Monetary Policy

Banks draw short straw from ECB

26 Oct 2017

The central bank will trim its monthly bond purchases but promised to keep buying for longer. That balances the demands of those who oppose money printing with the wishes of rate-setters who fear growth is still fragile. The losers are banks, whose negative rate pain will endure.

PBOC’s Zhou seeks lasting sway with debt warning

19 Oct 2017

The central bank governor is suddenly ramping up calls for reform and warning of a possible “Minsky moment.” With the 19th Party Congress in full swing, the soon-to-depart 69-year-old no doubt hopes to burnish his legacy, and ensure a like-minded successor fills his shoes.

Taylor-led Fed would be dangerous in manifold ways

19 Oct 2017

In addition to the Stanford economist's dogmatic bent for a programmatic monetary policy, John Taylor backs bigger regulatory changes than others in the running to be the next U.S. central bank chief. His laissez-faire ideas about policing Wall Street are loaded with risk.

Indonesia’s slowdown belies Jakarta’s reform spin

18 Oct 2017

Eight interest-rate cuts by Indonesia’s central bank since January 2016 are getting little traction with investors or consumers. As growth slows, the urgency is rising for President Joko Widodo to accelerate infrastructure projects, attack corruption and create well paid jobs.

Heads or tails, Mark Carney loses

17 Oct 2017

British inflation has hit 3 percent, the highest level since 2012. No wonder the Bank of England chief is hinting policy rates may soon rise. Carney’s problem is that he will be criticised for hurting a slow-growing economy if he hikes and accused of inconsistency if he delays.

Cox: Next Fed chair will need unusually thick skin

16 Oct 2017

The debate over who will lead the central bank is narrowly about hawks and doves. Policy matters, but the broader economic benefits of the Fed’s relative independence may count for more. Whoever gets the job will have to resist Trump's bullying – and stop doing Congress's job.

Companies WACC central bankers on yields

10 Oct 2017

Rate-setters have engineered ultra-low borrowing costs and the risk premium on stocks is down. In theory, that lowers the bar for business investments. In practice, corporate hurdle rates have barely budged for decades. It’s a reality check for policymakers trying to fan growth.

Hadas: Road to calm finance is unsafe at any speed

4 Oct 2017

A decade after the last financial crisis began, central banks are finally moving to normalise interest rates and money supply. With governments weak and banks and businesses hooked on easy credit, risks are high. There’s a better way to run this system, but few seem interested.

India will miss its top banking chief

4 Oct 2017

Arundhati Bhattacharya’s four years atop the country’s largest lender have seen bad debt rise and the shares underperform. But she has made State Bank of India the best of an ailing bunch and stood up to errant tycoons. She sets a high bar for any successor.

Jerome Powell makes for a Goldilocks Fed choice

3 Oct 2017

The central bank governor is less hawkish than other candidates on President Trump's shortlist, including Kevin Warsh. Powell also aligns with the White House on regulatory reform. And his confirmation would be easier. Those factors could make him a Fed chair who is just right.

Italy’s 5-Star puts respectable face on radicalism

25 Sep 2017

The protest movement, doing well in opinion polls, has named a 31-year-old lawmaker as its leader. Luigi Di Maio’s cool appeal contrasts with founder Beppe Grillo’s vitriolic style and may win over moderate voters in 2018. But going mainstream could undermine its basic appeal.

What Carney can learn from Yellen

21 Sep 2017

Fed Chair Janet Yellen showed rate-setters can shock markets even when they stick to the script. That’s a lesson for the Bank of England’s Mark Carney, who has talked up a rate rise this year. Like her, he may have to hike without having solved a host of economic puzzles.

Dixon: No escape from debtors’ prison for Greece

11 Sep 2017

Alexis Tsipras is desperate to avoid surveillance of his actions by the country’s creditors when its third bailout ends next August. The best the Greek prime minister can hope for is to move from a high-security unit to an open prison – and only if he behaves.

Review: Bank of England’s present echoes in past

8 Sep 2017

The Old Lady has evolved from government lender to modern central bank, but familiar themes recur in David Kynaston’s vivid history. Arguments over independence, monetary policy, bank bailouts and the City of London’s future are as timeworn as the institution itself.

5-Star’s softer stance on euro is clever tactic

4 Sep 2017

The radical Italian party sees a referendum on euro membership as a last resort, one of its top lawmakers says. The apparent U-turn could help soothe markets and business before upcoming elections. There’s room to backtrack, but 5-Star is holding up and getting more nuanced.

Yellen sets out her stall for Trump

25 Aug 2017

In what may be her last Jackson Hole set piece, the Fed chair defended tighter regulation since the crisis 10 years ago and called for continued U.S. leadership in global forums. The president wants to unwind the reforms. It's a factor as he considers whether to reappoint Yellen.

How the Bank of Japan can keep the money flowing

25 Aug 2017

The disappearance of inflation is the big debate for central bankers in Jackson Hole this weekend. That puts Japan in an uncomfortable spotlight. The BOJ is running short of government bonds to buy - but could do more by becoming more creative in its asset purchases.

Central bank confab may be calm before the storm

24 Aug 2017

With the U.S. and global economies in good shape, Yellen can enjoy what may be her last show in Jackson Hole. But fiscal fights in Congress, Fed bond sales and doubts about her future loom. The ECB nears its own taper even as low inflation confounds. Gray clouds are moving in.

ECB weakens Italy doom loop by bending bond rules

16 Aug 2017

The European Central Bank is buying more Italian bonds than its rules allow. That helps lower the country’s borrowing costs and allows its banks to cut exposure to their sovereign. With elections and political risks looming, it may have to take an ever more pragmatic approach.

Euro rally will only speed its own reversal

21 Jul 2017

The single currency has hit a two-year high against the U.S. dollar. That will depress import prices when inflation is still too low. Any hint that a stronger exchange rate will prompt the European Central Bank to leave monetary policy loose for longer will push it down again.