Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

Saudi is wild card in Middle East’s new turmoil

18 Oct 2023

War in Israel complicates Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s modernisation push. He must consider the oil market, rivalry with Iran, overseas investment, and the views of 32 mln citizens. How the Gulf’s biggest economy proceeds has big implications for the region – and the world.

David Solomon’s Goldman remix is audibly off-key

17 Oct 2023

The Wall Street firm is well short of a 15% return on equity goal, even absent consumer-bank snafus and property writedowns. Its CEO gave up DJ-ing, but promises Goldman can spin a new tune focused on more stable income. It will take much more to prove that’s attainable.

The financial ramifications of US-China tensions

17 Oct 2023

The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.

Globalisation woes create new winners and losers

17 Oct 2023

After peaking at 61% of world GDP in 2008, trade is falling due to tariffs, industrial policies and geopolitical strife. That means higher wages and production costs for companies, and more inflation for consumers. Yet some countries, commodities and workers stand to gain.

Putin and Xi’s strengthening bond has a weakness

17 Oct 2023

The Russian president’s expected meeting with his Chinese peer re-ups their “no-limits” friendship. Beijing is gorging on cheap crude and sending goods to its sanctions-hit neighbour. However, the thriving $190 bln bilateral trade is eroding Moscow’s economic sovereignty.

Rainmakers find political hedge in Chris Christie

16 Oct 2023

Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper and Paul Tudor Jones have backed the former New Jersey governor for US president. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy raised cash from the Winklevii. Donald Trump is still Republican front-runner. But at this stage, it makes sense to spread cash.

Jamie Dimon makes anxiety a feature not a bug

13 Oct 2023

JPMorgan’s boss is again fretting about the future: interest rates, regulation, war. Yet his bank’s latest results confirm it’s doing just fine. Income is growing faster, and expenses slower, than expected. Dimon can afford to spread the dread; most rivals don’t have the luxury.

Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive

13 Oct 2023

Financial markets suggest the US economy will avoid a deep recession even as interest rates rise. The British economist Bernard Connolly argues these expectations are deluded. If he’s right, inflation-linked bonds will be a good bet for investors, argues Edward Chancellor.

Singapore policy review shift is sign of times

13 Oct 2023

The central bank will double the frequency of its monetary settings statements from 2024. The unexpected move to quarterly meetings is overdue. Flexibility to respond fast to the risks posed by volatile geopolitics is paramount, more so for Singapore’s open economy.

China’s timid bank buying sends rescue signals

12 Oct 2023

The state is raising its stakes in its Big Four lenders. It might shore up market sentiment and improve Beijing’s position to tackle financial risk in property and local governments. The intervention so far is less bold than its failed moves in 2015 but looks more prudent.

Australia’s China détente is a tough one to copy

12 Oct 2023

Beijing freed an Aussie journalist and has lifted import bans on goods like coal and hay. High commodity prices propped up Canberra’s coffers, while a less bellicose administration and a scant manufacturing base helped reconciliation. The US and the EU can’t use such a blueprint.

Europe’s rising bond vigilantes are necessary evil

11 Oct 2023

Debt costs for weaker states like Italy are jumping. Europe’s delay in agreeing new fiscal rules means hostile markets are the only credible check on government spending. Slowing growth and a hamstrung ECB means the backdrop may well get choppier.

How the Federal Reserve got inflation wrong

10 Oct 2023

US policymakers underplayed the spike in consumer prices in 2021. In this Exchange podcast, Don Kohn, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Fed vice chair, argues that a rule change a year earlier was a key reason why the central bank failed to lift rates faster.

Israel’s robust economy faces a major stress test

10 Oct 2023

The Middle East state’s thriving tech sector and strong institutions have helped it weather past security crises. Its latest one is much bigger, though. One key indicator will be whether foreign capital can retain its recent enthusiasm for investing in the $500 bln economy.

IMF’s bond vigilante script is ripe for a rewrite

10 Oct 2023

The International Monetary Fund wants politicians to close the fiscal taps. Yet it’s also warning about a sharp slowdown in global growth. Markets are worried about debt levels but without spending and investment the world will stagnate.

Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven

9 Oct 2023

Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.

Nobel Prize points way to closing gender pay gap

9 Oct 2023

US economist Claudia Goldin won the Swedish award for showing that wage inequality between men and women spikes after children are born. Governments can rectify that by funding childcare instead of fossil fuels. A more balanced workforce will boost tax revenue and spur growth.

Capital Calls: Germany, Schaeffler

9 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s resounding defeat in key local elections on Sunday sends a message to Brussels; the German group’s 3.6 bln euro acquisition of auto supplier Vitesco makes sense in an era of greater competition.

The EU is stuck with its one-trick refugee policy

9 Oct 2023

Africans and Asians fleeing persecution could boost the European Union’s ageing workforce. But its leaders are so scared of nationalism at home they prefer to pay North African regimes to stop asylum-seekers crossing the Mediterranean. It’s a short-term fix, says Hugo Dixon.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.