Monetary Policy

US jobs data can spare Fed rate ratchet

10 Mar 2023

A larger-than-expected gain of 311,000 jobs might stoke inflation-fighters’ fears, but slowing wage growth and returning workers show a labor market in the sweet spot. That gives policymakers weighing further hikes in borrowing costs the opportunity to take a patient approach.

“No landing” talk leaves stocks in no man’s land

6 Mar 2023

Bond investors worry that strong economic data will keep borrowing costs high. That’s pushed yields on 10-year German debt to an 11-year high. Yet buoyant equity markets are pricing in a dream scenario of faster growth and falling interest rates. They are in for a rude awakening.

Why the dollar keeps winning in the global economy

28 Feb 2023

The greenback’s share of foreign exchange reserves is at 59%, a two-decade low. Challengers to its role as the world’s means of exchange abound. Yet the globalised financial system bolsters its lynchpin status. Absent major shifts in capital flows, the U.S. currency will thrive.

A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold

27 Feb 2023

Investors shunned the country as the president let inflation rip. He strained relations with the West by cosying up to Putin and did too little on climate change. An opposition win in coming elections, more likely after the recent earthquake, may change all that, says Hugo Dixon.

ECB’s inflation-fighting hose may have a blockage

20 Feb 2023

The central bank has hiked rates by 3 percentage points since July, pushing up corporate borrowing costs and squeezing demand for credit. Yet firms and households have longer-term debt than in the past. That means tighter monetary policy will take a while to cool the economy.

How central banks got the inflation crisis wrong

14 Feb 2023

Western policymakers have hiked interest rates by more than 10 percentage points since 2021. Yet prices remain high. In this Exchange podcast, Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, explains how rate-setters failed and what they should do next.

How investors can profit from Fed-ECB divergence

7 Feb 2023

As America flirts with a recession, the U.S. central bank is set to stop tightening as interest rates near 5%. That will leave ECB President Christine Lagarde as the West’s most hawkish policymaker. The transatlantic split is an opportunity for traders who bet on European assets.

Markets gulp down central banks’ half-full glass

2 Feb 2023

Three of the world’s most prominent central banks raised interest rates to multi-year highs this week. Investors loved it, reading the decisions as the beginning of the end for monetary tightening. Policymakers, and stubborn inflation, might prove them wrong.

India signs up banks for a pre-election campaign

2 Feb 2023

New Delhi is topping up a loan backstop scheme for small firms. The plan will drive $24 bln of funds to a bruised set of borrowers that are also a key voting bloc in polls next year. The plan may cause banks some pain, and it risks entrenching structural economic snarls.

Bottling U.S. inflation could cost workers dearly

1 Feb 2023

Winning the battle against rising prices could swell America’s jobless ranks by nearly 1 million, if the Fed’s own estimates prove correct. That assumes it remains relentless in the quest for inflation of 2%. But given the cost, it’s not clear that such precision is needed.

Sick Britain no longer needs Dr Bailey’s medicine

1 Feb 2023

The Bank of England is likely to raise its key interest rate to 4% on Thursday. That would be a step too far. The UK is nearing a recession, consumers are suffering and inflation is abating. The higher Governor Andrew Bailey hikes rates, the more drastic cuts will likely follow.

Capital Calls: McDonald’s, Spotify

31 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: The burger chain’s comparable sales growth despite rising prices proves there’s pricing power at the bottom of the market; shares in the $21 bln music-streaming service leapt after founder Daniel Ek unveiled rapid subscriber growth.

Three carry trades for a new monetary policy era

27 Jan 2023

Central banks’ moves mean that investors borrowing money in yen and placing it in U.S. assets – a once-popular “carry trade” – are no longer onto a sure-fire winner. They can do better by shorting the euro and investing in Mexico, Brazil or Hungary.

Bank of Japan has learnt danger of half-measures

18 Jan 2023

The central bank’s decision to stay put on interest rates saw the yen soften and hurt 10-year bond yields. Last month’s surprise tweak to bond trading bands failed to impress traders. Inaction may be painful and expensive, but muddled economic signals make it understandable.

Expansionist dreams threaten ECB digital euro plan

17 Jan 2023

As the European Central Bank develops its own online currency, politicians want a big say. Hostility from some rubs against the ECB’s cautious enthusiasm. Yet if political forces push a digital euro to be more global than the ECB is ready for, it may weaken financial stability.

European inflation control is a double-edged sword

6 Jan 2023

Prices in Spain or France have risen less than in other big euro zone economies. One reason is lower dependence on Russian energy, but government price controls also helped smooth the shock. The risk is that suppressed inflation will catch up after the crisis subsides.

Central bankers will shift inflation goalposts

19 Dec 2022

The Federal Reserve, ECB and others insist they’re determined to get price increases back down to 2% a year. Though the target is arbitrary, changing it is tricky. But stubborn inflation means monetary authorities will have to find ways to tolerate rising prices for longer.

ECB, BoE will fight to regain anti-inflation mojo

15 Dec 2022

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points, less than recent jumbo increases. Recession fears, and the central banks’ initial hesitancy, are making investors sceptical of a sustained tightening. Sticky inflation will prove them wrong.

Inflation confusion increases odds of ECB mistake

30 Nov 2022

Euro zone prices rose a less-than-expected 10% in November, yet remained stubbornly high after stripping out fuel. That leaves central bankers in a pickle. To burnish their hawkish credentials with a sceptical market, they may keep tightening policy even as the economy falters.

Capital Calls: Fuzzy Fedspeak, Dr. Martens

24 Nov 2022

Concise views on global finance: The U.S. central bank has left traders guessing the meaning of the word “various”; shares in the recently listed British bootmaker fell 20% after sales missed expectations, and a warning that its investment needs will hurt profitability.