Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

Coinbase adds more wobbly legs to stool

16 Feb 2024

Coinbase posted its first annual profit since 2021, sending its shares up 12%. But the $46 bln digital currency exchange is moving from volatile trading fees to even shakier revenue streams, such as interest on deposits and legally ambiguous staking.

Navalny’s death will make Putin weaker

16 Feb 2024

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died in jail. In the country, he will become a symbol of what President Putin fears most in democracy and political freedom. In the rest of the world, his passing will undermine the voices arguing for a softer policy toward Moscow.

Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost

16 Feb 2024

Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.

UK growth alarm is best focused on the long term

15 Feb 2024

The shrinkage in Britain’s economy at the end of 2023 belies an improving climate. With falling inflation, low unemployment and a stirring housing market, rates may soon fall. Yet pre-election fiscal giveaways may impede a fix to the real issue: ongoing poor productivity growth.

Japan loses a big title, and perhaps its way

15 Feb 2024

A surprise technical recession means the country is no longer the world’s third-largest economy. Even more unnerving is a slew of weak data that make it harder for the central bank to end an era of ultra-low interest rates. Companies’ wage negotiations will be a deciding factor.

Indonesia votes for status quo, ups the ante

15 Feb 2024

Prabowo Subianto is the next president, polls show. He won after pledging to continue the policies of outgoing Joko Widodo. But the $1.4 trln economy, Southeast Asia's biggest, faces a slowing China and crashing nickel prices. He needs to pick a credible finance minister fast.

Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers

14 Feb 2024

Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.

US markets grapple with mysterious contradictions

13 Feb 2024

The S&P 500 Index hit new heights, led by tech stocks. At the same time, derivatives traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates. The latter will not happen without a recession. One of the camps is destined to be wrong. Equity investors should root for slower rate cuts.

Europe’s wilting bourses get fresh cause to unite

12 Feb 2024

The likely de-listings of Italy’s Saras and Tod’s add to a wider exodus from euro zone stock exchanges. Part of the problem is a lack of new European companies to replace them. But Europe could also help itself if its equity market rules and trading were less fragmented.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

NY bank’s slide exposes regulatory booby trap

7 Feb 2024

A credit-rating downgrade adds to the misery of investors in $3 bln New York Community Bancorp, whose shares have more than halved in a month. A plan to rebuild its balance sheet will take many months. Watchdogs, who can’t afford for fear to take root, face a different timeline.

Apple’s AI absence may be its advantage

1 Feb 2024

Microsoft and Alphabet pepper quarterly results with the promise of artificial intelligence. The $2.9 trln Apple barely mentions it. The risk is a giant missed opportunity. But its gadgets may indirectly benefit, and without the ballooning capital expenditure at peers like Meta.

Basketball-maker will bounce back from IPO brick

1 Feb 2024

Amer Sports sold shares at $13 apiece, below its $16 to $18 range, valuing the owner of the Wilson, Salomon and Arc’teryx brands at just $6 billion. The steep discount to Lululemon, Nike and On partly stems from overblown fears about China. Buying now should be a slam dunk.

Maxed-out shoppers put fire under Fed’s status quo

31 Jan 2024

American consumers are powering the economy. But their spendthrift ways are a big concern for central bank Chair Jay Powell. Credit card balances have just recorded the biggest jump on record and now top $1 trln. Rates are steady for now. The next move will be much riskier.

Economic slack gives Bailey cover to cut rates

31 Jan 2024

The market wants the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs soon. Governor Andrew Bailey is set to keep them steady on Thursday because inflation remains high. Yet sub-par economic performance in the next few years could pave the way for easier monetary policy from May.

Close the Volcker playbook and open Greenspan’s

30 Jan 2024

Fed Chair Jay Powell wisely embraced Paul Volcker’s inflation-fighting approach from the early 1980s and quickly raised borrowing costs. With price pressures abating, it’s time to change tactics. Leaning into Alan Greenspan’s tactical 1995 interest rate cuts makes more sense now.

Shipping giants can withstand Red Sea crisis

30 Jan 2024

Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal are slowing global trade. In this Exchange podcast, Zvi Schreiber, CEO of shipping platform Freightos, discusses how the sector was caught by surprise, but excess container ships and more air cargo capacity are helping limit the immediate pain.

Dismantling Evergrande exposes Hong Kong-China gap

29 Jan 2024

A court in the financial hub has ordered the world’s most indebted developer to liquidate after talks with offshore creditors collapsed. Yet how this will be enforced on the mainland, where most of Evergrande’s assets are, is unclear. The experience of HNA may offer some clues.

Revamp of the world order will have to wait

29 Jan 2024

Developing countries last week called for a rethink of global governance. While it’s possible to imagine an order more conducive to peace, justice and prosperity, the chances of creating it are slim. Better to shore up the existing multilateral system and wait for better times.

Take China’s easing signal with a pinch of caution

25 Jan 2024

Beijing is releasing $140 bln of liquidity at banks, trimming some lending rates, and talking up measures to boost the appeal of stocks. It is also pressing on rebalancing the world’s second largest economy. In a grand overhaul, short-term pain can only be managed to a point.