Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

BOJ chooses slow path out of zero-rate limbo

31 Oct 2023

Japan’s central bank again tweaked its policy to permit slightly higher yields on 10-year government bonds as it inches back to positive interest rates. The snail’s pace is understandable. Yet with bond yields rising across the developed world, it remains a loose-money outlier.

Disney walks open-eyed towards Reliance mousetrap

31 Oct 2023

Bob Iger’s $147 bln media giant may sell a majority stake in its India business to Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate, per Bloomberg. The division is losing money and subscribers, mostly to a Reliance-owned rival. A deal at half the value when Disney took control would be a victory.

Influencer model infects US political fundraising

27 Oct 2023

The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.

Li Keqiang death dilutes China reform promise

27 Oct 2023

The premier’s 10-year tenure began with hopes for a market-friendly revamp. Efforts to make state firms more efficient through private capital had all but reversed course as he left office. His sudden passing will further weaken the case against Beijing’s sprawling interference.

Cooled auto hotheads give labor disputes hope

26 Oct 2023

Ford Motor’s new union agreement could cost $2 bln in pay rises. That stings, but is well short of earlier asks while also recompensing workers. Much about the agreement seems reasonable. As labor pressures continue, the agreement suggests sensible outcomes are possible.

ECB’s rosy outlook is a recipe for economic pain

26 Oct 2023

Frankfurt policymakers think the euro zone will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and want to keep rates high to fight inflation. Yet most data point to stagnation or recession. A gloomier perspective would enable the European Central Bank to ease policy and help the bloc’s economy.

China deal offers Stellantis ingenious EV shortcut

26 Oct 2023

The $58 bln Jeep-owner is paying $1.6 bln for 20% of electric-car maker Leapmotor and the right to sell its autos abroad. Hitching up with the Chinese group’s affordable and advanced tech will help CEO Carlos Tavares accelerate his green goals, despite festering geopolitics.

Hess deal would be higher-octane with cash added

25 Oct 2023

The takeover target’s rich valuation grants it a chunky stake in an enlarged Chevron. But the $53 bln merger now offers no premium and only shares in an underperforming acquiror. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth may have to bid against himself by throwing in a sweetener with hard currency.

Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg

25 Oct 2023

Soaring military spending is Moscow’s main growth engine, leading to tight labour markets and 6% inflation. The government is strengthening its grip on a country gradually closing to the world and financially beholden to China. If peace returns, a collapse is a real risk.

How to spur investments in greener power grids

24 Oct 2023

Electricity networks need to be upgraded and adapted to a carbon-free world. That means doubling investments to $750 bln a year. With returns uncertain, attracting cash is not easy, Secure Meters CEO Suket Singhal argues in this Exchange podcast. New pricing models would help.

Letter from the editor: Introducing The Big View

24 Oct 2023

Breakingviews today launches a daily in-depth column which helps our readers make sense of the world. Each weekday, The Big View will go beyond the headlines with an original and deeply reported take on big issues in finance, deals, economics, investment and geopolitics.

Time is ripe for another push on carbon pricing

24 Oct 2023

Green subsidies can help fight climate change but are fiscally unsustainable. Regulations can be politically unfeasible, while doing nothing is ecologically untenable. Carbon taxes raise cash, some of which can be used to ease the public backlash.

Foxconn’s China woes expose supply chain dilemma

24 Oct 2023

A tax probe is hitting the Apple supplier ahead of a key Taiwanese election in which founder Terry Gou is running for president. It may complicate the manufacturer’s plan to move production outside China. Other multinationals will learn from Foxconn the true cost of reshoring.

US deficit problem screams for revenue solution

23 Oct 2023

Rising interest costs threaten to widen a $1.7 trln budget gap already stretched beyond 7% of GDP. Lawmakers are haggling about spending, but the math only works with higher taxes. It means closing an inheritance loophole, charging the rich more and resetting the corporate rate.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

Flights to safety in a dangerous world are on sale

20 Oct 2023

Fears of war, pestilence or financial collapse usually drive demand for safe assets like US treasuries or gold, making them a gauge of unease. Yet amid spiraling global threats, that isn’t happening. Whether from calm or complacency, the price of geopolitical insurance is cheap.

CVC may have guard rails against choppy IPO waters

20 Oct 2023

The European buyout firm is prepping a float valued at over 10 bln euros. Market jitters make it an odd time to do so. Yet securing a share-based M&A currency may matter as much as the IPO price, and the buyers could be sovereign funds that can live with post-listing price dips.

US tech controls help and hinder China chipmakers

20 Oct 2023

Washington’s latest restrictions aim to curb Chinese access to semiconductors for AI and warfare. Beijing is years away from replicating sophisticated components and tools like those made by ASML. But the rules create opportunities for local champions such as $30 bln SMIC.

China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation

20 Oct 2023

The People’s Republic invests more than Japan did at the height of its 1980s asset bubble. China’s real estate is more overvalued, and its debt is higher. President Xi Jinping’s centralised rule and stifling of private enterprise increase the risk of Japanese-style lost decades.

Gaza turmoil’s repercussions extend far and wide

19 Oct 2023

Among other consequences, Israel’s new war complicates the path to friendlier relations between itself and Saudi Arabia. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the possible scenarios for the region, but also its implications for the US government.