Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

Japan’s virtuous M&A circle starts with 7-Eleven

5 Dec 2024

The battle for control of $45 bln convenience store owner Seven & i is being cheered in Tokyo. It’s evidence of progress in the drive to improve efficiencies in the world’s third-largest economy. It could also be a sign of what’s to come if officials make the right next moves.

ECB approach to French storm can be a Gallic shrug

4 Dec 2024

The risk premium on France’s debt is at its highest since the 2012 euro zone crisis. Yet even if it worsens, the European Central Bank is unlikely to deploy knee-jerk rate cuts or bond-buying. It also has the tools to address spillover effects on other member states.

UK is now risky lab rat for rich tax-perk reform

4 Dec 2024

Thousands of Britain-based families look to have moved to the UAE. One key driver is the abolition of ‘non-dom’ rules that in 2022 shielded 37,800 residents’ offshore cash from tax. The UK may be right that the reform will raise revenue – but it’s on the hook if it doesn’t.

China can let new bond binge play out – for now

4 Dec 2024

Last time treasury yields dived, the central bank jumped in. Now they’re even lower, but there is less official fuss. Concern over speculation has eased and the government is about to borrow billions. That resets the bar for intervention.

Macron’s options all spell trouble for French debt

3 Dec 2024

The country’s government may collapse, putting the ball in President Emmanuel Macron’s court. He can appoint another centrist prime minister, pick a leader sympathetic to the far right, or call a presidential vote. None of those moves shrink a budget deficit hitting 6% of GDP.

Why central banks were both lucky and smart

3 Dec 2024

Policymakers in major economies have quelled the post-pandemic inflation surge without causing recessions. In this episode of The Big View podcast, BlackRock’s Alex Brazier argues big rate hikes in the US, Europe and the UK helped – but so did unusually strong labour markets.

Bain’s Japan chip IPO is a tough sell

3 Dec 2024

The US private equity firm will list Kioxia six years after leading the memory unit's $18 bln carve-out from Toshiba. The roughly $5 bln equity valuation means poor returns for sellers. And convincing new investors to look past Kioxia's crippling debt pile will be a slog.

Why Mexico’s global trade sweet spot may turn sour

2 Dec 2024

The country has hugely benefitted from the 'nearshoring' trend, and last year surpassed China with $475 bln of US goods exports. President-elect Donald Trump’s 25% tariff plan would undermine that progress. And the new Mexican government has little room to soften the blow.

India’s slowdown flashes an early-warning signal

2 Dec 2024

GDP growth slipped to 5.4% last quarter, the slowest pace in nearly two years, on weak manufacturing and spending. Perhaps it’s a blip. But the Adani fallout, Trump tariff threats and China stimulus could all deal blows to rosy assumptions about the world’s fifth-largest economy.

Currency drop worsens Moscow’s stagflation fears

29 Nov 2024

The Russian central bank may have to hike interest rates from an already high 21% after this week’s rouble meltdown, caused by US sanctions on a key bank. But its real problem is that inflation keeps rising as the economy is slowing, deepening fears of a crash-landing.

China offers escape hatch for Hong Kong tycoons

28 Nov 2024

The $200 bln China Mobile is eyeing assets in the financial hub. Beijing's push for deeper integration between Hong Kong and the mainland plus beaten down valuations mean other state giants can bargain hunt too. Family-owned business like Li Ka-shing's ports may all be in play.

France faces long-term pain more than debt crisis

28 Nov 2024

Fears that PM Michel Barnier will be ousted by parliament after failing to pass his budget sent French spreads to a 12-year high. The country’s size and resources shield it from a sharp fiscal crunch, but six months without a proper government would weigh heavily on its finances.

Indian business may learn wrong lesson from Adani

27 Nov 2024

US corruption charges against tycoon Gautam Adani have cast a shadow over Narendra Modi’s war on graft. The prime minister has made progress. But rather than spurring a cleanup in the $4 trln economy, the saga might just make its capitalists warier of tapping global markets.

A financial historian’s warning about the AI boom

26 Nov 2024

Artificial intelligence hopes have unleashed an investment frenzy, propelling chip giant Nvidia’s value to $3.5 trln. In this episode of The Big View podcast, mathematician Andrew Odlyzko explores parallels with the 1990s dotcom bubble and Britain’s railway mania of the 1840s.

Mining M&A makes a mockery of windfall taxes

26 Nov 2024

Anglo American has just joined BHP and others disposing of coal assets in securing a cut from new owners if the fossil fuel's price soars. It's savvy but also breezily undercuts their objections to governments pulling similar tricks to reduce costs for consumers.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

Russian gas to Europe is on the slow road to zero

22 Nov 2024

The slim possibility of a Trump-brokered end to Moscow’s war with Ukraine raises the question of whether the European Union would ever buy more of its fossil fuels. Yet EU reliance on Russian pipeline gas is set to fall further. Moreover, Europe doesn’t need it.

There are few good ways out of China’s stock slump

21 Nov 2024

Despite a recent bounce driven by stimulus hopes, the country’s benchmark equity index is down by nearly a third in the past three-and-a-half years. Though valuations look cheap, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to even worse outcomes for investors.

Bitcoin’s $100,000 moment will be a perfect storm

21 Nov 2024

The digital currency’s price is inching towards the six-figure threshold. Between buying from crypto whale MicroStrategy, the launch of options contracts on spot ETFs, and potentially looser regulations under President-elect Donald Trump, the euphoria is becoming self-sustaining.

Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes

20 Nov 2024

US consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, helping President-elect Donald Trump win the White House. His policies, though, may stoke inflation. Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar like a hot economy. But a rising deficit could upset debt investors and hit the current market stars.