Oil & Gas

Oil’s new slump cuts across OPEC’s plan A

4 Sep 2024

Crude prices are off sharply, partly due to weak economic data and partly because a potential Libyan supply crisis appears to have been resolved. Yet OPEC plans to hike output in October. The producer group may have to choose between aggravating the selloff and its own unity.

Saudi fund’s prudence pivot is only half complete

20 Aug 2024

The $925 bln Public Investment Fund is spending more money locally. That should do more to help Saudi’s diversification push than past international forays. But the domestic projects are often speculative, implying low returns and a continued shortage of foreign co-investors.

Iran danger marks return of oil’s risk premium

13 Aug 2024

Conflict in Gaza and tit-for-tat attacks in the Middle East have desensitised markets to possible supply shocks. A US warning of imminent retaliation against Israel changes that. Despite weaker demand, oil prices reflect the dangers of infrastructure and tankers becoming targets.

Woodside’s deal poses a new green conundrum

13 Aug 2024

Months after shareholders rejected its climate transition plan, the oil driller is buying an ammonia facility in Texas for $2.4 bln to help hit its emissions reduction goals. But the tech and end-uses are questionable. The return gives investors little to cheer, too.

Exxon’s dominance may not be good for Exxon

2 Aug 2024

The oil giant’s quarterly results show why its shares have outperformed Chevron's. Its $60 bln acquisition of Pioneer is reaping more savings, while production in the giant Permian and Guyana fields hit records. Exxon’s power is growing, but it could use friends here and abroad.

Shell-BP fantasy M&A has some grounding in reality

1 Aug 2024

Merging the two big UK oil groups is an idea that’s decades old. Shell boss Wael Sawan has minimal need or inclination to take the plunge. But $97 bln BP’s cheap valuation and potential synergies mean his hand might be forced if a rival lobbed in a bid, or if oil prices slumped.

Oil is an imperfect gauge of Middle East risk

31 Jul 2024

Brent crude prices rose 2.5% after senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders died in strikes blamed on Israel. Oil traders have grounds to see the danger of a wider war as limited, but automated trading may increasingly act to muffle any concerns. It’s hard to tell which is right.

KKR-Eni biofuels deal is rich bet on governments

23 Jul 2024

The US investor could pay up to $14 bln for 25% of the Italian group’s bioenergy arm. That’s a big premium to listed peers, at a time when greener fuels made from crops are less favoured. Long-term growth rates mean it makes sense, but only if states keep assisting the market.

Middle East reignites Santos’ M&A pipe dreams

4 Jul 2024

Shares of the $17 bln Aussie driller jumped on a Bloomberg report that Aramco and ADNOC are each studying bids. That may yet lure in BP, Chevron and others. But the return on investment remains as ho-hum as when Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher opened the door to a deal last year.

Moscow’s war yields a new type of Russian oligarch

5 Jun 2024

Vladimir Putin has long tamed his country’s 1990s-era billionaires, and a later cadre of ex-KGB moguls. Now the Russian president has picked a third generation of businessmen to own and manage confiscated Western assets. They won’t be any less subservient to his whims.

Aramco’s $12 bln share sale is borne of necessity

31 May 2024

Saudi Arabia is selling an extra 0.6% slice of the $1.9 trln oil giant. Riyadh needs cash because budget concerns have delayed projects to diversify its economy. The company’s low valuation versus global rivals makes the timing suboptimal. At least buyers get an attractive yield.

Exxon’s Darren Woods gets a Biden-era dividend

30 May 2024

The oil giant’s CEO just closed a merger with Pioneer, and slapped down a slew of ESG-related shareholder proposals. Exxon’s market value of $510 bln now nearly matches Tesla’s. All this under – and in some cases thanks to – a US president who vowed to fight climate change.

Conoco’s Marathon deal is cheap and cheerful

29 May 2024

As rivals like Chevron buy premium assets at high prices, the $139 bln Conoco is bagging OK assets at a reasonable $23 bln. The return on investment of 10% is attractive, though. And it leaves the oil sector positioned for future consolidation – maybe with Conoco as a target.

Chevron has chance to save doubtful Hess deal

17 May 2024

If Hess shareholders are sensible they will vote down Chevron’s uncompelling $51 bln offer. The premium is small and closure is uncertain. Besides, Hess’s offshore crown jewel in Guyana may be gaining in value. Chevron has a brief opportunity to up its game.

Wood Group is parable for takeover-wary UK boards

16 May 2024

Shares in the energy-services group have languished since Apollo ditched a $2 bln proposed bid last year. The board is struggling to get a new suitor to match the old price. With UK firms facing record takeover interest, it’s a reminder that cash premiums are often hard to beat.

Oil groups’ AGM rebels may lose even if they win

13 May 2024

Shell’s annual shareholder meeting will be a showdown between CEO Wael Sawan’s climate strategy and an activist group’s emission reduction proposal. Investors are unlikely to turn against the UK oil major. But the results may be disappointing even if they do force change.

Total’s US re-listing idea could backfire

8 May 2024

The $170 bln oil major is considering decamping to the United States to court oil-friendly investors. Yet getting included in the big stock index would mean cutting French roots, and a valuation boost looks unlikely. Staying at home may also be better for its growing power unit.

Trustbusters target poor man’s John D. Rockefeller

2 May 2024

Today’s energy producers wield far less clout than the industrialist’s Standard Oil, whose breakup shaped US competition law. By comparison, the FTC’s collusion case against Pioneer’s ex-CEO linked to the $65 bln Exxon deal is mostly symbolic. Robber barons lurk elsewhere now.

Exxon and gas markets tell different stories

26 Apr 2024

CEO Darren Woods denies fossil fuels are in decline, thanks to growing populations and rising petrochemicals demand. Yet a glut of natural gas – which reined in quarterly profit at Exxon and rival Chevron – is a real problem, and one that could weigh on prices for a long time.

Spain’s utility saga calls for tough balancing act

18 Apr 2024

The UAE wants to buy 40% of 22 bln euro Naturgy from its private equity owners. That would usually require a full takeover, but Madrid has form on protecting key infrastructure. Spain will have to balance its desire to retain control with the need not to scare its bidder away.