Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

China’s world banks are geopolitical victims

15 Jun 2023

Canada suspended activity at the AIIB after a senior employee claimed it has become an instrument of the Chinese Communist Party. The Beijing-based infrastructure lender tried to play by global rules, but multilateral funding models are struggling to evade diplomatic tensions.

Fed’s pause is now easier to extend

14 Jun 2023

Chair Jerome Powell’s rate-setting crew snapped its long streak of hikes. With the banking crisis stabilized, the FOMC can refocus on prices. Inflation persists, but is moving in the right direction, and there’s less reason to hew to investors expecting a fresh increase in July.

EU takes broad aim at ESG jungle

14 Jun 2023

Europe wants to rein in the industry for environmental, social and governance assessments by forcing firms to disclose their models and data. A plan to stop conflicts of interest may create compliance headaches. But more transparency and oversight should lead to better outcomes.

ECB’s autopilot raises risk of hard landing

14 Jun 2023

The European Central Bank is set to hike rates on Thursday and again in July. But traders’ hopes for cuts soon afterwards may be dashed, given pressure from hardline countries to tame stubborn inflation. Europe’s recovery is looking increasingly fragile.

Capital Calls: Funky bank debt

14 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: Credit investors are increasingly willing to buy quasi-equity instruments known as AT1s, despite a near-death experience for the asset class amid the Credit Suisse crisis in March.

Rich spending will buoy pesky inflation

13 Jun 2023

US prices rose 0.1% last month, suggesting inflation is slowing. Yet hotel and dining costs show Americans are still spending. That’s likely because high earners’ wages are moving in the right direction. They’ll keep pushing up prices, complicating the economic picture.

Fed’s rate hike habit will be hard to kick

13 Jun 2023

The US central bank is mulling a pause after raising interest rates at its last 10 meetings. In this Exchange podcast, Morgan Stanley chief economist Seth Carpenter lays out the calculus behind the Federal Reserve’s next move, and why it’s so hard for policymakers to pivot.

Japan’s economic scars might blind it to inflation

13 Jun 2023

Central bank chief Kazuo Ueda has held rates low despite consumer prices rising well above his 2% target. Premature tightening has derailed Japanese growth revivals in the past. Yet, as recent Western examples show, procrastination can be a bigger risk to global markets.

Fork in rates road forces markets to get picky

9 Jun 2023

While the US Federal Reserve looks to halt monetary tightening, other central banks are still hiking. That ends a year-long trend of borrowing costs climbing in sync. As policymakers’ plans diverge, traders will need to work out each economy’s separate path and bet accordingly.

Lessons from the original Industrial Revolution

9 Jun 2023

There’s much excitement that automation will unleash a new era of innovation. Yet in Britain, which led the first transformation of the industrial era, growth has stalled. Policymakers should study the conditions which sparked previous economic success, writes Edward Chancellor.

Greece offers UK handy way to axe ‘greedflation’

8 Jun 2023

The cost of what Brits eat is up by almost a fifth in a year, so Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is mulling a cap on shoppers’ bills. That would hit grocers and may end up boosting inflation. Athens’ limits on retailers’ margins are a better way to make staples more affordable.

Stingy European savers will help the ECB, not LVMH

6 Jun 2023

Euro zone citizens have 1 trln euros in pandemic-era savings. Unlike their US peers, they are unlikely to splash the cash in malls and restaurants. That’s bad news for retailers and service providers, but it will help Frankfurt’s rate-setters slow the economy and cool inflation.

Greece’s reform labours are only half complete

5 Jun 2023

Investors like the euro zone’s former problem child, but a large current account deficit and corruption undermine its appeal. It’s not clear Kyriakos Mitsotakis will do what’s needed to boost savings and improve the rule of law if re-elected as prime minister, says Hugo Dixon.

Capital Calls: Turkey, Indivior

5 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: President Tayyip Erdogan’s new treasury minister will struggle to steer the $900 bln economy towards orthodox monetary policies; shares in the London-listed drugmaker jumped after it settled a lawsuit, making it more appealing to potential buyers.

Securonomics is fuzzy new lodestar for investors

2 Jun 2023

Globalisation, which lowered barriers for trade and financial flows, is in retreat. Taking its place is a doctrine that places national security above economic efficiency. Felix Martin argues the shift for money managers is profound – and throws up some big policy contradictions.

Treasury buyers live for the moment, unfortunately

1 Jun 2023

Markets tend to brush off near-disasters when it comes to pricing U.S. debt. Yields fell as Congress struck a deal to avoid default, even though the Treasury is prepping a borrowing spree and rates are staying stubbornly high. Investors’ fingers remain firmly stuck in their ears.

Pricey services are weary ratesetters’ last battle

1 Jun 2023

The rising costs of flights, restaurants and concerts are hampering central bank efforts to drag consumer price inflation back down to 2%. In the US the post-pandemic consumption boom is fading. In Europe and the UK, though, higher wages are prolonging the fight.

Overhauling US debt limit is an easy no-brainer

31 May 2023

Congress is again set to raise the cap on the country’s borrowing mere days before a default. President Joe Biden isn’t willing to abolish the ceiling, but every creditor has limits. A soft limit on the deficit, which balances the budget when crossed, would be a better safeguard.

Summer vote can dissipate Spain’s economic clouds

31 May 2023

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is gambling on a snap general election after a rout in local polls. Frictions within his ruling coalition irked voters. Strong popular backing would give him the mandate to tackle the country’s fiscal woes, pension costs and high unemployment.

ECB’s crisis tool works best if it’s never used

30 May 2023

The European Central Bank is touting its powers to buy sovereign bonds if they come under attack from the market. That has kept traders in check, so far. The trick for Frankfurt officials is to convincingly threaten to deploy emergency measures without ever having to.