Macron lobs petrol on fiery French economic waters 10 Jun 2024 After suffering a beating in European elections, France’s president has called a snap parliamentary poll. Debt investors are already antsy about the country’s yawning deficit. A new electoral battle with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party will hardly help matters.
Modi’s allies will be new defining force for India 7 Jun 2024 Coalition partners may demand special funds for their regions, and ask for key ministries, for supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new government. Handouts can give states an edge to court companies like Tesla. The resource-grab will create tension in the halls of power.
India’s resilient democracy comes with a cost 6 Jun 2024 Narendra Modi will have to rely on a coalition government after a shock upset in the national elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why politicians may dig deeper to support the poor and how power sharing may create challenges for big business.
EU vote is prelude to Europe’s real choice 5 Jun 2024 Some 370 mln voters from 27 member states are set to pick a new assembly. The result will influence how EU government leaders decide who should lead the next European Commission. Backing incumbent Ursula von der Leyen to avoid a chaotic deadlock is in the bloc’s best interest.
India may no longer be Narendra Modi’s 4 Jun 2024 His party is on course to lose its majority and will be at the mercy of allies to form a government. It ends a decade of extraordinary stability in the world’s fifth-largest economy. A market selloff hints at the costs of coalition rule. Growth may slow but there are some gains.
Modi 3.0 offers limited opportunities for the West 3 Jun 2024 Western leaders’ hopes for India as a bulwark against China outweigh their concerns about Narendra Modi’s authoritarian streak. They will have more scope to work with the prime minister during his expected third term. But the overlap of interests and values is limited.
Next UK leader will bang head against fiscal roof 30 May 2024 Britain’s election in July is likely to hand power to the opposition Labour Party. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how constrained finances could mean higher taxes. For business leaders, the promise of more stability may be as good as it gets.
Niel can be less stingy to fulfil his salsa dream 30 May 2024 The French Iliad owner may buy out Millicom, a $4 bln Latin American telco in which he owns a 29% stake. His potential $24-a-share bid implies a tiny 2% premium. Even with the stock up nearly 40% this year, he can offer more for a growing, profitable company.
Failed Anglo bid is net negative for BHP CEO 29 May 2024 Mike Henry has ditched the Australian miner’s $47 bln attempt to buy its UK-listed rival. He misjudged the difficulty of pushing Anglo to divest South African assets. But he avoided upsetting investors by overpaying, and if his target’s breakup plan falters he can try again.
Technocrat PM will save Dutch voice inside the EU 29 May 2024 By choosing civil servant Dick Schoof, The Hague put pragmatism before politics in the premier’s slot. Far-right Geert Wilders won at the polls but elected to pass on the job. This will help the Netherlands keep its sway over key issues like EU debt and the green transition.
Toyota investors can give chair a year for tune-up 29 May 2024 Proxy advisers Glass Lewis and ISS want shareholders not to re-elect Akio Toyoda atop the $300 bln automaker’s board. There’s logic to it. But the former CEO has pledged to address governance problems at subsidiaries. If he doesn’t, it makes a stronger case for booting him out.
CEO pay is hidden factor in US relisting trend 29 May 2024 Plumbing supplier Ferguson almost doubled its boss’s compensation after moving to New York, while $55 bln CRH is reviewing its remuneration after switching too. It’s not something boards like to talk about. But investors might support US-style pay if it attracts the best talent.
Fed should be independent, not untouchable 28 May 2024 Allies of Donald Trump want to blunt the Federal Reserve’s autonomy if the former US president wins a second term. That would be economically disastrous. But a mighty central bank with a $7 trln balance sheet requires better scrutiny, especially outside monetary policy.
Original Davos Man unveils half a succession plan 22 May 2024 World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab will give up executive duties at the group which hosts the annual Swiss conflab. The 86-year-old chairman will doubtless remain its public face. But the shift should make it easier for the WEF to eventually identify his replacement.
JAB’s Buffett impression is a work in progress 22 May 2024 The private European conglomerate, whose $50 bln portfolio includes Pret A Manger and Panera Bread, hired an executive for an insurance push. It makes sense as a funding source, as investors from Warren Buffett to KKR and Apollo proved. The snag is JAB’s patchy investment record.
President’s death makes Iran even less predictable 20 May 2024 The demise of Ebrahim Raisi removes an obvious replacement for the ageing Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Despite a recent attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic’s top figure is a known quantity. The risk is that Iran’s role in a febrile Middle East becomes even harder to gauge.
Ping An wrestles with its HSBC dilemma 17 May 2024 The bank's top owner may reduce its 8% stake a year after its breakup bid failed. It's a fair move given the recent bumper returns and looming succession and growth issues. But HSBC's dividends and arguable undervaluation suggest Ping An won't trim its outsized holding too much.
Rio Tinto may be dark horse in BHP-Anglo saga 10 May 2024 The $120 bln miner may yet crash the Big Australian’s $39 bln merger. Still, if BHP does win Anglo and Glencore is busy integrating its $7 bln Teck deal, Rio’s key mining rivals will be distracted. That may give CEO Jakob Stausholm a clearer run at the likes of First Quantum.
HSBC’s big pair of shoes will be hard to fill 9 May 2024 The surprise departure of boss Noel Quinn, who dramatically reshaped the firm, puts the globe-straddling bank on the spot: appoint a steward of its strategy from within, or a new thinker from outside? In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the $170 bln choice.
Total’s US re-listing idea could backfire 8 May 2024 The $170 bln oil major is considering decamping to the United States to court oil-friendly investors. Yet getting included in the big stock index would mean cutting French roots, and a valuation boost looks unlikely. Staying at home may also be better for its growing power unit.