Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

BoE gears up to unnecessarily prolong worker pain

20 Mar 2024

The Bank of England is set to keep rates steady because it wants to see slower wage growth before easing policy. But pay rises are already falling and won’t cause inflation. The central bank could help 30 mln employees, and 11 mln borrowers, by cutting borrowing costs sooner.

Crypto’s roaring comeback may be harder to undo

19 Mar 2024

Bitcoin’s price broke its record, nearly two years after crypto exchange FTX went bust. In this Exchange podcast, Andreessen Horowitz’s Arianna Simpson explains why digital assets and the ledgers underpinning them are inextricable, and what’s driving new excitement around both.

Mexican wave of nearshoring firms is all at sea

19 Mar 2024

The country’s proximity to the US could make it a preferred destination as multinationals move away from Asia. Companies like Merck and Tesla are building factories there but, so far, manufacturing is not growing. With relocations costs soaring, an economic boom looks elusive.

Japan’s first step to new normal is the easiest

19 Mar 2024

The central bank raised interest rates, ending 26 years of unconventional stimulus. Policymakers hinted they will keep borrowing costs steady for a while but the pressure to curb inflation, rather than unleash its virtues, may rise fast. The hard work for the country starts now.

China property’s Enron damp squib may yet surprise

19 Mar 2024

Markets shrugged as a watchdog accused Evergrande of inflating sales by $78 bln over a two-year period. The US firm’s 2001 demise, by contrast, had broad impacts. More fallout in China is likely, potentially ensnaring banks and auditors like PwC. Investors are too sanguine.

Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin

18 Mar 2024

To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.

ECB’s money drain has silver lining for markets

14 Mar 2024

The European Central Bank is ready to exit its huge stimulus programme. With 4.7 trln euros of bonds on its books, that will take time but policymakers want few surprises. A new regime of setting rates and relying on banks to ask for loans will wean them off cheap money.

Japan’s rate shift will hit zombie firms hardest

14 Mar 2024

The central bank could end an era of negative borrowing costs as early as next week. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists argue that large companies are ready for the tightening, but many struggling small businesses could hit the wall even if policymakers go slow.

UK monarchy suffers an impairment to its goodwill

13 Mar 2024

A poorly edited photo of the Princess of Wales has fanned a firestorm of speculation about her health. If Britain’s royal family were a listed company, it would have a fiduciary duty to provide more detail. While the hit to its brand equity is not visible, it’s still tangible.

Capital Calls: Small Fed windows

12 Mar 2024

Concise views on global finance: US consumer prices rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, prompting traders to rein in hopes for rate cuts. The agency’s Chair Jerome Powell could have avoided that by guiding markets towards a higher number.

EU’s spending snags spoil joint borrowing success

12 Mar 2024

Europe’s 800 bln euro stimulus plan is stuck. The bonds that finance it sell like hotcakes, but so far it has paid out only 225 bln euros as countries struggle with projects. Unless the bloc can show it can use the money it raises from investors, it will lose much-needed funds.

Escaping Hong Kong’s value trap is far from cheap

12 Mar 2024

L'Occitane, Samsonite and ESR may be buyout targets as stocks languish in the financial hub. These businesses are broadly doing well and could command a higher multiple on another bourse now or later. That means shareholders can demand a generous premium from any buyer.

Korea Inc’s Japan makeover only scratches surface

12 Mar 2024

South Korea is copying its neighbour's corporate reform drive to lift anaemic valuations. But voluntary disclosures and tax breaks are unlikely to spur change among chaebol like Samsung which dominate the $1.9 trln stock market. Seoul's push requires more stick than carrot.

IMF’s Egypt bailout chooses hope over experience

11 Mar 2024

Cairo has received an $8 bln IMF loan after a $35 bln cash injection from the United Arab Emirates. If President Sisi does not justify the Fund’s optimism about reforms, a painful restructuring of the $165 bln external debt lies ahead.

Europe will struggle to unite if Ukraine loses

11 Mar 2024

Jean Monnet, one of the European Union’s founders, predicted it ‘will be forged in crises’. Russian success in Ukraine could be the wake-up call the bloc needs to forge closer security ties. But it could also fragment under the strain. All the more reason to ramp up support now.

China can afford to holster monetary bazooka

11 Mar 2024

Consumer prices rose 0.7% in February, the most in nearly a year but far below Beijing’s 3% target. Still, the central bank's piecemeal easing is starting to add up. Expected US rate cuts will make it easier for China to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary doom loop.

Nickel rout is energy-transition warning for West

8 Mar 2024

Prices of the battery metal have halved in a year, leaving many mines unprofitable or mothballed. Indonesia’s China-backed industry now dominates. Piecemeal aid and a green premium push are unlikely to alter that. Absent smart planning, copper and lithium are vulnerable, too.

Lower rates, office return will ease property pain

7 Mar 2024

The post-pandemic boom in hybrid work is causing trouble for banks that have lent heavily to office developers. But in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how losses may be limited if central banks bring borrowing costs down and bosses call employees back.

Slow growth puts ECB before Fed in rate-cut line

7 Mar 2024

The European Central Bank held borrowing costs but President Christine Lagarde suggested it might lower them in June. That could make her the first major central banker to ease policy, ahead of US Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell. Sadly, that’s only due to dire euro zone growth.

UK ‘non-dom’ slap is right move for wrong reason

6 Mar 2024

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt scrapped tax benefits for people living in the UK but officially domiciled abroad. That improves fiscal fairness and may raise over $3 bln per year. But the benefits are uncertain and the funds went to pre-election giveaways, not public services.