Metals

Forget COP26. The world needs COPPER 26

5 Nov 2021

The climate shindig is all about cutting demand for fossil fuels. The required flipside is a 2020s surge in production of metals for all those extra wind turbines and electric cars. Stay tuned for a separate forum in which governments and miners thrash out how that might happen.

EU-U.S. green steel deal shows way for COP26

2 Nov 2021

Washington and Brussels will set a common external tariff for dirtier types of the metal. It’s similar in effect to the EU’s carbon border levy, with less of the grief. The lesson for Glasgow negotiators is that sector-based deals may be a safer bet than big multilateral ones.

Moving carbon goalposts will be a wrenching burden

27 Oct 2021

The work required to make a net-zero transition is far harder than regularly announced political targets suggest. A soccer team in Taranto, Italy, home to Europe’s largest and most notorious steel mill, offers a glimpse into the economic struggles facing cities the world over.

Capital Calls: Spanx’s “velvet ghetto”

20 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blackstone’s investment in the undergarments company was closed by an all-woman team. That’s progress, but not the best kind.

Glencore CEO’s top M&A pick is Glencore

15 Oct 2021

With a strategy set under predecessor Ivan Glasenberg, new boss Gary Nagle has few ways to make his mark. Record coal and copper prices and unique cobalt assets mean his own shares look cheap. He could buy them back, but a more striking gambit would be a full sale to Rio or BHP.

Capital Calls: U.S. debt, Hollywood, Blue Prism

28 Sep 2021

Concise views on global finance: Republicans have blocked additional federal borrowing, bringing a default closer; talent agencies CAA, ICM, and Endeavor take different strategic directions; private equity group Vista seems to be getting UK software group Blue Prism cheaply.

Big miners are steeled against falling iron ore

21 Sep 2021

The mineral’s price has collapsed in two months, bucking inflationary trends. Rising supply, China’s cooling economy and changing consumer spending habits portend a further decline. Capital discipline and diversification will cushion the blow for BHP, Rio and Fortescue.

Guinea coup is win for Australia and Brazil

6 Sep 2021

Soldiers have deposed the West African nation’s president, Alpha Condé. Besides disruption to bauxite exports, the upheaval may upend development of the Simandou mine’s 8.6 billion tonnes of iron ore deposits, capable of adding 10% to global output. Rival diggers will be smiling.

Rio Tinto can afford to go halves in Mongolia

3 Sep 2021

The miner’s $14 bln Oyu Tolgoi scheme is over budget and debt-laden, depriving its government partner of a return. Restructuring so only 50% of the project’s free cash pays down debt could restore dividends and win Mongolia over. High copper prices give Rio scope to act.

Glencore can live with a faster coal phase-out

5 Aug 2021

The commodity giant is enjoying soaring prices of everything from copper to coal. New plans to help Asian states shutter coal earlier are a potential cloud. But they could also lead to price-boosting supply deficits, and anyway, Glencore’s metals will fuel the green transition.

Rio Tinto CEO picks cash shower over kitchen sink

28 Jul 2021

Jakob Stausholm is spraying the miner’s shareholders with a hardy $9.1 bln in dividends after his first six months in the job. There’s also plenty to splash out on projects like Serbian lithium. Despite the mopping up required in ESG and beyond, the financial plumbing is sound.

Capital Calls: Glencore chair, Chinese e-commerce

5 Jul 2021

Concise views on global finance: The commodity giant picks a new chair familiar with its stamping grounds; Beijing cranks up the pressure on companies over data abuses.

Russian miner is gold standard in governance chaos

1 Jul 2021

London-listed Petropavlovsk kept CEO Denis Alexandrov even after shareholders blocked his appointment to the board. It follows extended battles between investors that pummelled the $1 bln group’s shares despite a buoyant yellow metal. The latest twist makes a recovery doubtful.

Green megalomania renews $80 bln Congo hydro dream

18 Jun 2021

Aussie mining magnate Andrew Forrest is behind a fresh push to turn the African river’s vast power into energy. Dam-building is a fool’s errand, though, and his Fortescue’s plan to produce hydrogen for export may not stack up financially. Less bombastic alternatives are better.

Russian gold IPO hunters can afford to wait

8 Jun 2021

London listing candidate Nord Gold boasts scale, healthy margins and a decent dividend. But it’s owned by a tycoon and his sons. Given miners’ track record in snubbing minorities, investors may find it preferable to wait for the stalled IPO of peer GV Gold to return.

Capital Calls: Russia and US, Clothing IPOs, Food

3 Jun 2021

Concise views on global finance: The Kremlin tells its national state fund to get out of greenback-denominated assets; Rent the Runway thinks about going public; the FAO’s global food index hits its highest level in nearly a decade.

Rusal’s upside from clean break only goes so far

19 May 2021

The $6 bln aluminium maker’s plan to demerge carbon-heavy assets could unlock value if ESG-focused investors value the other parts more highly. But the greener entity will still have 28% of polluter Norilsk Nickel and the risk of U.S. sanctions snapback. That might cap any gains.

Crazy metal prices inflate miners’ capex conundrum

14 May 2021

Sky-high copper and iron ore values should make the likes of Rio Tinto and BHP invest in extra supply for the green energy transition. But shareholders wary of past write-downs want dividends, not risky new projects. The higher prices climb, the starker the disconnect.

Cobalt angst will turn carmakers into mine owners

10 May 2021

The chip shortage has taught auto groups harsh lessons in supply chain security. Cobalt’s importance to batteries is an existential risk for firms like Tesla and VW. Equity stakes in mines, rather than supply deals, would ease delivery headaches and hedge against price spikes.

UK’s Gupta merits net zero rescue in all senses

1 Apr 2021

The steel entrepreneur’s tottering industrial empire is a tricky candidate for a state bailout. But it could give the government a chance to decarbonise a major source of emissions. Done smartly, it may help Britain hit green goals and stabilise a perennially flaky sector.