Money‚ Politics

Joe Biden displays power and risks of incumbency

21 Jul 2024

The US president will not run for re-election, a momentous decision that may have come too late to mitigate damage to his party. Unlike corporate leaders, a sitting commander-in-chief is almost impossible to dislodge. Biden’s replacement will face Donald Trump without that grip.

Silicon Valley daredevils ride or die with Trump

17 Jul 2024

Marc Andreessen, Elon Musk and other tech entrepreneurs are lining up behind the former US president. Maybe there’s ideological alignment, but naked self-interest and contrarian biases probably play a part, too. The downside in politics, however, is far bigger than in business.

Trump VP pick plays on a message of decline

15 Jul 2024

The Republican candidate's new running mate JD Vance solidifies an agenda of trade and immigration restrictions pitched to struggling workers. Vance’s story of upward mobility appeals to the blueprint, and a grim truth: for working-age men, it’s harder to climb the ladder.

Wall Street places reluctant bet on Trump

11 Jul 2024

Financial folk prefer Republicans over Democrats when it comes to political donations. They dislike President Joe Biden’s regulatory drive. But Donald Trump’s return could roil markets, widen divisions and expand deficits. No wonder some would prefer one of their own in the race.

China’s Third Plenum will jolt the economy, again

28 Jun 2024

Xi Jinping has a chance to lay out his answer to major issues including weak consumption at July’s five-yearly huddle of top officials. Previous meetings set the tone for the country. This one is much delayed and will determine China’s interest in making itself “investible”.

China has an incentive to keep road to Europe open

26 Jun 2024

Beijing agreed to start talks with the EU on the bloc's planned tariffs on China-made EVs. Carmakers can survive but the issue represents a larger threat. It would hurt the $18 trln economy to add a full blown trade war with the EU to its escalating one with the United States.

China can divide-and-trade a less welcoming Europe

13 Jun 2024

EU tariffs on cars are a setback for Beijing. Yet President Xi Jinping will test the bloc’s ability to form a coherent policy against the world’s second largest economy. Hungary is benefiting from rising Chinese investments and trade and will become a key battleground.

India’s inequality deserves a bigger risk premium

12 Jun 2024

Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered his biggest electoral blow in one of the nation’s poorest states. By one measure, the gap between haves and have-nots is wider than during British rule. Closing it is tricky. Without change, though, stability will hang by a thread.

India breezes through its first continuity test

11 Jun 2024

Leader Narendra Modi began his third term by keeping nearly all his top ministers, defying speculation he'd cede key posts to allies. The resilience of markets following the shock election result underscores stability too. The costs of coalition rule, if any, may show up later.

Donald Trump verdict judged leniently by investors

31 May 2024

The former US president joins Italy’s Berlusconi and other politicians in the criminal hall of shame. He also may yet be re-elected, but there’s no extra risk being imputed to the country’s debt, currency or markets. However robust the system, sanctioned wrongdoing will erode it.

Trump’s rich backers normalize criminal behavior

30 May 2024

In a historic verdict, the property mogul became the first US president convicted in court. His outlandish behavior hasn’t cost him support from billionaires such as Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman, whose money may help Trump get re-elected. Their collective greed is now on trial.

A weaker Modi may not be too bad for India

23 May 2024

Business leaders were betting on a thumping win for the premier's party in the ongoing election and policy stability for five more years. Market volatility suggests some uncertainty. If the BJP cedes seats, India's growth may lose some momentum but there are potential gains too.

China’s graft probe heightens food security worry

22 May 2024

A probe into the agricultural minister spotlights Beijing's self-sufficiency concerns. Worsening geopolitics and trade tensions are spurring China to diversify imports, boost crop output and increase stockpiles. All of these will reshape global supply chains.

A confident India can afford to squeeze investors

21 May 2024

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman dismissed reports the government, if re-elected, will majorly alter how asset sales are taxed. There is merit to the idea, however. It could help deepen the $550 bln corporate bond market. The buoyant rally in stocks provides an opportunity.

China’s new property fix is a work in progress

20 May 2024

Local governments can now borrow up to $138 bln to buy unsold homes. It's the strongest signal yet that Beijing is determined to revive the country's ailing housing market. The amount is not enough. But it lays the foundations for providing more support as needed.

EU’s China car tariffs face a very high bar

6 May 2024

Brussels would need levies as high as 50% on Chinese imports to slow sales by BYD and rivals, double recent precedents. It'd prompt a sharp response. President Xi Jinping can use his visit this week to remind Europe’s carmakers how much they stand to lose in such a scenario.

Market forces knock ominously on US realtors’ door

12 Apr 2024

Home buyers will soon find it easier to negotiate fees they pay to 1.5 mln agents – a move that might have happened earlier in a less distorted market. Some brokers will earn more. But the reforms are likely to shrink the fee pool, which is tricky for ancillary firms like Zillow.

Japanese investors becoming the life of the party

21 Mar 2024

ValueAct, Elliott and Berkshire Hathaway have deployed some $16 bln to uncover value in Tokyo-listed stocks. They’re receiving warmer welcomes than raider T. Boone Pickens did in 1989. Even better, the US trio’s success is helping inspire local funds to sustain the momentum.

US Steel tug-of-war threatens to pull it apart

19 Mar 2024

Cleveland-Cliffs has put its rival in a bind, rallying political and labor opposition to a $14 bln agreed sale to Japan’s Nippon while pushing its own questionable takeover bid. No deal at all would be bad news for the target’s union workers. A carve-up might be inevitable.

Joe Biden out-MAGAs Donald Trump

14 Mar 2024

The US president is siding with union workers who oppose a US Steel takeover by Japan’s Nippon. He also said he would sign a bill forcing TikTok’s Chinese owner to sell the popular app or see it banned. The ad hoc approach to national security concerns sets a dangerous precedent.