Money‚ Politics

Nippon Life plays up Japan Inc’s existential angst

11 Dec 2024

The insurer is buying smaller US rival Resolution for $8.2 bln. Returns look low, and the weak yen makes overseas purchases more expensive. But the deal diversifies earnings too reliant on a shrinking home market. Assuming Washington allows, such transactions will keep flowing.

India compounds new central bank boss’s challenges

10 Dec 2024

Sanjay Malhotra will have enough on his plate as RBI governor dealing with a slowing domestic economy amid rising global tensions. But the messy way in which New Delhi handled the transition from six-year incumbent Shaktikanta Das means Malhotra starts on the back foot.

China cuts its private sector much-needed slack

9 Dec 2024

Crackdowns on education and other industries crushed businesses like tutoring firm New Oriental. But the $10 bln firm's recent revival shows Beijing is loosening its grip to boost consumption and create jobs. The shift will hand private giants a bigger role to reboot growth.

Crypto gets quick return on US election investment

4 Dec 2024

SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins would give the industry an ally with a lighter enforcement touch. The choice helps justify $200 mln of campaign funding and a nearly 60% jump in the value of bitcoin and its ilk. Lax oversight, however, raises the risk of another FTX-like crisis.

Trump Treasury pick is a Rorschach test, for now

22 Nov 2024

Hedge funder Scott Bessent is a Wall Street veteran, yet a fierce loyalist to a tariffs-and-tax-cuts agenda. The idea of a safe pair of hands may soothe market fears over less conventional potential picks. But that image can only last if he blunts Trump’s most out-there impulses.

Friendshoring is set to become friendshoving

19 Nov 2024

India benefits from firms like Apple moving production beyond China. Under Trump, the country may get whacked by reciprocal US tariffs, dinged for its trade surplus and for a tightly managed currency. The flaws in rerouting supply chains are about to become apparent.

Trump’s ideal Treasury pick: squarer of circles

18 Nov 2024

The president-elect wants tariffs that could up inflation by 75 bps, but also booming stocks and calm bonds. Jostling is underway between banker Howard Lutnick, investor Scott Bessent and others to be this agenda’s key emissary. But personnel cannot resolve policy tension.

Beijing can slow, not stop, the yuan’s fall

18 Nov 2024

China hawks are headed for the White House, upping the odds of more tariffs on the $18 trln economy. That's expected to add downward pressure on the renminbi. Regulators have plenty of tools, but drawing a line in the sand would only provide a target for traders to challenge.

Trump 2.0 goes warp speed on loyalty drive

13 Nov 2024

Unlike his first term, the US president-elect is making rapid appointments, with personal devotion beating experience or policy views. That explains Fox News host Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon and maybe Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. But some posts remain hard to fill.

Control of Congress will bolster second Trump term

11 Nov 2024

Winning the House of Representatives as well as the Senate would let the new US president build on his $4 trln 2017 tax cut and pass laws on immigration and healthcare. Republican infighting thwarted bigger changes last time. But the party is now more aligned with Trump’s agenda.

Reality-TV president will co-produce media shakeup

8 Nov 2024

Spotify star Joe Rogan and newspaper baron Jeff Bezos offered glimpses into how the industry is evolving. Broadcasters are also up against fickle consumers inundated by pricey streaming choices. The business models and deals taking shape can now expect input from Donald Trump.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

Elon Musk’s biggest conflict is with Donald Trump

6 Nov 2024

The CEO was enriched Wednesday after shares of Tesla rose by $100 bln following Trump’s victory. From contracts to regulations, Musk’s political and business interests worryingly overlap. Eventually he could become the nexus of Chinese and US leaders’ fractious whims.

Trump win sends markets into parallel realities

6 Nov 2024

The Republican candidate’s clear election victory raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation, sparking euphoria in US stocks, crypto and the dollar. Yet soaring yields on 30-year Treasury bonds reflect fears of future fiscal trouble. Investors cherry-pick policies at their peril.

Power brokers lose their grip on US politics

4 Nov 2024

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos or Larry Fink are tiptoeing around Tuesday’s vote for good reason. A Kamala Harris victory offers thin hope of easing tough policy. Donald Trump promises tax cuts but threatens unpredictable backlash. Fear is trumping hope, even in the boardroom.

Value push will mostly survive Japan election mess

29 Oct 2024

A decade-long effort to boost shareholder returns can continue to gain traction despite the LDP's disaster at the polls. It helps that Japan Exchange took charge of the party's initiative for structural reform. For now, as politicians vie for power, a weak yen will buoy stocks.

Crypto election gusher has bipartisan payoff

28 Oct 2024

Digital currency businesses spent $200 mln in political donations, an absurd amount even compared to unions and Big Oil. Harris and Trump have different approaches, but both are friendlier than Biden. The spending will give crypto regulation legitimacy after the election.

Elon Musk creates a must-win election

25 Oct 2024

The Tesla chief’s $840 bln EV maker would fare well or better under a Democratic president. But the temptation to become a global mastermind outside of autos is too strong — enough for Musk to back Donald Trump and gamble on the future of his federal contracts.

US economy is partying, but voters are hungover

16 Oct 2024

Full employment and subdued inflation have the economy in its best shape in years. Despite a rocky Biden tenure, Kamala Harris enters the election with a chance to blunt Trump’s advantages. But bruised consumer feelings – and the overall wealth picture – are getting in the way.

China’s march to strong yuan is long and perilous

26 Sep 2024

President Xi Jinping wants a more powerful currency. This means increased usage of the renminbi in global payments and central bank reserves, rather than replacing the dollar. But Beijing’s desires for bigger forex heft clash with its need to keep a tight grip on the economy.