Monetary Policy

Italy tries risky EU gamble on budget

19 Oct 2018

The radical government wants to boost spending despite Brussels’ opposition. Lengthy procedures mean the spat will drag on until European Parliament elections in May. With radical parties gaining ground, the new Commission could be more lenient. But markets won’t wait that long.

Zimbabwe’s soaring stocks are a disaster signal

12 Oct 2018

Harare’s bourse leapt 66 percent this week even as global equities sagged. That reflects crumbling faith in cash and banks rather than confidence in the economy. The southern African country is in such a sorry state that shares are a rare source of sanctuary.

Markets are finally getting back to basics

11 Oct 2018

A slump in stocks slowed on Thursday, partly thanks to tame U.S. inflation data. American equity valuations are high, trade tensions and interest rates are rising, and earnings season is under way. Six months of steady tech-led gains may be giving way to the facts on the ground.

South Africa offers markets a too-friendly face

9 Oct 2018

New finance chief Tito Mboweni is one of the country’s most respected black economists, and his decade at the helm of the reserve bank adds credibility to Cyril Ramaphosa’s government. Ties to Goldman Sachs, though, could make him a target for political criticism at home.

Hadas: Nobel rewards pointless economic modelling

8 Oct 2018

Paul Romer won half the 2018 prize for recognising that education and governments help growth. William Nordhaus won the other half for condemning man-made climate change. Obvious? Maybe, but their work has complex equations. Unfortunately, these obscure more than they clarify.

Beijing’s $175 bln boost raises stimulus conundrum

8 Oct 2018

The central bank has pumped yet more cash into the system. Despite the debt hangover from its last spree, China does need more investment in green technology, healthcare and education. Economically, it can also afford to spend wisely. Haste, though, will make more waste.

Indonesia could grease economic wheels with oil

27 Sep 2018

Rising Brent prices and a falling rupiah have left the country choking on fuel costs. It was once an OPEC member and net exporter, but now imports almost $1 bln of crude monthly. Even with a fresh interest rate hike, Jakarta can take fiscal steps to ease its energy pain.

Hawkish Fed competes with trade as investor risk

26 Sep 2018

The U.S. central bank raised rates for the third time this year and will probably do so again in December. Meanwhile, its balance sheet is shrinking as Uncle Sam issues more debt. U.S. duties on $200 bln in Chinese goods also just hit. The confluence could upset markets.

Chancellor: The carry trade that followed Lehman

14 Sep 2018

The subprime crisis was born from yield-chasing in the Greenspan easy-money era. Even lower interest rates since the Lehman bust revived the global carry trade. Another maelstrom will be hard to avoid.

Turkey’s outbreak of common sense has limits

13 Sep 2018

The central bank has hiked rates more than markets expected, a welcome sign of independence after attacks by President Erdogan. The move may avoid a currency crisis, but Ankara’s political and economic vulnerabilities endure. And tensions between bank and state may get worse.

Guest view: Real rates matter more than inversion

13 Sep 2018

An inverted U.S. yield curve, with short-term interest rates higher than long-term ones, is seen as a recession warning. Myron Scholes and Ash Alankar of Janus Henderson Investments argue that monetary policymakers should worry more about the excess of yields over inflation.

Chancellor: The legacy of ultralow interest rates

10 Sep 2018

This first in a series of "Ten Years After" essays argues the bold monetary experiment that followed Lehman’s demise unleashed speculative manias, carry trades, populism born of inequality, capital misallocation and a China bubble that pose grave threats to the financial system.

Britain is making a mess of replacing Mark Carney

3 Sep 2018

The Bank of England boss may extend his term for a second time, keeping him at the central bank beyond June 2019. That could offer comfort to investors worried about Brexit. But it would suggest the government is struggling to find a good successor. That’s a bad signal to send.

As Trump goes low, Fed goes high

24 Aug 2018

Jerome Powell sees little risk of economic overheating, indicating the Fed will raise rates again next month. The U.S. central bank chief’s first public comments since the U.S. president said he wasn’t thrilled with Powell’s policies suggest he’s largely impervious to Trump.

Britain can limit no-deal Brexit currency crisis

23 Aug 2018

The UK is publishing contingency plans for a no-deal EU exit. Its unspoken parachute, however, is Britain’s vast pile of overseas assets, which cushion a sterling crash and calm solvency fears. The bad news is that the impact on the City of London could erode that defence.

Capital retreat turns light on Turkey lookalikes

17 Aug 2018

Other emerging economies also have lots of foreign currency debt or inadequate FX reserves. Some, such as South Africa and Argentina, are already hurting. Breakingviews ranks the countries that look the most vulnerable as flows to riskier markets go into reverse.

Viewsroom: Turkey’s financial crisis may spread

16 Aug 2018

The feud between President Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump over steel tariffs threatens to turn other emerging markets cold. Breakingviews columnists discuss the global impact of Turkey’s currency meltdown. Plus: A bad bank in China gets whacked by political risk.

Hadas: Turkey shows damage of fading world order

14 Aug 2018

The country and its foreign creditors have had an irresponsible relationship for decades. The latest crisis is different because one-time supporters like the U.S., EU and IMF are less willing to help, and there are no credible replacements. Prepare for more currency crises.

China’s stealth housing support is looking wobbly

14 Aug 2018

Officials are tweaking a $470 bln liquidity scheme by which the central bank effectively helps upgrade housing in smaller cities. Even a modest change could cause real estate markets to shudder. Little wonder that Chinese property developers tremble with every update.

Mark Carney raises rates from position of weakness

2 Aug 2018

The Bank of England governor nudged up borrowing costs even though growth is tepid and will suffer if Brexit goes badly. The economy’s speed limit has declined since the financial crisis and EU talks will take time to pan out. He had little choice, but may have to reverse course.