Oil & Gas

Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance

16 Dec 2024

Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.

India tightens its crude bear hug of Russia

12 Dec 2024

Reliance is set to buy Rosneft oil worth $13 bln a year for a decade in the biggest energy deal between the countries. It helps New Delhi cut its current account gap and buy goodwill ahead of Vladimir Putin’s visit. But Moscow’s struggle to manage a flood of rupees may intensify.

Syrian regime change puts focus on Trump and Iran

9 Dec 2024

The overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad is the latest setback for his supporters in Tehran. President-elect Donald Trump had already pledged to get tougher on the Islamic Republic. Its weakness may embolden him further, with volatile results for the region and the oil price.

Shell and Equinor make the best of UK oil decline

5 Dec 2024

The oil majors are combining their North Sea assets in a joint venture. Splicing the two together makes sense as it will allow them to share Equinor’s 6 bln pound tax losses and protect against rising windfall taxes. It could also pave the way for an easier future exit.

Oil’s geopolitical risk premium is still there

27 Nov 2024

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have struck a peace deal brokered by the US and France. In theory, a calmer Middle East plus weaker demand forecasts should prompt a tangible slide in the price of crude. But a tougher US policy on Iran merits an ongoing risk premium.

Adani’s US woes put TotalEnergies on the spot

22 Nov 2024

The $137 bln French group has 20% of Adani Green Energy. Gautam Adani’s US bribery charges present a different challenge to those faced by TotalEnergies in Iran in 2018. But they complicate CEO Patrick Pouyanné’s plans to expand in a key growth market.

Russian gas to Europe is on the slow road to zero

22 Nov 2024

The slim possibility of a Trump-brokered end to Moscow’s war with Ukraine raises the question of whether the European Union would ever buy more of its fossil fuels. Yet EU reliance on Russian pipeline gas is set to fall further. Moreover, Europe doesn’t need it.

US oil spigot bypasses the White House

19 Nov 2024

President Trump promises to 'drill, baby, drill'. Yet the correlation between US oil production and the occupant of the Oval Office appears close to zero. With investors demanding dividends, consumption flat, and the world oversupplied, wishes for new wells may go unfulfilled.

Shell’s legal win flags need for new green metrics

12 Nov 2024

A Dutch court has nixed a 2021 ruling forcing the $204 bln oil major to cut emissions by 45% by 2030. Such metrics had already been undermined by Big Oil asset sales, which don’t stop climate change. Drillers’ spending on low-carbon energy is a better gauge of green credentials.

Wood Group saga is a masterclass in M&A self-harm

8 Nov 2024

Shares in the energy-services group were already miles below where suitors Apollo and Sidara had offered to buy. Now they’ve halved after Wood Group garbled a message about future losses. The likely upshot is shareholders accept a third offer – even lower than the first two.

Saudi megafund’s success rests on fuzzy local bets

5 Nov 2024

The kingdom’s $950 bln Public Investment Fund is best known for outlandish construction schemes and flashy foreign forays. But its biggest and fastest-growing division houses young domestic firms. While some may thrive, it’s less clear they can guarantee the vital pivot from oil.

Oil glut renders industry’s appeal purely relative

1 Nov 2024

A record 5 mln bpd of spare OPEC+ capacity helps explain lower profit at Exxon, Chevron and Conoco. The titan run by Darren Woods has positioned itself better to handle the surfeit. Nevertheless, the next decade of returns from US crude producers will be even worse than the last.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

BP may have to become even less investor friendly

29 Oct 2024

The $83 bln UK major is facing a strained balance sheet, low oil prices and trouble in its renewables unit. CEO Murray Auchincloss’s plan to return cash will hinge on tricky asset sales. Cutting buybacks would be better but would make the stock even less appealing than its peers.

Many roadblocks delay journey to zero carbon world

28 Oct 2024

While solar power and battery supply have grown massively, the same is not true of electricity grids, green hydrogen and carbon removal. Money is more expensive. This means demand for oil, gas and coal has not yet peaked. The setback will cost the planet dearly.

Equinor’s Orsted bet is cheap route to green goals

7 Oct 2024

The Norwegian driller has bought about 10% of the $26 bln Danish green energy group. Oil groups are more bullish about crude, but still have renewable energy capacity targets. Orsted’s recent strife offers a cheaper way for Equinor to get there than building the kit itself.

Middle East turmoil edges closer to global economy

3 Oct 2024

Military escalation between Iran and Israel may at some point affect the price of oil. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how the conflict may prompt a fresh inflationary headache for central banks – and how Saudi Arabia might offset that risk.

Gulf turmoil will leave ratesetters on edge

2 Oct 2024

Israel’s riposte to Iran’s missile strike may see oil prices spike. The Fed, the ECB and peers struggled to contain inflation in 2022. A new energy crisis, along with a US docker strike, would force central banks to rethink rate cuts just as markets price them in.

ADNOC German deal is blueprint for Gulf takeovers

1 Oct 2024

The UAE energy giant agreed to buy chemicals group Covestro for $16 bln including debt. It’s paying a big premium, retaining management and injecting extra capital. The terms are a sign of the hoops Middle Eastern buyers must jump through to get hold of sensitive European assets.

Saudi oil may keep a lid on Middle East fallout

30 Sep 2024

Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s leader invites a response from its backer Iran, which could cause crude prices to spike. Yet Riyadh may also soon start pumping a lot more oil. That could prolong the extent to which the economic impact of seismic Middle East events stays regional.