Monetary Policy

Britain is making a mess of replacing Mark Carney

3 Sep 2018

The Bank of England boss may extend his term for a second time, keeping him at the central bank beyond June 2019. That could offer comfort to investors worried about Brexit. But it would suggest the government is struggling to find a good successor. That’s a bad signal to send.

As Trump goes low, Fed goes high

24 Aug 2018

Jerome Powell sees little risk of economic overheating, indicating the Fed will raise rates again next month. The U.S. central bank chief’s first public comments since the U.S. president said he wasn’t thrilled with Powell’s policies suggest he’s largely impervious to Trump.

Britain can limit no-deal Brexit currency crisis

23 Aug 2018

The UK is publishing contingency plans for a no-deal EU exit. Its unspoken parachute, however, is Britain’s vast pile of overseas assets, which cushion a sterling crash and calm solvency fears. The bad news is that the impact on the City of London could erode that defence.

Capital retreat turns light on Turkey lookalikes

17 Aug 2018

Other emerging economies also have lots of foreign currency debt or inadequate FX reserves. Some, such as South Africa and Argentina, are already hurting. Breakingviews ranks the countries that look the most vulnerable as flows to riskier markets go into reverse.

Viewsroom: Turkey’s financial crisis may spread

16 Aug 2018

The feud between President Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump over steel tariffs threatens to turn other emerging markets cold. Breakingviews columnists discuss the global impact of Turkey’s currency meltdown. Plus: A bad bank in China gets whacked by political risk.

Hadas: Turkey shows damage of fading world order

14 Aug 2018

The country and its foreign creditors have had an irresponsible relationship for decades. The latest crisis is different because one-time supporters like the U.S., EU and IMF are less willing to help, and there are no credible replacements. Prepare for more currency crises.

China’s stealth housing support is looking wobbly

14 Aug 2018

Officials are tweaking a $470 bln liquidity scheme by which the central bank effectively helps upgrade housing in smaller cities. Even a modest change could cause real estate markets to shudder. Little wonder that Chinese property developers tremble with every update.

Mark Carney raises rates from position of weakness

2 Aug 2018

The Bank of England governor nudged up borrowing costs even though growth is tepid and will suffer if Brexit goes badly. The economy’s speed limit has declined since the financial crisis and EU talks will take time to pan out. He had little choice, but may have to reverse course.

India central bank doubles down on inflation fight

1 Aug 2018

The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point even though manufacturing activity slowed in July. The hike may hamper economic growth but removes doubts about policymakers’ commitment to a relatively new inflation mandate. The trade-off is worthwhile.

Bank of Japan tries cheap way of imposing will

31 Jul 2018

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has pledged to keep rates very low for an extended period to calm investors’ concern that monetary policy may become less loose. The no-cost tactic to keep bond yields in check is born of necessity given how many assets the central bank is already buying.

Turkey misses easy chance to win credibility

24 Jul 2018

The lira slumped after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. With inflation at 14-year highs, there was every reason to tighten policy. Inaction will only reinforce investors’ concern that President Tayyip Erdogan’s distaste for higher rates is exerting undue influence.

Bank of Japan’s trial balloon shot down on runway

23 Jul 2018

Bond yields and the yen rose after Reuters reported the central bank was debating whether to scale back monetary stimulus. The move would be good for bank investors. But the scale of the market reaction and economic reality will make it hard for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to act.

Powell could help stiffen Congress’ spine on trade

17 Jul 2018

The Fed chief told lawmakers U.S. tariffs could threaten wage growth, but said it was unpredictable. Trade policy isn’t the Fed’s remit. Politicians are, though, worried at the early effects – yet they don’t want to anger Trump. A stronger steer from Powell might tip the balance.

Boring Chinese GDP data just got interesting again

16 Jul 2018

Economic growth clocked in at 6.7 pct in the second quarter from a year ago, down a tick from earlier this year. The figure has been uncannily steady, making it easy to shrug off. As a trade war and deleveraging bite harder, though, overseas investors should pay closer attention.

People’s Fed will provide armor in economic dip

21 Jun 2018

Chairman Jay Powell says he’ll speak in plain English about what the U.S. central bank does. He also admits the Fed doesn’t have all the answers. Demystifying it should strengthen its credibility. That will be handy when the economy turns and politicians are pointing fingers.

Argentina’s road to normality hits more zigzags

15 Jun 2018

The replacement of the central bank chief should help stabilize the peso, along with IMF assistance, despite Thursday’s 6 percent drop. It’s all part of President Macri’s long haul to turn his country’s economic pathology into more mainstream travails. It won’t be smooth going.

ECB staggered retreat from QE makes sense

14 Jun 2018

Europe’s central bank said it would stop adding to its bond portfolio, but hinted rates would stay low. The move averts fears quantitative easing will help Italy’s spendthrift government. But trade wars and a weak euro zone mean it has little choice but to keep its options open.

China starts trading debt for growth

14 Jun 2018

Shadow bank lending slowed sharply in May, and investment growth slipped to just 6.1 pct. For now, Beijing’s target of increasing GDP by 6.5 pct annually is safe. But officials will be thinking about creative ways to keep credit flowing, even as they discourage riskier behaviour.

Emerging markets can mostly dodge Fed bullet

13 Jun 2018

U.S. central-bank tightening has a history of causing global turmoil, as in the 1980s Latin debt crisis. But developing countries can largely handle a rate hike, with flush reserves and reduced dollar-based debt. Troubles in Argentina and Turkey are essentially home-brewed.

Hadas: This should be an anti-dollar moment

13 Jun 2018

Discontent with the world’s dominant currency is not new, but the Trump effect is something new. A trade circuit free from the U.S. president’s idiosyncratic America-first policies is urgently needed. The euro and renminbi can provide a base, but the politics are unpromising.