Monetary Policy

U.S. rate hike risks global fallout

21 Mar 2018

Gulf states, Hong Kong and others that peg their currency to the dollar worry that copying Fed moves will dent growth. But with five more hikes expected by the end of 2019, not doing so risks the ire of financial markets. It's a tricky dance that even China may be dragged into.

Review: The flimsy finances behind China’s miracle

9 Mar 2018

The People’s Republic has long defied the economic doom-mongers. In “China’s Great Wall of Debt”, Dinny McMahon exposes the fragility and contradictions of the country’s growth model. It’s a detailed and original reality check on the latest bout of China hype.

Viewsroom: Trump slaps tariff fear on markets

8 Mar 2018

Imposing levies on steel and aluminum has lost the president his economic adviser, ex-Goldman No. 2 Gary Cohn. That has shocked investors out of complacency. Also: Italy’s elections leave fringe parties in charge. And big deals may be back on the agenda for the mining industry.

Mario Draghi faces tricky exit from bond buying

8 Mar 2018

The European Central Bank president has started laying the groundwork to end three years of asset purchases. But there’s a growing danger that his careful preparations will be thrown off course by U.S. protectionism, euro zone politics, or unwelcome market moves.

Trump’s next Fed pick in limbo for wrong reason

20 Feb 2018

Economist Marvin Goodfriend’s accession to the board of governors hangs in the balance after senators voiced concern about his past proposals to depreciate cash. Concern about his hawkish inflation views is fair. But penalizing him for creative thinking on a tricky issue is not.

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda bags a tricky second term

16 Feb 2018

Continuity in Japan contrasts with a changing of the guard at U.S. and European central banks. Haruhiko Kuroda is unlikely to wind up asset-buying or ramp it up a lot. But he must handle the backdraft from policy changes elsewhere and has limited scope to fight the next crisis.

Hints of inflation pose litmus test for Powell Fed

14 Feb 2018

U.S. consumer prices accelerated in January as the cost of food, housing, fuel and medical care rose. That’s not all bad after a decade of sub-target inflation. The fear is that new Fed boss Jerome Powell will step up the pace of rate hikes. The risk of policy error is rising.

Japan’s economy is in Goldilocks mode

14 Feb 2018

The country is enjoying its longest growth streak since the 1980s. Unlike in the United States, wages and inflation remain subdued, so monetary policy can stay very easy. That “not-too-hot, not-too-cold” mix is good news for investors, even if it stores up problems for later.

Bond market tightening complicates Powell’s task

31 Jan 2018

U.S. Treasury yields rose to near four-year highs even as the Fed left policy unchanged at Janet Yellen’s last meeting. A fresh growth spurt and worsening deficit outlook pose challenges for successor Jerome Powell. Hiking in a rising-rate environment is riskier for the economy.

Fed’s inflation-target rethink dodges big question

29 Jan 2018

Some U.S. rate-setters wonder about their 2 percent goal – both its level and whether it’s more a ceiling or a long-term average. The debate is welcome but could be even more radical. Today’s real issue is whether central bankers can fully explain, let alone control, inflation.

Chancellor: Bitcoin will never be real money

9 Jan 2018

The leading crypto-currency has monetary characteristics. But without state backing and a means for circulating credit in the capitalist economy it lacks the nature of money and is destined to fail. That’s why some more modest bitcoin alternatives, like ripple, look more promising.

German workers may frustrate ECB’s inflation hopes

9 Jan 2018

Industrial staff in Europe’s biggest economy are striking for higher pay. They may, however, trim wage demands in return for flexible working. If pay pressures fail to flare in such a tight labour market, the European Central Bank can hardly count on them surfacing elsewhere.

Tight U.S. labor market may finally move Fed

5 Jan 2018

December’s relatively weak jobs and wage growth gives policymakers a breather. But with 2.1 mln positions created in 2017 and unemployment historically low, long-awaited pay increases - along with new tax cuts - could soon start stoking inflation. That would force the Fed’s hand.

U.S. junk bonds are time bomb with a long fuse

29 Dec 2017

Low default rates, a lack of alternatives and foreign demand will support high-yield bonds in 2018. Yet with spreads near record lows, covenants weak and leverage rising, the seeds of a bear market are plentiful. Investors should keep a wary eye for the first shoots of trouble.

Fed calls time on monetary and regulatory activism

21 Dec 2017

After nearly a decade of zero rates, asset purchases and tighter rules, the central bank is stepping back. Janet Yellen started the trend as the crisis receded, but her chair apparent promises a real laissez-faire shift. Markets may struggle to adapt to life without a Powell put.

Portugal beats Italy in bond market pecking order

15 Dec 2017

The country that needed a bailout in 2011 can borrow for less than its larger peer. Investors’ preference for Portuguese debt reflects its more vibrant economy, and messy Italian politics. Lisbon can keep outshining Rome, so long as lax bond markets don’t encourage bad habits.

Hadas: The mystery of lost competition

6 Dec 2017

The U.S. tax cut is expected to boost corporate earnings but not lower prices or raise wages. That implies there’s too much tacit collusion for basic economic theory to work as designed. Limited price competition is great for shareholder value, but bad for the economy.

Cox: Trump bump aside, U.S. stocks lag in 2017

30 Nov 2017

The president has unprecedentedly staked his political colors to the mast of rising equity prices, calling the S&P's rally a validation of his policies. Yet most other markets around the world have done even better. There are bigger forces at work than U.S. corporate tax rates.

Indian economy shaking off Modi’s shock therapy

30 Nov 2017

Growth of 6.3 pct last quarter suggests fallout from the premier's policy pileup is fading. He’s leading a bold drive to improve the way India is governed. Getting a few more things right, like the resolution of bad debt, is a precondition to turn this into a solid economic run.

Yellen gives Congress parting shot on growth, debt

29 Nov 2017

The outgoing Fed boss warned of growing deficit risks just as lawmakers weigh tax cuts that would exacerbate it. It’s also up to politicians to improve education, investment and infrastructure spending. Her message of central bank limitations is one her successor will echo.