Monetary Policy

Mnuchin and Powell create dangerous guessing game

20 Nov 2020

The U.S. Treasury secretary and Fed chief’s spat over unused bailout funds is a Rorschach test. Fiscal hawks may see an attempt to coax Congress into spending elsewhere. Others may see a petty gesture by an outgoing administration. The uncertainty is what poses the greatest risk.

Turkey gives investors early Thanksgiving treat

19 Nov 2020

The new central bank chief hiked a key interest rate to 15% from 10.25%, the biggest tightening in more than two years. He vowed to bear down on inflation and improved transparency by reducing the number of policy rates that matter. It’s a good start at rebuilding market trust.

The Exchange: Investing in a new macroeconomic era

17 Nov 2020

The U.S. faces a paradigm shift, as the era of monetary policy dominance ends and fiscal action becomes the major driver of growth. So argues Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates. He says this means rethinking one’s approach to asset classes.

Republicans try packing the Fed before Trump exits

13 Nov 2020

The U.S. Senate will vote on Judy Shelton’s nomination to the central bank’s board. She was in limbo partly due to fringe ideas, like a return to the gold standard, and has shown her partisan colors. Installing her before the White House changes hands is bad monetary policy.

ECB has chance to avoid Fed’s strategy revamp flaw

12 Nov 2020

Christine Lagarde’s central bank is examining basics, like how it defines its price goal. Its U.S. peer earlier this year switched to aiming for inflation that averages 2% over time. But leaving things as vague as Jerome Powell did undermines efforts to lift price expectations.

Turkey’s new economy team will face fresh problems

9 Nov 2020

President Tayyip Erdogan installed a new central bank boss while his son-in-law quit as finance minister. Credible policymakers are more likely to hike rates. Just as well: without President Donald Trump, Ankara’s foreign policy – and the lira – are more vulnerable to sanctions.

Bank of England offers plaster for Covid-19 wound

5 Nov 2020

Governor Andrew Bailey will buy an extra 150 bln pounds of government debt, allowing finance minister Rishi Sunak to keep spending during a new lockdown. But the pandemic’s structural shifts may leave behind workers who lack the right skills. Only the state can fix that problem.

Powell is Fed boss any U.S. president would keep

4 Nov 2020

The central bank chair will keep monetary policy easy and could get a second term from either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. He’ll have to live with heavy spending and borrowing either way. If the Democrat wins, there is one area that will be a better fit: a focus on racial equity.

Only a twin-track approach will rescue UK economy

2 Nov 2020

Finance minister Rishi Sunak will spend more to soften the impact of a new lockdown and the Bank of England is likely to loosen policy again. It won’t stop insolvencies or economic scarring. Retraining workers of all ages and encouraging productivity-boosting investment is vital.

Europe virus defences can manage one more lockdown

29 Oct 2020

France and Germany are imposing tough restrictions to stem the pandemic. The economic shock should be milder than the first Covid-19 crisis, and government spending and the ECB can cushion the blow. Yet the region would struggle to cope with a protracted shutdown.

Review: Picking the turning point in inflation

16 Oct 2020

In “The Great Demographic Reversal”, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan make a good case for why prices will take off. Ageing societies need more carers and labour scarcity may finally lift wages. But they’re perhaps too sanguine on how soon pandemic-stricken economies can heal.

Corona Capital: Oil, Delta, Hunger

13 Oct 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: OPEC and the International Energy Agency issue forecasts that bode ill for crude demand; the U.S. airline steers through turbulence; and a food crisis is exacerbating problems facing the most vulnerable in society.

The Exchange: The long wait for inflation

6 Oct 2020

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan tackle an issue perplexing policymakers and investors: if, and when, price pressures will rise. The authors of “The Great Demographic Reversal” discuss ageing societies, emerging economies, and why the world won’t follow in Japan’s footsteps.

ECB’s valiant “lowflation” brainstorm has a flaw

30 Sep 2020

President Christine Lagarde outlined several ways the central bank’s strategy might adapt to a world where prices rise too slowly, not too fast. For all its merits, the exercise assumes rate-setters have full control over inflation. The past decade shows they don’t.

The Exchange: Inflation nation

22 Sep 2020

The Fed’s new rate-setting philosophy is a game-changer, and hawks have become an endangered species in D.C. So argues David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. The central bank may boost inflation, he suggests – but its blunt tools could cause damage.

Corona Capital: Newspaper rivals, College football

17 Sep 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: the Wall Street Journal hits up the New York Times’ printing presses; U.S. college football’s Big Ten makes a comeback.

Jay Powell kills inflation-focused central banking

27 Aug 2020

The Fed chief will now accept overshoots above the 2% target that his monetary policy has in any event failed to hit. Instead, the U.S. central bank’s new mission statement targets robust labour markets more aggressively. It's a recipe for ultra-easy policy more of the time.

Fed policy review will leave market put untouched

26 Aug 2020

Chair Jay Powell’s every utterance is being scoured for hints of whether a new framework will introduce innovations like average-inflation targeting. But one thing won’t change. Rate setters will backstop markets, as they have done for a decade, and investors are counting on it.

Guest view: Freeing Abenomics from Abe

26 Aug 2020

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s return to hospital has raised concerns about a change of power. His signature economic policy fell short even before the pandemic. A strong successor could reinvent it, but that seems unlikely, argues ex-BOJ policy board member Sayuri Shirai.

The Exchange: Stephanie Kelton

11 Aug 2020

As budget deficits swell, one of the highest profile advocates of Modern Monetary Theory joins Swaha Pattanaik to discuss her approach to public finances, U.S. presidential hopeful Joe Biden’s economic agenda, how her thinking evolved, and her experience of academic gatekeeping.