Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab

30 Jun 2023

Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.

The next revolution in monetary policy is underway

30 Jun 2023

Central banks are grappling with rising prices and fragile financial markets, raising doubts about their focus on price stability. Recent interventions by the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements are signs of a broader rethink, says Felix Martin.

India’s push to democratise credit tests limits

30 Jun 2023

It’s shaping its digital payments system, which supports 9 bln consumer transactions a month, into a loan engine. Homegrown card operator RuPay and fintech Paytm are winners. But growth in unsecured credit is blistering and the regulator is delivering mixed messages on the risks.

Bank of Italy pick will give Italy an EU headache

28 Jun 2023

ECB member Fabio Panetta is heading home to lead the national central bank. That will remove a dove from Europe’s rate-setters, just as they pursue a hard line on inflation. To send another Italian to Frankfurt, premier Giorgia Meloni may need to compromise on Brussels issues.

Pricey property is a pointy dilemma for Singapore

28 Jun 2023

Rich foreign arrivals including family offices are an easy scapegoat for house prices bucking a global slump. But Asia’s safe haven needs to keep the public onside more than other hubs like Hong Kong as it vies for global capital. The stakes of keeping everyone happy are high.

Why backing prevention can yield better health

27 Jun 2023

Treating illnesses like cancer consumes 11% of global GDP, according to the World Health Organization. In this Exchange podcast, Dr. Katie Tryon, director of healthcare strategy at Vitality, explains that overburdened care systems need to spend their way back into shape.

Peak oil is another reason to shun OPEC club

26 Jun 2023

The oil-producing organization wants Guyana to join, but the tiny South American nation prefers to pump while it can. Cartels are difficult to maintain at the best of times because members can cheat. When future demand is finite, there’s even less incentive to cooperate.

Ukraine’s push for speedy rebuild faces obstacles

23 Jun 2023

Kyiv is keen to put aid money to work on an early start of the reconstruction effort. Foreign donors and investors remain wary of the war dangers. A scheme to insure those risks could speed up things, but going too fast could also compromise Ukraine’s long-term recovery effort.

Interest rates have broken the global wealth pump

23 Jun 2023

The world has been through a second Gilded Age where the rich got richer, helped by ultra-low interest rates. In the past, such episodes ended in revolution or civil war. This time, higher borrowing costs can bring about a painful but peaceful transition, says Edward Chancellor.

China’s $72 bln tax break heralds green-car crunch

23 Jun 2023

Extending hefty incentives to buyers for another four years shows Beijing is anxious to support electric vehicles. But prolonging existing subsidies is unlikely to transform the fortunes of loss-making groups like Nio and Xpeng. Weaker rivals may be nearing the end of the road.

China stares hard at its own lost decade

23 Jun 2023

It’s tinkering with interest rates but holding off from deeper measures needed to stimulate the economy including propping up real estate or bailing out local governments. As consumption remains depressed and investment falls, the country faces slipping into a downward spiral.

Firefighting leaves central banks on shaky ground

22 Jun 2023

Policymakers in the UK, Switzerland, Norway and Turkey all hiked rates on Thursday. Stubborn inflation gives them little choice, even though they may cause recessions. In London and Ankara, ratesetters’ job is made much harder by politicians’ own failures and need for scapegoats.

Credit-card crackdown will net limited rewards

22 Jun 2023

Over 80% of Americans have one, yet plastic’s complexity rivals financial derivatives. A Biden administration plan to cut late fees to $8 sounds like a step toward simplicity and a savvy vote-winner. Banks will probably be no worse off, however, and consumers scantly better.

Rebuilding Ukraine: how much and who pays?

22 Jun 2023

Talk of reconstruction may seem premature with Russia still firing missiles at Kyiv. Yet that’s what policymakers and financiers gathered in London this week to debate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the cost, the timetable, and who picks up the tab.

Global airlines grasp at the 100% recovery

21 Jun 2023

Passengers are slowly taking back to the skies but remain reluctant to travel internationally. Singapore Airlines logged a record net profit but won’t say when it will return to pre-pandemic capacity. Rivals are more committed but whether they can deliver is up in the air.

Credibility crisis requires BoE to write new plot

20 Jun 2023

The Bank of England’s inflation outlook is faulty because it relies on traders’ expectations. That leads markets to overreact to data, causing pain for homebuyers and firms. Adopting the US system, where policymakers make predictions, would curb policy mistakes and volatility.

Mega-merger gives Indian lender new lease on life

20 Jun 2023

HDFC Bank will, after combining with its parent and largest shareholder next month, become a $140 bln mortgage giant in a credit-starved market. That’s an enticing prospect for foreign investors - assuming the bank’s tech and culture get a needed overhaul.

Hong Kong’s yuan-trading push is a long-term bet

19 Jun 2023

The city’s bourse operator will allow investors to trade some stocks in yuan. The hope is to eventually lure more mainland Chinese and offshore investors. But as with the near decade-old trading link with China, any tangible financial benefits will take a while to flow through.

China’s next export is an electric-vehicle fight

19 Jun 2023

Carmakers led by BYD have established supremacy against global brands thanks to efficient supply chains. As sales stall in the People’s Republic, their long-held ambitions to drive overseas including to Europe is suddenly a necessity. They’ll road-test rising anti-China sentiment.

Crypto is dead: long live crypto!

16 Jun 2023

Already reeling from fraud and falling prices, cryptocurrencies suffered a fatal blow with US charges against two leading exchanges. Yet Felix Martin argues that the demise of speculative digital tokens may help revive their original purpose as private global currencies.