Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Capital Calls: Sequoia, Heineken, Moneyball

31 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The venture capital firm issues a refund to cryptocurrency investors; the $57 bln brewer slashes its operating profit outlook; Steve Cohen’s New York Mets baseball team and its whopping $364 mln payroll is a mess, but in sports beta is the alpha.

The BRICS are better off disbanding than expanding

31 Jul 2023

Developing countries are understandably unhappy that rich nations don’t address their needs. But they won’t get much from a club including giant China and near-pariah Russia. Brazil, India and other emerging economies might achieve more by creating a new group, says Hugo Dixon.

Capital Calls: Bank of Japan, StanChart

28 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: Governor Kazuo Ueda shook markets by introducing a more flexible approach to controlling government bond yields, but he can easily retreat if inflation drops. Meanwhile, Bill Winters’ lender is improving but the heavy lifting is far from over.

Chinese AI arrives by stealth, not with a bang

28 Jul 2023

Beijing’s new rules for the technology are less onerous than expected. Armed with vast data troves, giants from Alibaba to Baidu are leading the industry’s development. But President Xi Jinping’s focus on national security and censorship, plus US chip curbs, will slow progress.

Lagarde hides velvet policy in iron talk

27 Jul 2023

After lifting borrowing costs to a record high, the ECB president sounded tough on inflation to persuade markets interest rates will stay elevated. But she also hinted the central bank could pause. Investors can prepare for a less aggressive monetary stance.

Inflation dip puts central bankers in a pickle

27 Jul 2023

The Federal Reserve and ECB once again hiked interest rates. Yet US price rises are easing with few signs of economic pain. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how this phenomenon, dubbed ‘immaculate disinflation’, complicates what policymakers do next.

Japan will gain from ultra-cautious ratesetters

27 Jul 2023

The world’s third-largest economy is on the cusp of a virtuous circle where inflation lifts wages and spending. But the central bank needs to tread carefully. If it prematurely declares victory and tightens policy, it could spur a debt rout. The cost of waiting is also growing.

Peak US interest rates will weaken dollar quicker

26 Jul 2023

The Fed’s latest hike should be the last, based on how investors are trading. Higher inflation elsewhere and slower increases by other monetary authorities suggest divergent policies will persist. Similar conditions that turbocharged the greenback are set to reverse thrust.

ECB’s tough-guy act is getting harder to maintain

26 Jul 2023

Traders expect the European Central Bank to hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde wants them to stay high to curb inflation, yet markets are betting on cuts in early 2024. Unless she wins the argument, borrowing costs may have to rise more.

Australia’s $2.5 trln pension stash is one to envy

26 Jul 2023

Fuelled by compulsory retirement plans, the country’s superannuation industry is outgrowing its home market. Funds like AustralianSuper, ART, Aware and others are becoming cash-rich behemoths courted by governments and private financiers alike. But they’re no pushover.

‘Immaculate disinflation’ places Fed in purgatory

25 Jul 2023

Inflation is falling towards the US central bank’s 2% target without a recession or job losses. History and economic theory suggested such a feat was impossible. Doubts over conventional thinking leave policymakers in a bind over the next stage of their fight to rein in prices.

China’s stimulus tone hits a high pitch

25 Jul 2023

Party leaders are finally admitting they need to do more to support the $18 trln economy and its real estate market. Some fiscal tweaks and measures to speed home sales in big cities may follow. But in raising expectations, what Beijing considers a new normal remains a mystery.

Saudi Mbappé bid even less rational than it looks

25 Jul 2023

State-owned Al Hilal offered $1.1 bln in fees and pay for soccer star Kylian Mbappé, reports say. Spain’s LaLiga gets less in international broadcast revenue a year. Saudi’s nascent league would gain, but the data doesn’t suggest either it or “sportswashing” overall will work.

Robin Hood tariff could curb airline emissions

24 Jul 2023

The aviation industry doesn’t pay duty on fuel despite causing 4% of global warming. A tax would promote cleaner energy and raise billions of dollars, but poor countries oppose it. Rich nations could break the logjam by giving some proceeds to the less well-off, says Hugo Dixon.

Spain’s next PM will have to fix economy pronto

21 Jul 2023

Left-wing incumbent Pedro Sánchez trails his conservative rival ahead of Sunday’s poll. Whoever forms a government will need to move fast. Robust growth – and 161 bln euros in EU funds – offer an opportunity to tackle joblessness, low investment and loose public finances.

Macquarie and KPMG fall down M&A mine shaft

21 Jul 2023

The two were advisers in Aussie nickel extractor IGO’s near-$1 bln takeover of rival Western Areas. The buyer has now written down most of the asset’s value. Clawing back IGO bosses’ bonuses and the counsellors’ fees wouldn’t repair the damage, but it would be a good start.

Discover dabbles with two types of delinquency

20 Jul 2023

Credit-card firms' investors are used to pricing in the risk that customers pay late, or not at all. But a swipe by regulators for poor compliance – not the first for CEO Roger Hochschild – is a reminder that bad behavior can erode value too, and is much harder to predict.

Biden has too much confidence in Bidenomics

20 Jul 2023

The president’s new slogan parades a revival of US manufacturing and jobs. Spreading the word now, however, could backfire. Sticky inflation and slower hiring are out of Biden’s control, and they could leave voters poorer or jobless by the time they reach the ballot box.

China’s growing pains are only just beginning

20 Jul 2023

The recovery in the world’s second largest economy is stalling. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how that weakness will test President Xi Jinping’s resolve to deleverage sectors including property and add urgency to find new growth engines.