge in Texas shale. It also makes Chevron look more like its US rival: Exxon already owns a piece of prolific Guyana fields with Hess. The long-term bet could work, but for CEO Mike Wirth, it’s dicey.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

Israel’s fossil fuel boon becomes less clear-cut

19 Oct 2023

The country’s rapidly rising gas exports were billed as a way to replace 10% of the Russian supplies lost by Europe. UAE oil giant ADNOC has also bid to buy local fossil fuel assets amid improving relations with the Gulf state. Israel’s war with Hamas complicates both objectives.

Saudi is wild card in Middle East’s new turmoil

18 Oct 2023

War in Israel complicates Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s modernisation push. He must consider the oil market, rivalry with Iran, overseas investment, and the views of 32 mln citizens. How the Gulf’s biggest economy proceeds has big implications for the region – and the world.

Exxon’s last mega-deal casts shadow on latest one

11 Oct 2023

The $60 bln acquisition of Pioneer will be the energy giant’s biggest since it bought XTO for $31 bln. It overpaid for expertise and acreage in 2009 near a peak in gas prices. Fracking experience gives boss Darren Woods an edge now. The timing may be equally bad, however.