Monetary Policy

Rate hikes will help U.S. pensions, but not enough

27 Dec 2016

If bond yields head higher, that will cut cash-strapped public retirement funds' sky-high liabilities. Weak returns and weaker-kneed politicians mean relief could be fleeting, however, especially if the economy falters. Illinois and Dallas are canaries in a $1 trln coal mine.

Bank of Korea stuck between Park and a hard place

15 Dec 2016

The day after the Fed raised rates, the South Korean central bank kept them unchanged for a sixth straight month. The won can take a hit, but the country's sagging economy could use some stimulating. That's especially true as a president-less government creates added uncertainty.

New president may force hawkishness on 2017 Fed

14 Dec 2016

The central bank nudged interest rates up again after a year's pause. Janet Yellen and colleagues previously sounded cautious but that was before the Trump bump. If bond yields, inflation and stock prices continue to rise, the Fed will be under pressure to make quicker increases.

Even if Yellen remains, Trump can reshape Fed

13 Dec 2016

The governors of the U.S. central bank are gathering for the last markets meeting of this year. The chair plans to stay until 2018. But with two vacancies out of seven and the potential for more to quit, the next president has a chance to tip the political balance of the group.

Draghi’s market first-aid kit ready for 2017

8 Dec 2016

The ECB boss is extending the central bank’s asset buying until the end of next year but will unexpectedly reduce purchases from April. It may sound muddled. In fact, these and other changes give Draghi more scope to support markets throughout a politically fraught year.

“Irrational exuberance” gets a new lease on life

5 Dec 2016

After Alan Greenspan coined the phrase exactly 20 years ago, it took three years before the tech bubble burst. Markets are spirited again, by low rates and Trump. As the Fed acts and the president-elect pushes his policies, asset values may face a quicker reckoning this time.

Markets’ 1980s revival looks a flawed throwback

25 Nov 2016

The prospect of tax cuts and higher interest rates in America invite comparison with the era of Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker. U.S. bond yields and the dollar have started soaring, as they did then. But the threat of protectionism makes history an unreliable guide to the future.

Trump may make Mario Draghi great again

10 Nov 2016

European bonds are tracking the rise in U.S. yields sparked by President-elect Donald Trump's spending plans. This helpfully expands the number of bonds that the ECB boss can buy. U.S. protectionism would also hurt the euro zone economy and push Draghi back into the limelight.

Britain better off if Carney stays

31 Oct 2016

The governor’s tenure has become a test of the Bank of England’s status. If he left in 2018 the decision would spook foreign investors and embolden the bank’s domestic critics. Extending his term would signal that the British government still values independent monetary policy.

ECB taper whimper is the most low growth permits

5 Oct 2016

Reports that the European Central Bank may reduce asset purchases caused a blip up in bond yields. But it's a far cry from the 2013 U.S. tantrum, and rightly so. Weak growth and insufficient public investment will force monetary policy to stay loose despite diminishing returns.

Hadas: Central banks play with monetary absurdity

23 Sep 2016

Monetary authorities have taken recourse in increasingly empty promises. The Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda has taken this verbal drama to a new and ultimately dangerous level. Central banks could rely on deeds, not words, if their tools and targets were more realistic.

Fed “forward guidance” blows too much smoke

21 Sep 2016

The U.S. central bank again declined to raise rates, leaving what hedgie Dan Loeb called the crack cocaine of loose monetary policy in place. The Fed counts talking to the market as one of its tools. But its story has changed so much that it might do better being less chatty.

BOJ buys time and friends with yield-based reboot

21 Sep 2016

The Bank of Japan has ditched its money-printing goals, pledging instead to keep 10-year interest rates at zero until inflation exceeds 2 pct. The central bank’s latest overhaul means it is less likely to run short of debt to buy, and eases the financial sector’s pain.

Government bonds signal confusion, not cheer

19 Sep 2016

Yields on long-term sovereign debt have perked up across the developed world. Normally that's a sign of optimism. Yet borrowing costs remain ultra-low. The upward drift most likely reflects uncertainty about central bank policy and worries about the effects of negative rates.

Scarce bonds and bank pain limit BOJ’s next move

19 Sep 2016

The Bank of Japan faces a conundrum in its battle to revive inflation. It can’t keep buying $800 bln of bonds a year for much longer, but negative rates are deeply unpopular. This week’s big policy review might require the BOJ to make other concessions to the financial industry.

Global bond rout gives Draghi a reprieve

14 Sep 2016

The rise in yields as prices fall makes more German debt eligible for ECB purchases, under its own arcane rules. President Mario Draghi is still, though, running out of bonds to buy. Canny market timing is a poor substitute for a real solution: Germany could simply borrow more.

Fed governor’s rate view helps her Treasury pitch

13 Sep 2016

Lael Brainard struck a dovish note on interest rates ahead of the central bank’s next meeting. She’s also a leading candidate to be Treasury secretary in a Clinton administration. Her soothing words could help mollify progressives suspicious of her past role in trade deals.

Chancellor: No hyperinflation, just Weimar malaise

13 Sep 2016

Central-bank money printing hasn't produced the spiralling prices that plagued the Weimar Republic. It has, though, delivered some of the social disquiet of 1920s Germany. Policymakers urging more extreme monetary actions need to exercise caution lest they get what they wish for.

Yellen defends Fed tools but is wary of using them

26 Aug 2016

The U.S. central bank chief stood up for techniques like asset purchases, amid political attacks on the Fed's powers. But keeping lawmakers on side could constrain Yellen's choices. One example is her apparent reluctance to raise interest rates despite a strengthening case.

Chancellor: Zero-coupon bonds are not a joke

26 Aug 2016

On April Fools' 10 years ago Breakingviews suggested Washington fund itself with perpetual bonds paying no interest. The idea is now being seriously touted by some monetary policymakers. For households with cash and other assets that would evaporate, this is no laughing matter.