Mining

Bankers may not welcome UK rainmaker’s legal win

14 Mar 2025

Ian Hannam will get over $2 mln from a former client he sued for being ‘pushed out’ of an $18 bln mining merger. For M&A bankers, the dealmaker’s case makes it likelier CEOs pay for advice. But legal blowback risk will also make companies warier of who they consult on big deals.

Ukraine may yet get better of Trump on mining deal

26 Feb 2025

A draft plan to channel some of the country’s mineral wealth to the US looks like an asset grab. But if Volodymyr Zelenskiy can bind the president to the economic future of an independent Ukraine, and the start of its $520 bln reconstruction, Kyiv could still benefit.

Anglo’s self-help plan is working deceptively well

20 Feb 2025

The $41 bln miner’s shares are well below the value of a rejected share-based offer from BHP last year, and CEO Duncan Wanblad is mired in writedowns. But diamond woes are old. And Anglo American’s valuation multiple has at least improved even as its suitor’s stock has dropped.

BHP’s copper dreams get a glimpse at reality

18 Feb 2025

The red metal has grown to almost 40% of the $130 bln miner's EBITDA, in part because prices for its main product, iron ore, fell. It could speed up diversification by buying a rival like Anglo. But with valuations not on his side, CEO Mike Henry is stuck on the slower path.

Glencore’s M&A bind requires bold coal cleanup

17 Jan 2025

The $57 bln miner’s approach to Rio Tinto came to nought, its second thwarted deal in two years. Glencore’s copper unit and low valuation may appeal to partners, but its big dirty fuel business is a downer. Spinning it off isn’t easy, but remains CEO Gary Nagle’s least bad move.

Greenland gambit takes nearshoring to absurd ends

13 Jan 2025

A hostile US takeover of the Danish island would secure control of minerals used to make smartphones and EVs. It also might undercut supply chains and years of chipping away at China’s rare-earths dominance. It’s a classic case of cooperation triumphing over expansionist autarky.

BHP will try a club deal for Anglo American

17 Dec 2024

The Aussie miner is now free to make another takeover proposal for its smaller rival, whose copper assets still appeal to CEO Mike Henry. But paying a big premium looks harder to justify second time round. Partnering with a rival like Glencore or Vale may smooth the way.

Korea’s value push is getting a much-needed spark

11 Dec 2024

President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched coup adds urgency for Seoul to curb the power of family businesses. Even before the political crisis, the KOSPI was one of the world's worst performing major stock indices. That makes $22 bln Korea Zinc's upcoming shareholding meeting a key test.

Mining M&A makes a mockery of windfall taxes

26 Nov 2024

Anglo American has just joined BHP and others disposing of coal assets in securing a cut from new owners if the fossil fuel's price soars. It's savvy but also breezily undercuts their objections to governments pulling similar tricks to reduce costs for consumers.

Gold surge adds glitter to tarnished miners

31 Oct 2024

The yellow metal is up 35% this year as investors fret about inflation. Gold miners like Newmont and Barrick have repeatedly failed to capitalise on the ore’s rising value. But new-found financial discipline and modest valuations present investors with a rare opportunity.

BHP’s dam disaster dealings leave a bad taste

21 Oct 2024

The miner and partners are offering Brazilian authorities $23 bln in damages for a 2015 catastrophe, but with most of it paid over 20 years. And BHP was in hot water trying to hinder a related $47 bln lawsuit in London. Both take the argument of protecting shareholders too far.

Rio’s $6.7 bln lithium bet is a pricey slow burn

9 Oct 2024

The $112 bln miner is paying a 90% premium to buy Arcadium in cash. That’s probably not justified by the synergies – and Rio Tinto has yet to reveal them. Boss Jakob Stausholm can point to forecasts of a lithium demand surge, but right now investors have to take his word for it.

Rio boss may be about to eat his M&A words

7 Oct 2024

Jakob Stausholm is in talks to buy Arcadium Lithium, soon after saying deals only make sense if cost cuts cover the premium. On that score, he can perhaps offer a 40% bump, valuing his prey at $4.2 bln. With one investor wanting double that, Stausholm faces an unpalatable choice.

Hong Kong economic pain is marginal gain for LME

4 Oct 2024

Port activity and land prices have fallen so far that the London Metal Exchange is eyeing warehouses in the financial hub. That may spur more Chinese buyers to use the bourse. But despite more than a decade of Hong Kong ownership, storage in mainland China remains out of reach.

AngloGold’s mid-size miner pounce may set a trend

10 Sep 2024

The US-listed group is paying $2.5 bln for Egypt-focused rival Centamin. High gold prices make it easier for bigger fish to bulk up via share-based deals. Rising production costs and future price volatility suggest more relative minnows could say yes to an adequate premium.

China steel woes will recast miners’ M&A desires

27 Aug 2024

Buying copper-heavy Anglo American would have helped BHP CEO Mike Henry reduce the $140 bln miner's dependence on iron ore. With the steel industry facing a "harsh winter", deals must look ever-more appealing to BHP, Rio and others. But stock price drops make tie-ups more costly.

Glencore may be the next UK listing to head west

7 Aug 2024

The $61 bln miner had planned to spin off its coal unit via a New York IPO. Given the pollutant’s profit remains alluring, it now won’t. But Glencore boss Gary Nagle could weigh up US investors’ greater fondness for fossil fuels, and opt to move the whole company instead.

Rio boss’s M&A red line may come back to haunt him

31 Jul 2024

Jakob Stausholm says the $110 bln miner will only do deals when synergies cover any premium it pays. That's usually sensible. But it might rule out buying early stage projects like rival BHP is in copper. And sometimes longer-term growth trumps shorter-term financial pain.

Anglo American has a job to exit post-BHP hole

25 Jul 2024

The $38 bln miner unveiled better-than-expected half-year earnings. But after fending off his Australian suitor, Anglo boss Duncan Wanblad has to give impatient investors good news on his self-help plans. Coal and diamond headaches make that increasingly hard to do.

Copper’s green step change is an uphill struggle

9 Jul 2024

Supplies of the red metal have to motor if the world is to adequately decarbonise. In this Exchange podcast Tae-Yoon Kim, senior energy analyst at the International Energy Agency, lays out the challenges that need to be overcome if the private sector is going to make that happen.