Money‚ Politics

King Dollar’s long reign is set to continue

28 Mar 2025

President Donald Trump’s trade wars raise new concerns about the US dollar’s future as a reserve currency. Members of his administration are also ambivalent about the greenback’s status. Yet the dollar has defied doom-mongers for half a century. It will not be easily dethroned.

Politics can shove Korea’s value push forward

27 Mar 2025

Stocks are up 10% in 2025 despite political chaos. A bill to make company boards answer to shareholders can further lift markets but is at risk of a presidential veto. Public discontent with the ruling pro-business party, though, may force Seoul to embrace investor protections.

Cross-border home renovation deal is full of gaps

24 Mar 2025

On paper, Chicago-based decks and railings maker Azek complements its buyer, Aussie- and NYSE-listed cladding manufacturer James Hardie. But cost cuts don't cover the 41% premium on the $9bln deal and other synergies look dubious, not least as tariffs are set to hit US consumers.

Oval Office attacks on US law come at a price

19 Mar 2025

The Trump administration’s blitz on judges, independent agencies and contracts destabilizes the governance that underpins investors’ confidence. Even if courts mute some of the tumult, the country’s risk-free status is quickly eroding. A 0% debt premium is no longer warranted.

US banks set to capitalize on rare globalist pact

13 Mar 2025

Michelle Bowman should be a welcome pick as the Fed’s new sheriff to JPMorgan and its peers. She has advocated for aligning rules with Europe and beyond. It probably means a planned 9% capital hike on big lenders will vanish without upending the broader Basel Endgame framework.

Trump’s trade tactics have a timing problem

5 Mar 2025

In his annual address, the president threatened $53 bln in funds for onshoring chip factories while admitting that his approach of industrial policy by executive fiat may cause a 'disturbance.' CEOs depend on settled plans, not whipsawing tariffs. Near-termism is its own enemy.

Cryptocurrencies dealt fresh legitimacy discount

3 Mar 2025

Bitcoin surged to $95,000 after President Trump hinted at a strategic US reserve with XRP and other digital coins. There’s no reason for the government to own them. Alongside policy decisions on meme tokens and beyond, it undermines efforts to make the money more acceptable.

Postal shakeup logic fits on back of a US stamp

24 Feb 2025

Donald Trump plans to commandeer the mail service, which lost $10 bln last year. It’s a bad target for radical change because unprofitable routes and capped prices help make it popular. As with national parks and fighting disease, public-good benefits outweigh the monetary costs.

China can steal a march on US tariff uncertainties

14 Feb 2025

Donald Trump’s trade war will take weeks or months to shape up. Rather than waiting for the dust to settle on the $600 bln relationship, rolling out bold stimulus to tackle domestic challenges is Beijing’s best course. A strong economy will shore up China's negotiating position.

Migration jeopardises Modi’s US charm offensive

11 Feb 2025

The Indian leader has already cut import duties ahead of his meeting with President Trump this week. Narrowing a $35 bln trade surplus with the US also looks manageable with oil and arms purchases. But finding a similarly beneficial deal on illegal migration will be tough.

Half-baked budget leaves France vulnerable

10 Feb 2025

Prime Minister François Bayrou managed to ram his finance bill through parliament. Bond investors look relieved, but with a deficit at 5.4% of GDP, France’s government still can’t control a rising debt load. It may need more market pressure to get serious.

Japan passes first Trump test with perfect timing

10 Feb 2025

Shigeru Ishiba left his American counterpart smiling with agreements to shrink the trade deficit, buy more natural gas and invest in US Steel. That provides the Japanese leader a tailwind for upcoming budget negotiations and could shield his country from the next wave of tariffs.

Disappearing US data dims economic outlook

7 Feb 2025

Every industry relies on government facts and figures, some of which Donald Trump is purging. Heavy users generated $750 bln of revenue in 2022, growing their share of GDP by 50% in a decade. If official information is less available or trusted, expect more garbage in – and out.

Tesla and SpaceX are ideal trade war hostages

5 Feb 2025

If President Trump makes good on tariff threats, smaller nations can amplify any retaliation: target his allies. The $1.2 trln carmaker and $350 bln satellite firm’s sky-high valuations benefit from Elon Musk’s political ties. They aren’t pricing in risks to hefty overseas sales.

Tariff whiplash fires up China stimulus games

4 Feb 2025

President Trump paused steep levies on Mexico and Canada but his aggression against allies puts a worst-case scenario for Beijing back on the table. Chinese policymakers can't avert disaster just by honouring its last trade truce with the US. They'll need to be unusually nimble.

Trade war brinksmanship reveals US vulnerability

3 Feb 2025

A one-month pause on tariffs against Mexico may pull the continent back from spiraling retaliatory levies. Abrupt hostilities would slam farmers and carmakers, both used to government protection, immediately. It’s a tactical weakness that President Trump risks running right into.

Trump’s economic trench warfare needs an off-ramp

3 Feb 2025

The US president is betting his economy can weather a tariffs tit-for-tat better than Canada and Mexico. But it'll raise inflation for Americans, too, and it's hard to see how he wins. Even if the battle is short, Washington's poor treatment of allies will have lasting effects.

Unsung rebels fend off US policy whiplash

30 Jan 2025

Legal authorities nationwide helped block the White House’s $3 trln funding freeze, a reminder of how federalism curbs power even if one party rules Washington. During Donald Trump’s first term, states won 83% of cases against him. It’s a valuable political, and economic, buffer.

Excessive belt-tightening risks choking US economy

28 Jan 2025

A budget edict citing 'wokeness' and 'transgenderism' claims to temporarily freeze $3 trln in federal grants and loans. Chipmakers, small business owners and medical researchers are among those probably affected. If no one stops the overreach, the consequences may be dangerous.

Davos presents elites with economic Rorschach Test

27 Jan 2025

Delegates in the Swiss ski resort hailed Donald Trump’s deregulatory plans and got starry-eyed about AI. Others worried about inflation, debt, and fossil fuels, while Europeans bemoaned their back yard. Assessing the “mood in Davos” reveals more about the observer than the world.