Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

India starts resembling China in unflattering ways

19 Dec 2024

Growth is slowing and allegations of interference in the West’s affairs are rising. Part of the narrative weighing on the world’s second-largest economy is applicable to its fifth largest. Even if similarities are exaggerated, the connection poses a threat to India’s moment.

Hot topics of 2024 will smoulder into new year

19 Dec 2024

Inflation in the United States, a struggling Chinese economy and Boeing’s existential challenges were among the stories that dominated this year. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why these issues – among others – will keep cropping up in 2025.

Labour and labour market point to slower BoE cuts

18 Dec 2024

The Bank of England is set to leave rates on hold this week. The economy is weak but pay growth is strong, keeping inflation above 2%. The government’s plans will boost GDP and prices in 2025. Until unemployment rises, Governor Andrew Bailey cannot ease as fast as foreign peers.

Donald Trump will meet his match in bond markets

18 Dec 2024

The president-elect’s bullying and bluster may steamroll any political resistance to tax cuts and tariff hikes. Like many world leaders before him, though, he’s about to feel the punch that debt buyers pack. They’ll beat back an inflationary agenda that imperils US finances.

Nissan-Honda merger would be far from cure-all

18 Dec 2024

Japan’s second- and third-largest carmakers may be mulling a tie-up which might also include Mitsubishi. Cost cuts could bolster dismal margins for the $50 bln trio ahead of US tariffs. But as rival Stellantis's woes show, M&A cannot produce vehicles customers want to buy.

Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance

16 Dec 2024

Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.

Yuan’s fall would be a gift to Bank of Japan

16 Dec 2024

Talk of devaluation by Beijing to blunt any impact of an aggressive ratcheting up of US tariffs is jolting currency markets primed for a trade war. A drop in the renminbi would weigh on Japan's yen especially. That's not necessarily bad news for Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Berlin can curb but not stop a Romania-TikTok mess

12 Dec 2024

The app is under scrutiny for enabling meddling in Bucharest’s elections. Given a blanket TikTok ban is beyond the EU’s remit, Germany’s February poll may go the same way. Yet Berlin could also coordinate better with tech platforms ahead of time – which Romania didn’t.

French political stalemate threatens its economy

12 Dec 2024

The country is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. That will make it hard to cut the large budget deficit. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth.

New Macau leader deals casino hub a promising hand

12 Dec 2024

Sam Hou Fai takes charge as the gambling enclave struggles to regain its pre-pandemic lustre. He is the first to hail from mainland China and can try to deepen Macau's ties to neighboring Guangdong, including more transport links. Business at Galaxy, SJM and peers could benefit.

India needs more, not fewer, powerful tycoons

12 Dec 2024

US charges against Gautam Adani expose the country’s reliance on too few industrialists to meet its strategic goals. Rather than prompting a breakup of conglomerates, the saga may nudge the government to share the spoils of the $4 trln economy with a bigger group of chosen ones.

Golden visas are a leaden answer to economic needs

10 Dec 2024

Hungary is the latest country to launch a residency-by-investment scheme. Such plans appeal to rich foreigners. But they add less than 0.5% to GDP, inflate property prices and irk locals. As geopolitical risks spur demand, governments will have to either charge more or nix them.

ECB’s rearview mirror ignores economic crash ahead

10 Dec 2024

The European Central Bank is set to cut rates by just 25 basis points this week because GDP is growing at 0.4% - the quickest since 2022. But inflation is subdued and the outlook for consumers, businesses and exports is weak. The euro zone’s grim future warrants stronger action.

Nvidia probe lets China have cake and eat it

10 Dec 2024

Beijing has started an antitrust investigation into the $3.4 trln firm. Coming after more US tech curbs on the country, the motive seems political. But Nvidia's AI chip dominance means monopoly concerns can't be dismissed. And the decision may resonate with regulators elsewhere.

China’s wealth pledge will face tough sceptics

10 Dec 2024

In a key meeting, Beijing identified stabilising stock and property prices as a top task in 2025. It recognises that people will spend more if they feel rich. This implies a policy bottom for both markets. Yet observers are forecasting a huge range of outcomes in the coming year.

Syrian regime change puts focus on Trump and Iran

9 Dec 2024

The overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad is the latest setback for his supporters in Tehran. President-elect Donald Trump had already pledged to get tougher on the Islamic Republic. Its weakness may embolden him further, with volatile results for the region and the oil price.

Putin faces hard choices if Ukraine war drags on

9 Dec 2024

Though Russia can probably keep fighting for a long time, the costs will mount – especially if inflation rises or the oil price falls. A credible Western plan to support Kyiv could bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and help secure a decent ceasefire.

Months of chaos will cripple France for years

6 Dec 2024

PM Michel Barnier’s budget was only the first step in a plan to stabilise public debt at 116% of GDP by 2028. His government’s collapse will make businesses and households even more reluctant to invest and spend, hitting growth. The country is headed for long-term economic pain.

Global carmakers redefine success in China

6 Dec 2024

GM is shrinking to mediocrity with a rejig and roughly $3 bln writedown on the value of its Chinese joint ventures. International brands once chased chunky sales in the People’s Republic, now they aim for profitability on a smaller scale - and to learn from local peers.

Tariff turnabouts send US corporate heads spinning

5 Dec 2024

Donald Trump has threatened import levies ranging from 10% to 100% on Mexico, China, South Africa and everywhere in between. Based on recent earnings calls, CEOs see the president-elect’s gyrations as negotiating tactics. They’ll nevertheless be forced to prepare for the worst.