Oil & Gas

Like Rome, oil demand won’t be destroyed in a day

18 Mar 2024

Oil producers attending the big industry confab in Houston this week recognize they are under pressure. US firms are merging; Saudi is reinventing itself. Like in any dwindling empire, many leaders will want to take over rivals. Rewarding investors with cash is a better strategy.

Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin

18 Mar 2024

To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.

A $35 bln gas reunion tracks a topsy-turvy market

11 Mar 2024

Gas producer EQT spun off its midstream unit in 2018 to sate activists. The argument was that pipelines return cash while gas firms spend it. But that’s no longer true and the operational logic was thin. Striking amid low gas prices invites scrutiny, but recombining makes sense.

Exxon juggles stick of dynamite near Hess deal

27 Feb 2024

The oil giant and Chinese partner CNOOC say Chevron’s $53 bln acquisition of Hess gives them the right to buy the latter’s crown jewel stake in a Guyana oil field. While that threatens to blow up Chevron’s plan, an Exxon purchase also could saddle it with a risky time-bomb.

Strategic clarity fuels US oil giants’ M&A spree

23 Feb 2024

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are buying up rival drillers on expectations that demand for crude will still be robust in 2050. European rivals like Shell are less bullish about oil, but reluctant to pile headlong into green energy. That helps explain the transatlantic valuation gap.

Capital Calls: Oil M&A

22 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The $11 billion Williston Basin combination of Chord Energy and Enerplus lacks the wow factor of Exxon’s and Chevron’s mega-mergers, but there are sufficient savings to suggest more deals will be on the way.

Shale twins’ $26 bln deal can afford to be pricey

12 Feb 2024

Permian producer Diamondback is buying a smaller version of itself in Endeavor, from overlapping acreage to neighboring offices. That implies the price is maybe $1 bln over the odds. Given unique savings the duo can reap in the heart of the US oil boom, the buyer can afford it.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

Woodside torches Santos’ quick activist fix

7 Feb 2024

The oil and gas driller ended talks with its smaller rival about a $52 bln merger Down Under. A deal always looked hard. But it could have got investors off Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher’s back. Now he’ll have to try the slower route of capital returns, cost cuts and asset sales.

Exxon has a chemical escape hatch

2 Feb 2024

The oil giant earned $36 bln last year thanks to high crude prices, but the future looks dim for fuel demand. The company’s petrochemical business, though, is in the opposite position: Excess supply has driven down prices, but growing demand for plastics promises riches to come.

Abu Dhabi’s Europe M&A hedges an opaque future

26 Jan 2024

The UAE’s key oil group is readying $40 bln of European petrochemicals deals. Some Western rivals are doubling down on the black stuff. ADNOC’s plan – buying up the value chain of an area where crude demand may persist – is a partial hedge against cratered oil usage in 2050.

Exxon activists banished best with vote, not court

22 Jan 2024

The $385 bln oil giant wants a judge to stop a shareholder proposal urging stringent emissions limits from going to a vote. Similar measures failed before. Fighting rather than letting this one fall flat amplifies dissent and echoes past doomed dismissals of investor concerns.

Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat

22 Jan 2024

Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.

Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble

18 Jan 2024

Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.

BP’s business-as-usual vibe can only go so far

17 Jan 2024

The UK oil major has appointed Murray Auchincloss to the top job. While the ex-CFO seems to want to stick with BP’s current strategy, that might not help its valuation discount. Ways that conceivably could – like spinning off his transition assets – are worth his consideration.

Chesapeake $7.4 bln deal finds safety in numbers

11 Jan 2024

The gas company’s bid for Southwestern looks investor-friendly, with a low premium, cost savings and the prospect of cash payouts. Amid a wider energy M&A rush, boss Nick Dell’Osso can also take comfort from being neither the first nor surely the last to take an acquisitive leap.

Shell will be tempted to join US M&A party

5 Jan 2024

With rivals Exxon Mobil and Chevron doing chunky deals, the $214 bln European oil major may wish to follow suit. A pitch for $30 bln Permian player Endeavor is affordable and arguably logical. But it would test how far CEO Wael Sawan can realistically pivot back to fossil fuels.

Wintershall saga reaches logical $11 bln endgame

21 Dec 2023

After flirting with a listing and rival suitors, the BASF-owned German oil group is to merge with $3 bln Harbour Energy. The UK-listed buyer gets a relatively cheap way to bulk up in gas assets. The sellers get to stick around for the ride, courtesy of some funky financing.

Capital Calls: Angola and OPEC

21 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The African state’s decision to quit the oil producer group isn’t a huge deal in the short term, but will raise fears of more meaningful exits.

BP and Equinor will find common ground

20 Dec 2023

The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.