Monetary Policy

Rishi Sunak pays if BoE inflation bet goes awry

22 Sep 2021

Surging prices mean the UK finance minister has to pay more interest on outstanding debt. Blame Britain’s love of bonds tied to inflation. The bill will be even bigger if price pressures are more stubborn than the Bank of England expects, forcing hasty monetary policy tightening.

Emerging economies face stages of inflation grief

16 Sep 2021

Central banks’ reactions to rising prices come in three steps, BNP Paribas reckons: denial, acceptance, and action. Brazil and Chile are further along, having hiked rates quickly as pressures mounted. Investors will prefer them to countries stuck in the first stage, like Turkey.

IMF skims over non-viral risks to global economy

27 Jul 2021

The emergence of new highly infectious Covid-19 variants could wipe about $4.5 trln off global GDP by 2025, the international lender warned. Its economic update pays less attention to policy missteps, market ructions, or more bankruptcies. Yet these also pose a threat to growth.

ECB’s old problem will defy new strategy

22 Jul 2021

Boss Christine Lagarde revealed the practical consequences of tweaking her inflation target: interest rates may stay at record lows for even longer. But given ultra-easy policy has failed for years to make prices rise faster, the chances of hitting her new goal are no better.

Nigeria flies the flag for corporate tax self-harm

20 Jul 2021

Abuja’s revenue collectors are trying to extract $4.4 bln from South African pay TV provider MultiChoice. Growing climate change pressures require Africa’s top oil producer to wean itself off energy receipts. Ad hoc squeezing of foreign companies is the wrong way to go about it.

Lagarde’s green turn may not need to be that sharp

16 Jul 2021

The ECB boss’s 293 bln euro corporate bond programme may soon tilt toward environmental saints and away from sinners. Too heavy a hand could distort markets and inflate green bubbles. But it’s a big enough change for it not to matter if, as seems likely, the intervention is mild.

Kiwis show world how to deliver sharp policy jolts

14 Jul 2021

New Zealand’s central bank is suddenly halting bond buying in a sign that it may soon raise interest rates. It’s a contrast to the long advance notice that Fed Chair Jay Powell or ECB boss Christine Lagarde need to give investors. The country’s relatively healthy finances help.

Capital Calls: China’s bank reserves

9 Jul 2021

Concise views on global finance: Beijing released more cash into its financial system as growth slows.

Giant leap for ECB is small step for euro zone

8 Jul 2021

The central bank tweaked its inflation target to stress how much it hates falling short of 2%. And boss Christine Lagarde wants to do her bit to fight climate change. The shifts may be a big deal for a cautious institution, but they won’t produce a revolution in terms of results.

The Exchange: Roger Ferguson talks monetary policy

22 Jun 2021

The former Fed vice chair and ex-TIAA CEO joins Swaha Pattanaik to discuss how the central bank is navigating economic recovery and price pressures. He also talks about whether corporate America is living up to its diversity pledges and suggests strategies to speed progress.

Capital Calls: Turkish gas, Generali, Garuda

4 Jun 2021

Concise views on global finance: President Erdogan’s “good news” on hydrocarbons smells off; the Italian insurer’s 1.5 bln euro bid for NN Group’s asset management unit may trigger a shootout; the Indonesian flag carrier’s long struggle to avoid bankruptcy is coming to a head.

Three scarcities make Jay Powell’s life harder

12 May 2021

U.S. inflation soared to 4.2% in April due to pricier raw materials and shortages of some goods. The Fed boss plans to ignore what he views as a short-lived phenomenon. It will only be transient if companies can find and retain workers more easily than is currently the case.

Fed’s Jay Powell picks the road less travelled

27 Apr 2021

The American and Canadian economies are both rebounding. Yet the U.S. central bank boss isn’t about to copy Canada’s bond purchase taper. It’s the difference between traditional and new-school monetary policy, which waits to see sustained inflation rather than anticipating it.

India’s pandemic hell could be purgatory

23 Apr 2021

There is hope rising immunity and the country’s massive vaccine industry will bring a rapid end to the misery brought about by a terrifying second wave of contagion. New Delhi has little room to act if the economy follows hospitals into a state of collapse. Cracks are visible.

Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

25 Mar 2021

President Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt firing of a third central bank governor forced investors to contemplate whether this might precipitate a run on financial assets in other developing markets, including South Africa. Breakingviews columnists discuss the implications.

Turkey’s battered banks face a slow-burn crisis

25 Mar 2021

A plummeting lira creates the risk of a funding squeeze for Garanti BBVA, Akbank, Isbank and others. But they’ve survived past crises without a bank run. The more likely problem for the sector is mounting bad debt, which will drag down returns and capital for years to come.

South Africa offers Erdogan an inflation lesson

23 Mar 2021

A steep plunge in the lira, of the sort seen this week after Turkey’s president fired his central bank boss, usually drags down the rand. Not this time. The South African currency’s resilience shows the value of a credible and independent central bank left free to control prices.

Guest view: Japan’s socialist equity trap

19 Mar 2021

The central bank may tweak its unorthodox ETF buying programme that has put 10% of the Topix index on its balance sheet. Jesper Koll of WisdomTree argues it won’t be enough. The BOJ’s overhang caps the market’s upside, and has infantilised the asset management industry.

Capital Calls: Airline IPO, Turkey’s central bank

18 Mar 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: U.S. regional air carrier Sun Country Airlines’ IPO pop is justified by positive cash flow; Turkey shows how emerging-market policymakers face trickier choices than their rich-world peers.

Lagarde’s yen for consensus will be stress-tested

11 Mar 2021

The ECB will step up the pace of bond-buying to combat a rise in yields. Moving sooner wouldn’t have allowed President Christine Lagarde to get the governing council’s green light. Fast-moving markets may require speedier reactions than her instinct for forging unity permits.